Jeremy's Knesset Insider

News Recap

• Political Crisis: The Haredi parties remain outside of the government, with no resolution on their return.
• Gaza Update: Ceasefire negotiations remain stalled, with no progress on the hostage front. Discussions within the government and security establishment now focus on expanding the war effort into Gaza City and the refugee camps in the middle of the strip.
• Coalition Reshuffle: The second phase of the coalition reshuffle was completed this week. A special Knesset plenum approved two new deputy speakers, and five Knesset committees confirmed new committee chairs, including MK Bismuth replacing MK Edelstein as Chair of the Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee.
• Haredi Draft: MK Bismuth announced that he intends to take time to review the issue before presenting his version of a new Haredi draft bill, delaying any potential committee vote until the end of the summer recess.

How It Played Out in the Polls

• Only three polls were published this week.
• Likud continues to lead, but Bennett 2026 remains a strong second. The Bennett bloc gains momentum in both the Tatika and Lazar polls, while the Netanyahu bloc secures a clear majority only in the Filber poll.
• The Democrats and Shas are now competing for third-largest party, while Yisrael Beiteinu and Yesh Atid are locked in a race for fifth place.
• Blue & White passes the electoral threshold in all three surveys, while Smotrich makes it through in two out of three.

What to Expect Next

• Knesset Silence: While committees continue to meet during the recess, the Knesset will go completely silent between August 13 and September 3, with no committee activity scheduled during that period. Meetings are expected on both August 13 and September 3 themselves.
• Political Crisis: There are no indications that the coalition crisis will be resolved before the Knesset goes silent.
• Gaza Update: With Knesset activity on hold, government attention is expected to shift fully to the question of whether to push deeper into Gaza.
• Coalition Reshuffle: The reshuffle appears largely complete, though a few final committee membership appointments may be made before the silence.
• Polls: Fewer seat projections are expected, with public opinion polling likely to focus on Gaza developments. I don’t plan to post an update next week unless there’s a major political development and will most likely resume coverage at the start of September.

Poll #	Conducted by	Published by	Sample Size	Date	Margin of Error
1	Tatika	Zman Israel	404	August 6, 2025	±4.8%
2	Filber	Channel 14	441	August 7, 2025	Not stated
3	Lazar/Panels	Maariv	504	August 6–7, 2025	±4.4%

Seats

Party	Zman Yisrael	Channel 14	Maariv
Likud	26	34	23
Bennett 2026	23	14	21
Democrats	10	11	10
Shas	10	11	9
Yisrael Beiteinu	11	8	8
Yesh Atid	10	8	7
United Torah Judaism	7	8	7
Otzma	6	6	6
Ra’am	6	5	5
Hadash-Ta’al	5	5	5
Blue & White	6	5	4
Religious Zionism	–	5	4
Eisenkot	–	–	11

Blocs:

Poll	Netanyahu Bloc	Bennett Bloc	Arab Bloc
Zman Yisrael	49	60	11
Channel 14	64	46	10
Maariv	49	61	10

Additional Questions (Maariv Poll):

Question	Result
Should Israel pursue a deal to release hostages in exchange for ceasefire and withdrawal?	Yes – 57% No – 30% Don’t know – 13%
Whom do Israelis support in the Gaza war strategy debate?	Chief of Staff (ceasefire) – 46% Netanyahu (continue war) – 32% Don’t know – 22%
Who is to blame for failed hostage deal negotiations?	Hamas – 66% (44% solely, 22% mainly) Israel – 15% Both equally – 13% Don’t know – 6%

News Recap

• The Haredi parties have not rejoined the coalition.
• There is no new Haredi draft bill.
• No Gaza ceasefire deal has been reached.
• The main Knesset event this week was the appointment of MK Milwidsky as Appropriations Committee Chairman. He subsequently resigned as one of the deputy speakers.

How It Played Out in the Polls

• Likud holds a two-seat lead over Bennett 2026 in the Tatika poll, is even with it in the Panels poll, and maintains its usual lead in the Filber poll.
• The Democrats tie or edge out Yisrael Beitenu for third place in each poll this week.
• For the first time since Eisenkot’s departure, Gantz passes the electoral threshold in all polls.
• Smotrich passes the threshold only in the Filber poll.
• The Netanyahu bloc leads in the Filber poll.
• The Bennett bloc reaches 60 seats in the Tatika poll and 61 or more in the Lazar polls.

What to Expect Next

• The Knesset will hold a special plenum session on Monday to approve two new deputy speakers.
• The House Committee will vote on a proposal to appoint five new committee chairs, including Bismoth.
• The Defense and Foreign Affairs Committee will meet to approve Bismoth’s appointment as chair, replacing Edelstein.

Poll #	Conducted by	Published by	Sample Size	Date	Margin of Error
Poll 1	Tatika	Zman Israel	404	July 30, 2025	±4.8%
Poll 2	Filber	Channel 14	564	July 31, 2025	Not specified
Poll 3	Panels/Lazar	Maariv	511	July 30–31, 2025	±4.4%
Poll 4	Direct Polls/Sharon	i24NEWS	633	Last Week (broadcast Sunday)	±3.8%
Poll 5	Maagar Mochot/Katz	Yisrael Hayom	510	July 28–29, 2025	±4.4%

Seats:

Party	Poll 1A	Poll 2A	Poll 3A	Poll 3B	Poll 3C
Likud	26	33	25	25	21
Bennett 2026	24	16	25	23	19
The Democrats	11	13	12	10	10
Yisrael Beitenu	11	8	12	9	9
Shas	9	11	9	9	9
UTJ	7	8	8	8	8
Yesh Atid	8	6	8	7	7
Otzma	7	6	7	7	6
Ra’am	6	6	6	6	6
Hadash-Ta’al	5	5	4	4	4
Blue & White	6	4	4	4	4
Religious Zionism	—	4	2.7%	2.9%	2.4%
Balad	—	2.3%	1.9%	1.5%	1.5%
Eisenkot	—	—	—	8	4
Miluim Party	—	—	—	—	13

Blocs:

Poll	Netanyahu Bloc	Bennett Bloc	Arab Bloc
Poll 1A	49	60	11
Poll 2A	62	47	11
Poll 3A	49	61	10
Poll 3B	49	61	10
Poll 3C	44	66	10

Additional Questions:

Poll	Question	Responses
Poll 1B	Do you support permanent annexation of parts of Gaza?	53.2% oppose, 38.8% support, 7.9% undecided
Poll 2B	Do you support immediate annexation of Gaza and Jewish settlements?	51% support, 47% oppose, 2% undecided
Poll 3D	Is there a famine in Gaza?	47% no (Hamas propaganda), 41% yes (of which 23% care about it, 18% don’t care), 12% unsure
Poll 3E	Fear of antisemitism when flying to Europe?	61% fear, 31% do not fear, 8% unsure
Poll 4B	Preferred approach in war with Hamas?	48% continue fighting until Hamas surrenders, 45% seek diplomatic solution, 7% undecided
Poll 4C	Will replacing Yuli Edelstein solve the draft law crisis?	51% no, 28% yes, 19% depends on the plan, 2% undecided
Poll 4D	Did Netanyahu–Edelstein relationship influence Edelstein’s actions?	47% yes, 38% no, 15% don’t know

Yisrael Hayom – 20 Years After Disengagement Poll (Poll 5)

Poll	Question	Responses
Poll 5A	Was the 2005 Gaza disengagement a mistake?	76% yes, 24% no
Poll 5B	Did October 7 strengthen or weaken your view on disengagement?	70% today i’m more opposed, 30% today i’m more supportive
Poll 5C	Should there be a future disengagement from the West Bank/Judea & Samaria?	64% no, 36% yes
Poll 5D	Should Jewish settlements in Gaza be reestablished?	52% support, 48% oppose

Support for Gaza Resettlement by Group

Group	Support	Oppose	Don’t Know
Haredim	83%	5%	12%
Religious	67%	17%	16%
Secular	29%	50%	21%
Left-Wing Voters	20%	—	—

I would be appreciative if you let me know if you like the new format, thanks.