Jeremy's Knesset Insider

The latest Panels poll has Bennett 2026 with a ten-seat advantage over Likud. In the race for third place, Golan has 11, Lieberman and Ben Gvir have 10 each. If Bennett did not run, then Likud would be in first place with 22 seats and enjoy a five-seat advantage over Golan and Lieberman, who are both tied at 17.

It is worth noting that in a scenario where Bennett does not run, the opposition parties cannot reach 61 seats without the Arab parties. If Bennett does run, together with the opposition bloc, they will receive 65 seats without the Arab parties.

Panels conducted a poll of 508 people on 16-17 of April 2025 with a 4.4% margin of error that was published by Maariv on 18 April 2025.

Additional Questions:

Do you think it would be right for Ronen Bar to resign now on his own initiative in order to maintain the Shin Bet’s state status?
50% Yes, 26% No, 24% Don’t Know
Notes: 81% of coalition – yes, 47% of opposition – no
What do you think the Shin Bet’s considerations are in relation to investigating the leaks? Are they objective or biased?
35% Biased, 22% Objective, 32% Don’t know
Notes: 66% of coalition- biased, 59% of opposition – objective
Do you support or oppose a deal in which all the hostages would be released in exchange for a cessation of hostilities and a withdrawal from the Gaza Strip?
62% Support, 21% Don’t Support, 17% Don’t Know
Notes: 89% of opposition – support, 46% of coalition – don’t

After Netanyahu’s visit to the White House, Bennett 2026 remains at 29 seats, Likud drops to 18, and Lieberman finishes third with 11 seats in the latest Panels poll. Direct Polls, known as the outlier pollster and the only pollster to poll without Bennett 2026, saw Likud jump to 33 seats following the visit, and Lieberman jumped to second place with 18 seats. A Midgam poll from Sunday, before the trip, put Bennett 2026 ahead of Likud for the first time, with 23 seats to Likud’s 22. In addition, once again Smotrich only passes the election threshold under direct polls. Midgam puts Balad ahead of Smotrich.

If we take the Panels and Midgam polls and add them to the latest Kantar and Maagar Mochot polls, we get a clearer picture with the average. Bennett leads Likud by five and a half seats. In the race for third place, no fewer than seven parties are within three seats of each other. At the bottom of the table, Raam is slightly above the Hadash-Taal alliance, and Balad remains below the electoral threshold. Smotrich remains below the threshold.

Bennett 2026 takes five seats away from the coalition parties in the Panels poll compared to three seats in the Midgam poll. The overall result is that the coalition drops to an average of 47 seats. The Zionist opposition bloc with Bennett 2026 will receive 63 seats without the Arab parties.

It is worth noting that with the resignation of MK Almog Cohen to accept a position as Deputy Minister in the Prime Minister’s Office, the coalition seat distribution was redistributed. Smotrich returns to seven seats and Ben Gvir drops back to six seats. Cohen is expected to run in the upcoming Likud primaries and not return to the Otzma list.

The Knesset returns from recess on May 4th.

Panels – Maariv Poll

Midgam – Channel 12 Poll

KnessetJeremy Weekly Poll Avg

Bennett 2026 gets 29 seats in the latest panel poll conducted for Maariv. Likud gets 21, Democrats 10 and the rest of the field remains in single digits. The current coalition loses 8 seats if Bennett runs. Perhaps most significantly, Smotrich crosses the threshold if Bennett does not run.

Direct Polls also released a poll. For some reason, Channel 14 is only broadcasting polls without Bennett 2026, despite the new party registration. Smith has not released a public poll all month. Midgam and Maagar Mochot have not released a poll this week. The current average is based on polls from the last few days by panels and Kantar, balanced by the latest polls from Midgam and Maagar Mochot.

Radio Interview with KAN English’s Mark Weiss:

Naftali Bennett is getting 27 seats in the first poll conducted and published following the registration of his new party, Bennett 2026. Likud is getting 20 seats in the poll of 600 people. Bennett got 24 seats and Likud 22 seats in a Kantar poll last week. Perhaps even more significantly, Bennett is grabbing five seats that would otherwise have gone to the parties in the current coalition.