Panels conducted a poll of 517 people with a 4.4% margin of error that was broadcast by Radio 103 FM on Jan 25 2021.
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
31 [35] Likud (Netanyahu)
16 [16] Yesh Atid (Lapid)
14 [03] New Hope (Saar)
11 [03] Yamina (Bennett)
10 [15] The Joint List (Odeh)
07 [09] Shas (Deri)
07 [07] United Torah Judaism (Litzman)
07 [07] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)
05 [03] Meretz (Horovitz)
04 [12] Blue & White/Israel Resilience (Gantz)
04 [02] Religious Zionist (Smotrich)
04 [00] The Israelis (Huldai)
Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold
2.6% [00] New Economy (Zalika)
2.4% [03] Labor (Michaeli)
1.8% [00] Otzma (Ben Gvir)
Under 1%
0.7% [00] Tnufa (Shelach)
0.6% [01] Gesher (Orly Levy)
0.2% [03] Telem (Yaalon)
0.2% [00] Israeli Veterans (Yatom)
0% [01] Bayit Yehudi (Moshe)
0% [00] Democratic Party
0% [00] Tzomet (Green)
0% [00] Am Shalem (Amsalam)
Scenario Poll: Huldai+Labor
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
31 [35] Likud (Netanyahu)
15 [16] Yesh Atid (Lapid)
13 [03] New Hope (Saar)
11 [03] Yamina (Bennett)
10 [15] The Joint List (Odeh)
07 [09] Shas (Deri)
07 [07] United Torah Judaism (Litzman)
07 [07] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)
07 [03] The Israelis (Huldai) + Labor
04 [12] Blue & White/Israel Resilience (Gantz)
04 [03] Meretz (Horovitz)
04 [02] Religious Zionist (Smotrich)
Additional Question:
Who is most suited for the position of Israel’s Prime Minister?
32% Netanyahu, 21% Saar, 12% Lapid, 11% Bennett, 10% Don’t know, 3% Gantz
Some Have Said That Huldai’s “The Israelis” Party Is The” New Labor” Party; Others Have Felt That Yesh Atid Will Inherit Most Of Labor Voters, That Explains “The Israelis” Party’s Poll Showings As Well As Yesh Atid’s Recent Temporary Increase In Poll Numbers. Well, I Don’t Believe Either Is True. “Labor” Is “Labor”, It Will Not Implode, It Will Pass The Threshold, Survive, And Transform. Same For Kahol/Lavan- Hosen L’yisreal, I Believe It Will Retrieve Some Of The Center-Left Votes That Currently Showing Supporting Saar’s “New Hope” Party. Meretz Will Obviously Also Survive. It Is Conceivable That There Will Be No Mergers On The Left- Except Labor-Gesher May Be. “The Israelis”, “New Economy” “Tnufah” And Telem Will Probably Fizzle Out On Their Own Without Mergers, With Their Support Going back To Other Leftists.
“New Hope” Is Showing 14 Seats: 2-3 New Seats From Right Voters, And The Rest From The Old Kahol/Lavan Aggregate Block (5-6 Right Voters, And 6-7 Center-Left Voters.) Saar Can Not Hold On To All The Center-Left Voters, Some Will Revert Back To Hosen L’yisrael 2-3, And The Rest Will Stay With Saar (They Are The Anti-Netanyahu “Witch Hunters” Who Would Join Any Party -Right Or Left- Just To bring The Prime Minister Down.) It’s Just Not Gonna Happen.
My Advise To Yamina Is Not To Believe Their Poll Numbers, They Are Highly Exaggerated. And We’ll See What Happens With The “Religious Zionists” Block. Meanwhile Shas Will Have At Least 9 Seats, And UTJ 8 Or Seven Depending On What Happens With That Seat They Are Always Fighting Yamina And “Religious Zionists” For. I See No Change With Yisrael Beitenu. The Joint Lest? Time Will Tell, But It Will Probably Splinter.
This is the first time i believe the right-religious have the majority without Saar (62 seats). I think its Bibi’s best shot: letting Lapid lead the opposition and making sure dati leumi votes don’t get lost.
I see 60. How do you figure 62?
My bad 60. Still noticeable 🙂
We really need to wait to see if the splinter parties continue on with their road to nowhere or do they join with the bigger parties to have a clear idea of what will be. Religious Zionists (not bennet) may merge giving 1-3 more seats and lefty/anti-netanyahu parties may merge as well. also the fireworks of the new parties may wear down (like usually happens) and saar/huldai may very well get much less…