Project HaMidgam conducted a poll of 916 people with a 3.5% margin of error that was broadcast by Channel 13 on January 2 2020.
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
36 [33] Blue & White (Gantz)
34 [32] Likud (Netanyahu)
13 [13] The Joint List – Hadash-Taal-Raam-Balad (Odeh)
08 [03] HaYamin HeHadash (Bennett)
07 [09] Shas (Deri)
07 [07] United Torah Judaism (Litzman)
06 [08] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)
05 [06] Labor (A.Peretz)
04 [05] Democratic Union (Horowitz)
Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold
2.9% [04] United Right List + Otzma (R.Peretz)
00 [00] All Others
Phase 2 Recommendations:
58 [54/57] Center-Left-Arab Bloc (Nominated Gantz in Phase 2)
56 [55] Right-Religious Bloc (Nominated Netanyahu in Phase 2)
06 [08/11] Pushing Unity Government (Did not nominate)
*Balad which was part of the Joint List withdrew the recommendations of their 3 MKs.
Scenario Poll: Labor & Democratic Union unite
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
35 [33] Blue & White (Gantz)
33 [32] Likud (Netanyahu)
13 [13] The Joint List – Hadash-Taal-Raam-Balad (Odeh)
10 [11] Labor (A.Peretz) + Democratic Union (Horowitz)
08 [03] HaYamin HeHadash (Bennett)
07 [09] Shas (Deri)
07 [08] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)
07 [07] United Torah Judaism (Litzman)
Phase 2 Recommendations:
58 [54/57] Center-Left-Arab Bloc (Nominated Gantz in Phase 2)
55 [55] Right-Religious Bloc (Nominated Netanyahu in Phase 2)
07 [08/11] Pushing Unity Government (Did not nominate)
Additional Questions:
Who is more qualified to serve as Prime Minister?
41% Netanyahu, 33% Gantz, 13% Neither, 12% Don’t know
Do you support Netanyahu’s immunity bid?
50% No, 27% Yes, 14% No opinion, 9% Don’t know
Labor/Gesher isn’t uniting with anyone, they are sure to cross the threshold with 5/6 Seats. The Democratic Union is at Major Risk of Elimination (Just as Jeremy Predicted in the Run Up to the Last Election.) Meretz can’t pass the threshold without Major Israeli Arab Vote which now appears unlikely since Israeli Arabs no Longer feel as Junior Partners and will vote for Joint List (~14 Seats.) And If Democratic Union Accepts First 4 on the list for Meretz and form one List, they still likely could come up short. Here is a surprise, only two seats worth of Zehut Voters Voted in September; One Seat Went to Kahol/Levant and the Other Seat To Yitzrael Beitenou. Netanyahu Needs to recapture these seats and may need to get Feiglain Involved, He Also needs to get Kahlon involved in the campaign. After United Right get done with their Bickering, I now see them getting 6 Seats. That could go down to five or up to seven depending on the Campaign’s Progress. Yamin Hadash needs to run with Likud.