Midgam conducted a poll of 513 people with a margin of error of 4.4% that was published by Walla on October 7 2019. It was conducted between October 3-6.
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
33 [33] Blue & White (Gantz)
33 [32] Likud (Netanyahu)
13 [13] The Joint List – Hadash-Taal-Raam-Balad (Odeh)
09 [09] Shas (Deri)
07 [08] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)
07 [07] Yamina (Shaked)
07 [07] United Torah Judaism (Litzman)
06 [06] Labor (Peretz)
05 [05] Democratic Union (Horowitz)
Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold
00 [–-] Otzma (Ben Gvir)
Phase 2 Recommendations:
57 [54/57] Center-Left-Arab Bloc (Nominated Gantz in Phase 2)
56 [55] Right-Religious Bloc (Nominated Netanyahu in Phase 2)
07 [08/11] Pushing Unity Government (Did not nominate)
- Balad which was part of the Joint List withdrew the recommendations of their 3 MKs.
Scenario Poll: Saar leading Likud
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
33 [33] Blue & White (Gantz)
26 [32] Likud (Saar)
13 [13] The Joint List – Hadash-Taal-Raam-Balad (Odeh)
12 [07] Yamina (Shaked)
10 [09] Shas (Deri)
08 [07] United Torah Judaism (Litzman)
07 [08] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)
06 [06] Labor (Peretz)
05 [05] Democratic Union (Horowitz)
Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold
00 [–-] Otzma (Ben Gvir)
Phase 2 Recommendations:
57 [54/57] Center-Left-Arab Bloc (Nominated Gantz in Phase 2)
56 [55] Right-Religious Bloc (Nominated Netanyahu in Phase 2)
07 [08/11] Pushing Unity Government (Did not nominate)
Additional Questions:
Do you support a national unity government led by Prime Minister Netanyahu?
50% No, 42% Yes, 8% Don’t know
Right voters: 54% Yes, 41% No, 5% Don’t know
Center & Left: 68% No, 26% Yes, 6% Don’t know
Who should lead the Likud?
35% Netanyahu, 29% Saar, 20% Don’t know, 8% Other, 5% Edelstein, 2% Erdan, 1% Katz
Right voters: 54% Netanyahu, 24% Saar, 9% Don’t know, 5% Other, 5% Edelstein, 2% Erdan, 1% Katz
Center & Left: 41% Saar, 29% Don’t know, 13% Other, 8% Netanyahu, 6% Edelstein, 2% Katz, 1% Erdan
Jeremy's Knesset Insider 
if there is another election, isn’t there a good chance that the Democratic Union won’t make the threshold thereby letting the right parties garner more seats and having enough for a majority?
Hi Jeremy. I remember you saying you would make a post to discuss the accuracy of your predictions. When is this post coming out? It seems to me like you strayed to far from your polling average, but I’d be interested to see your assessment.
This is pathetic. One of the definitions of insanity is doing the same thing over and over expecting a different result. The voting public has to decide one way or the other. And by voting public I mostly mean the idiots intending to vote for Lieberman the THIRD time.
Time to lower the electoral threshold back down. It is obviously too high for this Knesset to function.
But then you have the issue of small mini-parties getting too strong…