Maagar Mochot conducted a poll of 603 people with a margin of error of 4% that was broadcast by I24 News & published by Yisrael Hayom on September 6 2019. The poll was conducted on September 5th.
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
31 [38] Likud (Netanyahu & Kahlon)
30 [35] Blue & White (Gantz, Lapid, Yaalon & Ashkenazi)
11 [10] The Joint List – Hadash-Taal-Raam-Balad (Odeh, Tibi & Abbas)
11 [05] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)
08 [06] Yamina (Shaked, Peretz, Smotrich & Bennett)
08 [08] Shas (Deri)
07 [08] United Torah Judaism (Litzman & Gafni)
06 [06] Labor (Peretz & Levy)
04 [04] Democratic Union (Horowitz, Shafir & Barak)
04 [–] Otzma (Ben Gvir)
Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold
The other parties are all under 1%
Phase 2 Recommendations:
58 [60] Right-Religious Bloc (Have ruled out nominating Gantz for PM)
51 [55] Center-Left-Arab Bloc (Have ruled out nominating Netanyahu for PM)
11 [05] Pushing Unity Government (Lieberman)
Additional Question:
Who is more suited to serve as Prime Minister?
40% Netanyahu, 23% Gantz, 19% Other answers, 5% Shaked, 4% Peretz, 3% Lieberman, 3% Lapid, 3% Barak
Not honest just saying pushing ‘unity’ for Lieberman in stage 2 – in that stage he must recommend who he feels should lead government- who do you predict?
Stage 2 isn’t strictly a vote, but a talk with the President, describing how his party will vote in stage 3. Lieberman has been saying that during stage 2, in that talk, he’ll promise to vote “yes” for a PM candidate if and only if this PM candidate has the support of both Likud and B&W.
The President, Rivlin, would take that into consideration and then recommend a PM candidate for a yes/no vote.
In all cases when a Prime Minister candidate receives recommendations from parties that are backed by 61 MKs or more the President must give them the mandate to form a coalition.
In cases where no candidate reaches 61 there are various ways for the President to make his decision. In Israeli history when no candidate could reach 61 the President usually granted the mandate to whoever had the most recommendations despite not hitting the magic 61 number.