Midgam conducted a poll of 508 people with a margin of error of 4.4% that was broadcast by Channel 12 on Aug 13 2019. The poll was conducted on Aug 12.
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
30 [38] Likud (Netanyahu & Kahlon)
29 [35] Blue & White (Gantz, Lapid, Yaalon & Ashkenazi)
11 [10] The Joint List – Hadash-Taal-Raam-Balad (Odeh, Tibi & Abbas)
11 [06] Yamina (Shaked, Peretz, Smotrich & Bennett)
10 [05] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)
08 [08] United Torah Judaism (Litzman & Gafni)
07 [08] Shas (Deri)
07 [06] Labor (Peretz & Levy)
07 [04] Democratic Union (Horowitz, Shafir & Barak)
Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold
2.9% [00] Zehut (Feiglin)
2.7% [00] Otzma (Ben Gvir)
Phase 2 Recommendations:
56 [60] Right-Religious Bloc (Have ruled out nominating Gantz for PM)
54 [55] Center-Left-Arab Bloc (Have ruled out nominating Netanyahu for PM)
10 [05] Pushing Unity Government (Liberman)
Addtional Questions:
Who is more suited to be Prime Minister?
41% Netanyahu, 32% Gantz, 24% Neither, 6% Don’t know
Who would you like to see as the leader of the Likud after Netanyahu?
23% Don’t know, 22% Saar, 16% Other, 12% Erdan, 12% Regev, 9% Katz, 6% Edelstein
Note: This question was asked to a separate poll of 152 Likud voters.
Hi,
The recommendations presentation is not exact. The Arab bloc has ruled out nominating Netanyahu as PM AND has ruled out nominating Gantz as PM if we remember what happened at the previous election.
So it should be
56 for the right religious bloc
43 for center left bloc
10 for unity government
11 for no recommendations
Regards
There are three blocs:
Right-Religious Bloc (Have ruled out nominating Gantz for PM)
Center-Left-Arab Bloc (Have ruled out nominating Netanyahu for PM)
Pushing Unity Government (Liberman)
It is much easier to follow who the parties have ruled out instead of looking at nomination commitments as you suggest. The Joint List has not ruled out nominating Gantz (https://www.israelhayom.co.il/article/679289). Last time they put out a list of demands for Gantz to agree to and he chose not to agree to them. Lieberman is a wildcard who might nominate himself or abstain as the Joint List did in the previous election.
It looks like it’s headed for another stalemate. A stalemate can be avoided if 10% of Yamina’s voters decide to switch to parties that are further to the right — with a little less than half of that 10% to Zehut and a little more than half to Otzma. This would enable Bibi to get a majority — barely — without having to rely on Avigdor Lieberman.
If Likud and Blue & White are forced to form a unity government, I hope that Likud’s numbers are high enough so that Likud can demand that Yisrael Beitenu not be a part of the government.
Looking at the actual Results of this Poll:
49.66% (59.6 Seats) of Respondents Support Right Wing Coalition (Likud, Yamina, UTJ, Shas, Zehut, Otzmah)
50.34% (60.4 Seats) Support the rest (Kahol/Levant, Yitzrael Beitenou, Labor, Democratic Union, Joint List.)
Reality is that Right Wing Coalition Will Get 63 seats, and everyone knows it, and that is why they are falling over each other running to join a Wider Government. That Is Fine: Let The Healing Begin, With Bibi On Top: Good For All.
P.S.: By Elections Time there will be no wasted votes.