Direct Polls conducted a poll that was broadcast on Aug 5 2019 by Channel 13.
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
30 [38] Likud (Netanyahu & Kahlon)
29 [35] Blue & White (Gantz, Lapid, Yaalon & Ashkenazi)
11 [10] The Joint List – Hadash-Taal-Raam-Balad (Odeh, Tibi & Abbas)
11 [06] United Right (Shaked, Peretz, Smotrich & Bennett)
10 [05] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)
08 [04] Democratic Union (Horowitz, Shafir & Barak)
07 [08] United Torah Judaism (Litzman & Gafni)
07 [08] Shas (Deri)
07 [06] Labor (Peretz & Levy)
Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold
2.2% [00] Zehut (Feiglin)
1.9% [00] Otzma (Ben Gvir)
Phase 2 Recommendations:
55 [60] Right-Religious Bloc (Have ruled out nominating Gantz for PM)
55 [55] Center-Left-Arab Bloc (Have ruled out nominating Netanyahu for PM)
10 [05] Pushing Unity Government (Liberman)
Jeremy's Knesset Insider 
Just shows you that if Otzma and Zehut put away their pettiness and joined together or with some other right wing party, Lieberman would have no leverage.
I am so frustrated that the New Right didn’t join with Zehut and have Otzma join back with the other list. Countless votes will be lost because Shaked had to have a ‘big’ list to lead. Which will do no good because it will split apart right after the election.
Not really…
According to the current poll, they’d get ~5 seats: roughly 2 taken from the right, 2 from the left and 1 randomly from one of the three groups (right, left, lieberman).
So the right would end up with ~57-58 seats, still short of a majority
Note, this is an approximation:
This poll is suggesting that out of 125 voters:
55 are voting for Likud/UR/UTJ/Shas
55 are voting for B&W/TJL/DU/Labor
10 are voting for Lieberman
3 are voting for Zehut
2 are voting for Otzma
Since 3 and 2 are less than 3.25% of the 125 voters, they get ignored and we have the results above (only 120 valid votes).
If they merged, or if their votes moved to the Likud/UR/UTJ/Shas block, that block would get about 60 votes out of 125 voters, so still short of 50% of all seats..
Some Polls intentionally give right wing parties heavier than actual weight, in order to galvanize their supporters to vote for them in order to cause the loss of right wing votes; While Otzmah’s Real Weight is 1.73% only 0.53% intend to vote for them currently; And while Zehut Real Weight is 1.89% only 0.71 aim to vote for them. Still the combined 1.24% could make a difference. So, Both Parties need to Integrate Their Agendas As Possible Into Likud, And Pull Out Of The Race.
Disclaimer: I am not directly or indirectly insinuating that channel 13 or the poll’s other entities are complicit; They just happen to be victims of circumstances since polling entities at times share or copy each other or coordinate.
United Right to get 7 Seats, and Likud 42.
OK, Just so to be clear:
1- If the electoral threshold was- let’s say 1.5%, then all parties to the right of Likud could run separately and garner a total of 11 seats( 3 for New Right, 2 each for Bayet Yahudi, National Union, Zehut, and Otzmah.) But the Electoral threshold is 3.25%, so:
2- If all five parties run on the Same List, they will only garner 7 Seats, and many voters will either stay home- small number- or vote for other parties primarily Likud and Haredim.
3- If only Three parties (New Right, Bayet Yahudi, National Union) run on one list, like it is now, they would still garner 7 seats because votes lost will equal votes gained. There are Dynamic Repulsions within these five parties that prevent them from coalescing.
So, the current right wing situation is optimal, and the best way it could be except that Zehut and Otzmah will not be directly represented in Knesset, but that can be remedied with indirect representation.
Lastly, I expect many Zehut and Otzmah voters to vote for Likud, and I have noticed that a sizeable segment will vote for the Haredim.
Thank You Jeremy for Providing a Forum where I can explain myself after so many friends wanted me to do so.
Hi,
Given our very short memory, it would be interestig to have a table comparing polls and actual results after elections, by pollster.
Cordially
El mar., 6 ago. 2019 a las 18:57, Jeremy’s Knesset Insider () escribió:
> Knesset Jeremy posted: ” Direct Polls conducted a poll that was broadcast > on Aug 5 2019 by Channel 13. Current Knesset seats in [brackets] 30 [38] > Likud (Netanyahu & Kahlon) 29 [35] Blue & White (Gantz, Lapid, Yaalon & > Ashkenazi) 11 [10] The Joint List – Hadas” >