Midgam conducted a poll of 502 people with a 4.4% margin of error that was conducted and broadcast on July 21 2019 by Channel 12.
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
30 [39] Likud (Netanyahu & Kahlon)
29 [35] Blue & White (Gantz, Lapid, Yaalon & Ashkenazi)
11 [10] The Joint List – Hadash-Taal-Raam-Balad (Odeh, Tibi & Abbas)
09 [05] Yisrael Beitenu (Liberman)
08 [08] United Torah Judaism (Litzman & Gafni)
07 [08] Shas (Deri)
07 [06] Labor (Peretz & Levy)
06 [00] Hayamin Hehadash (Bennett & Shaked)
05 [05] United Right List (Peretz & Smotrich)
04 [04] Meretz (Horowitz)
04 [00] Israel Democratic Party (Barak)
Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold
1.8% [00] Zehut (Feiglin)
Under 1%
00 [00] Otzma (Ben Gvir)
Phase 2 Recommendations:
56 [60] Right-Religious Bloc (Have ruled out nominating Gantz for PM)
55 [55] Center-Left-Arab Bloc (Have ruled out nominating Netanyahu for PM)
09 [05] Pushing Unity Government (Liberman)
Scenario Poll: Shaked led United Right List & Barak-Meretz joint list
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
29 [35] Blue & White (Gantz, Lapid, Yaalon & Ashkenazi)
28 [39] Likud (Netanyahu & Kahlon)
13 [05] United Right List (Shaked, Peretz & Smotrich)
11 [10] The Joint List – Hadash-Taal-Raam-Balad (Odeh, Tibi & Abbas)
09 [05] Yisrael Beitenu (Liberman)
08 [08] United Torah Judaism (Litzman & Gafni)
07 [08] Shas (Deri)
07 [06] Labor (Peretz & Levy)
04 [04] Meretz (Horowitz)
04 [–] & Israel Democratic Party (Barak)
Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold
1.9% [00] Zehut (Feiglin)
Phase 2 Recommendations:
56 [60] Right-Religious Bloc (Have ruled out nominating Gantz for PM)
55 [55] Center-Left-Arab Bloc (Have ruled out nominating Netanyahu for PM)
09 [05] Pushing Unity Government (Liberman)
Jeremy's Knesset Insider 
Game set and match to Lieberman. Netanyahu should be starting to get worried. The way the polls are looking at the moment it is highly unlikely that Netanyahu can get more then 58 seats even in the best scenario.
The most likely outcome is that there will be unbearable pressure on Netanyahu to stand down as PM as Gantz, and Barak will not join a government led by Netanyahu.
If Likud is then led by Saar we could have a government of Likud and Blue and White.
They will then have a choice of including the Charedim or Yisroel Beitunu. I guess that will depend if the Charedim will join a government with Lapid.
Interesting times ahead!!
why do you believe these polls before the election campaign gets under way, believe it not. I am saying Lieberman will lose a significant number of these seats the polls claim he has to Likud. why? Likud voters didn’t suddenly change voting intentions, why would they? I am saying with absolute confidence Lieberman does not have these votes and these polls are all suspect
I am also skeptical of the predicted doom for the Likud. I do think they’ll lose a few mandates to Yamin HaHadash, but I don’t see 4 mandates worth defecting to YB.
I’m not seeing the appeal for the Likud voter to flip to Liberman, it’s basically guaranteeing that a) Netanyahu will fall and b) increasing the chance of a left wing govt or left wing influence in govt. Why would any Likud voter choose that?
That aside, I’ve always felt like polls here in the US are all carried out by people and organizations with an agenda, be it to further one candidate or party or simply to set a partisan narrative which affiliated political players can then cite as a “trend”. Maybe it’s the same in Israel?
Who controls the polling companies in Israel is also a very good question. Maybe Jeremy can fill us in on who controls companies like Midgam? Is there any known political bias?
Comments on this site
Polls show left won’t get a majority:
Left voters: OK, but what if the Arabs formed a blocking majority and the Haredim decided to sit with their arch nemesis Lapid then we’d have a coalition right?
Polls show right won’t get a majority:
Right voters: Poll fake.
I’m not saying the polls are “fake” Mosh, but human biases and political agendae undoubtedly play a factor.
The polls aren’t necessarily wrong or even especially biased – the issue is the way in which they’re published. Unlike almost everywhere else in the world, polling results in Israel are defined in a finite number of seats rather than using a % of the vote to give a potential range of seats. Add in the amount of small parties near the threshold, and the MOE and it creates an unusual polling environment.
In short, for each poll you can give or take 3-5 seats and it is still considered accurate.
I do wonder in the event of a unity gov’t if there will be an effort to change the electoral system.
The bottom line is, scrolling thru these polls is that Shaked does not change the net right-left balance in any significant way. A religious party should have a religious leader. Rafi Peretz is a fine and qualified person who should lead his own party as he did successfully in last election. If Bennett and Shaked wish to join, they are welcome, but not as leaders. Their betrayal last time hurt the right terribly. In addition, if they have so many votes, why didn’t they make it in? So the polls are very inaccurate to begin with.