Jeremy's Knesset Insider

8 Comments:

• 

  Judah

  July 17, 2019 at 4:09 pm

  I am reminded of a famous scene at the end of Casablanca where Captain Renault say “round up the usual suspects”, all these polls are just that. For one here is my prediction and come back and thrash me after the elections if I am wrong. 1. UTJ and Shas will each get more seats than Liberman and 2. Barak’s party will not pass the threshold.

  Reply
• 

  Shlomo Maistre

  July 17, 2019 at 9:05 pm

  So long as Bibi is head of Likud, there cannot be a right-wing government that actually drafts the Haredim into the IDF and breaks the Chief Rabbinate’s stranglehold on so much of civic life like marriage, conversion etc.

  One day I hope to see something that resembles my dream government comprised of:
  1. Likud
  2. Yisrael Beiteinu
  3. New Right-Zehut
  4. *
  * = either a small, moderate centrist party (like if Gantz has merged with Ya’alon and Kahlon instead of Lapid) or Chardal alliance of Bayit Yehudi, Tkuma and Otzma

  Reply
  • 

    judah

    July 18, 2019 at 12:20 am

    personally I can’t agree with you on this, I am a traditional Jew with great respect for our religion and traditions. On religious matters I have great faith in our Chief Rabbi’s, Rabbi Yosef is a considerable scholar. In my view it is important that the Rabbinate follow a strict kosher line. You can’t have a wishy washy Rabbinate, what standards and example would that set for the rest.
    As far as I am concerned if there is a problem , it is an organisational one, not a religious one. Most people have no problem with the service and standards of the Rabbinate. It is the secular media that exaggerates the few and it seems to me you have swallowed their line.
    If you want a quick conversation , be a Muslim, just say I am a Muslim and you are in. Be serious and don’t fall into the anti religious and anti Rabbinate trap of the secular media.

    Reply
    • 

      Shlomo Maistre

      July 18, 2019 at 12:53 am

      1. “In my view it is important that the Rabbinate follow a strict kosher line”

      why are following a strict kosher line and breaking the Chief Rabbinate’s stranglehold on so much of civic life mutually exclusive?

      2. “You can’t have a wishy washy Rabbinate, what standards and example would that set for the rest.”

      I was arguing for breaking the Chief Rabbinate’s stranglehold on civic life, not for a wishy washy Rabbinate

      3. Broadly speaking, there is going to need to be a change in the status quo because
      A) very high percentage of ultra orthodox adults do not work, contribute little in taxes, receive great sums of money from the government through welfare programs and yeshiva money, and do not serve in the IDF hardly at all
      B) The ultra orthodox are a rapidly growing percentage of the Israeli population

      4. Personally, I can envision many different solutions to resolve the ultra orthodox crisis – some are rather simple and some would require serious ingenuity and creativity.
  • 

    Zachary

    July 18, 2019 at 1:40 am

    That is a far right extremist. My dream government.

    1. Hadash
    2. Meretz

    This is of course highly unrealistic, but it is my dream government.

    More realistically:

    1. Hadash
    2. Meretz
    3. Labor
    4. Yesh Atid

    Reply
    • 

      Shlomo Maistre

      July 18, 2019 at 2:06 am

      In April 2019 Likud, Yisrael Beiteinu, New Right, and Zehut received votes corresponding to 39, 5, 3, and 3 Knesset seats, respectively. That’s 49.

      Not far from a government.

      Add Chardal alliance of Bayit Yehudi, Tkuma, and Otzma Yehudit and/or a moderate, centrist Gantz-Ya’alon party and you have a government.

      Hadash and Meretz got 10 in April 2019 election. Labor got 6 and Yesh Atid got 15. So that’s 31 = half-way to a government!
• 

  Shlomo Maistre

  July 17, 2019 at 9:53 pm

  The center-left is best served by forming these four party alliances:
  1. Meretz-Hadash-Ta’al = ~9 seats
  2. Labor-Gesher-Barak = ~7 seats
  3. Yesh Atid = ~15 seats
  4. Gantz-Ya’alon = ~20 seats
  Then with all or part of the Ultra Orthodox they have a government.
  Gantz-Ya’alon party has much better chance of getting a Likud MK to jump ship by dangling ministries in front of their noses than Blue and White does.

  Reply
  • 

    Chip

    July 20, 2019 at 7:52 am

    Your proposal is highly unrealistic. You exaggerated the numbers Yesh Atid and Gantz are expected to get and even so, your proposed Hail Mary coalition is just 51 seats.

    To make up the difference, you propose they get 1 Orthodox party (still not enough MKs) or all the Orthodox parties. The thing you fail to consider is why would the Orthodox join a govt made of anti religious and Arabs? Hint: they wouldn’t.

    Next, what Likud MK would jump ship to a leftist coalition of 51 MKS? Just writing that doesn’t make it an actual thing. There’s zero hard evidence to suggest this would happen so this is just fantasy.

    Fourth, Hadash and Taal are currently part of the UAL and are polling well. Why would they scrap that promising list and join forces with Meretz who barely crossed the threshold?

    Finally, Arab parties have never been a part of a coalition and likely won’t be in the future.

    These points aside, your left wing coalition dream scenario has every chance of occurring lol.

    Reply

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