Panels conducted a poll that was published on June 7 2019 by Maariv.
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
37 [39] Likud (Netanyahu & Kahlon)
33 [35] Blue & White (Gantz, Lapid, Yaalon & Ashkenazi)
08 [08] United Torah Judaism (Litzman)
07 [08] Shas (Deri)
07 [06] Hadash-Taal (Odeh & Tibi)
07 [05] Yisrael Beitenu (Liberman)
06 [05] United Right List (Peretz, Smotrich & Ben Gvir)
06 [00] Hayamin Hehadash (Bennett & Shaked)
05 [04] Meretz (Zandberg)
04 [06] Labor (Gabbai)
Under 3.25% electoral threshold
2.4% [04] Raam-Balad (Abbas)
2.2% [00] Gesher (Orly Levy)
Less than 2%
00 [00] Zehut (Feiglin)
71 [65] Right-Religious Bloc
49 [55] Center-Left-Arab Bloc
I’m not sure Beiteinu should count as “Right – Religious” considering that the whole reason for this election is his refusal to join the Right – Religious government. Also worth noting that there’s since the Arab parties didn’t endorse Ganz, there’s no meaningful “center left Arab” bloc.
Might be more accurate to just list “Government” and “Opposition” like Wikipedia does.
Liberman has ruled out Gantz or any other non-right wing candidate for Prime Minister. That sound like right bloc to me.
The point in calculating the center-left-Arab bloc is to see how many seats reject a right bloc government. There is no difference between the Arabs and the rest of that bloc on that particular issue.
There is technically no coalition/opposition at the moment. There are no coalition agreements for the 21st Knesset. Remember that the Arab parties voted with Netanyahu to call new elections. Does that mean because they voted with the government on the most important bill of the 21st Knesset that they are in the coalition? Of course not.
Once the right squanders five or so of these mandates (out of leaders’ egos), it’ll be more like 66/54 and another mess. I can only believe this 71 if United Right and Hayamin Hehadash form a technical bloc which hasn’t happened yet and, according to Bennett’s ego, discussions won’t even commence until well into July. And Feiglin increasingly sees “failed candidate and perpetual gadfly” as a good business model going forward. He won’t be in a technical bloc with any other party and risk actually taking on the burden of responsibility. Guaranteed.
Ra’am Balad has never failed to get in one way or another. Pollsters may underestimate the Arab sector’s almost magical ability to locate enough votes on election day.