Knesset Jeremy’s Weekly Polling Average – The Israeli Poll of Polls
Current update: Sunday March 24th 2019.
| Place | Party | Leader | Seats | KnessetJeremy AVG | Change | Week 12 AVG | Current |
| 1st | Blue & White | Gantz | 31 | 30.3 | -1.5 | 31.8 | 11 |
| 2nd | Likud | Netanyahu | 29 | 29 | 0.5 | 28.5 | 29 |
| 3rd | Labor | Gabbai | 9 | 9 | 0.5 | 8.5 | 18 |
| 4th | Hadash-Taal | Odeh | 8 | 7.6 | 0.4 | 7.2 | 6 |
| 5th | United Torah Judaism | Litzman | 7 | 6.6 | -0.2 | 6.8 | 6 |
| 6th | United Right List | Peretz | 6 | 6.3 | -0.7 | 7 | 5 |
| 7th | HaYamin HeHadash | Bennett | 6 | 5.7 | -0.1 | 5.8 | 3 |
| 8th | Meretz | Zandberg | 6 | 5.4 | -0.6 | 6 | 5 |
| 9th | Shas | Deri | 5 | 4.9 | -0.6 | 5.5 | 7 |
| 10th | Zehut | Feiglin | 5 | 4.4 | 0.1 | 4.3 | 0 |
| 11th | Kulanu | Kahlon | 4 | 3.7 | 0.5 | 3.2 | 10 |
| 12th | Yisrael Beitenu | Liberman | 4 | 3.7 | 0.5 | 3.2 | 5 |
| 13th | Raam-Balad | Abbas | 0 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 2.2 | 7 |
| 14th | Other | 30 Others | 0 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0 | 8 |
| Right-Religious Bloc | 66 | 64.3 | 0.1 | 64.2 | 66 | ||
| Center-Left-Arab Bloc | 54 | 55.7 | -0.1 | 55.8 | 54 |
Note #1: The electoral voting threshold is equivalent to 3.25 percent of total votes, equivalent to approximately four parliamentary seats. Parties currently polling below the threshold, including parties listed as “other” are weighted down to zero in the polling average to allow this polling model to maintain a simplified 120-seat framework.
Note #2: This average is based on the last 7 polls that were released from March 17 to March 22 (2 Panels, Smith, Maagar Mochot, Midgam, Panel Project HaMidgam & Direct Polls).
Note #3: Read – Israeli politics ‘101’: Electing a prime minister and forming a government coalition – at: https://www.jns.org/israeli-politics-101-electing-a-prime-minister-and-forming-a-coalition/
Note #4: Voter exchange agreements have been signed between Labor & Meretz, HaYamin HeHadash & Yisrael Beitenu, Likud & United Right List, Shas & UTJ. The deadline for submitting voter exchange agreements is March 29.
Note #5: Yisrael Beitenu & Kulanu both passed the electoral threshold in 6 of 7 polls this week. Raam Balad passed in 5 of the 7 polls this week. Gesher passed in 1 poll this week.
Note #6: The right-religious bloc of Likud-UTJ-URL-HaYamin HeHadash-Shas-Kulanu-Yisrael Beitenu-Zehut is polling at a high of 68 and a low of 62. The center-left-Arab bloc of Blue & White-Labor-Hadash-Taal-Meretz (including Raam-Balad & Gesher when they pass the threshold) is polling at a high of 58 and a low of 52.
Note #6: 47 parties registered to participate in the April 9 Election. 4 parties have withdrawn to date.
Compiled for the Jewish News Syndicate (JNS.org)
Jeremy's Knesset Insider 
Can you explain what Voter exchange agreements are? Thanks
On Sun, 24 Mar 2019, 15:24 Jeremy’s Knesset Insider, wrote:
> Knesset Jeremy posted: ” Knesset Jeremy’s Weekly Polling Average – The > Israeli Poll of Polls Current update: Sunday March 24th 2019. > PlacePartyLeaderSeatsKnessetJeremy AVGChangeWeek 12 AVGCurrent1stBlue & > WhiteGantz3130.3-1.531.8112ndLikudNetanyahu29290.528.5293rdLabor” >
Voter agreements are a method of converting excess votes into knesset seats as follows: let’s say that, after eliminating all the votes for small parties that get less than 3.25% of the vote, the 120 knesset seats are divided up among 4.8 million votes – or 40,000 votes per seat. Now imagine Likud gets 1.4 million votes. So 1.2 million of those make up 30 seats, but the leftover 20,000 aren’t enough for a 31st seat. However, URP gets 300,000 votes, so they get 7 seats for the first 28,000 and have 20,000 votes remaing, as well. The vote sharing agreement says, in this case the Likud (as the bigger party) can take URP’s excess votes and earn a 31st seat.
Sorry. Math correction. Likud in my fake scenario would get 1.22 million votes, not 1.4
Small detail, the excess votes don’t necessarily go to the bigger party. Maybe they go in this case because they both have the same number of excess votes (I don’t know what’s the tie breaking rule here), but in general they should go to whoever has the most surplus votes.
Weekly graph:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1d49cWZJMC3-5ZcaNh6MeVVg-EMdEPdRuaMZS3cPygeI/edit?usp=sharing