Panels conducted a poll of 998 people with a 3.4% margin of error that was published by Walla on March 19 2019.
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
32 [29] Likud (Netanyahu)
29 [11] Blue & White (Gantz, Lapid, Yaalon & Ashkenazi)
09 [05] Hadash-Taal (Odeh & Tibi)
08 [18] Labor (Gabbai)
07 [05] United Right List (Peretz, Smotrich & Ben Gvir)
06 [06] United Torah Judaism (Litzman)
06 [05] Meretz (Zandberg)
06 [03] Hayamin Hehadash (Bennett & Shaked)
05 [05] Yisrael Beitenu (Liberman)
04 [10] Kulanu (Kahlon)
04 [07] Shas (Deri)
04 [–-] Zehut (Feiglin)
Under 3.25% electoral threshold:
2.9% [01] Gesher (Orly Levy)
2.5% [08] Raam-Balad (Abbas)
Under 1%
00 [–-] Yachad (Eli Yishai)
00 [–-] Magen (Gal Hirsch)
00 [01] Tzomet (Oren Hazan) and others
68 [66] Current Right-Religious Coalition+Y.B.
52 [54] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition-Y.B
Additional Questions:
Who is more suited to be Prime Minister?
46% Netanyahu, 28% Gantz, 18% Neither, 8% Don’t know
Likud voters: 95% Netanyahu, 3% Neither, 1% Don’t know, 1% Gantz
Blue & White voters: 86% Gantz, 6% Neither, 4% Don’t know, 4% Netanyahu
How has Gantz’s telephone-gate influenced your vote?
73% Didn’t influence, 23% Negatively influenced, 4% Positively influenced
Likud voters: 58% Didn’t influence, 37% Negatively influenced, 4% Positively influenced
Blue & White voters: 89% Didn’t influence, 8% Positively influenced, 3% Negatively influenced
Should Netanyahu be investigated in regards to case 3000?
47% Yes, 35% No, 19% No opinion
Well, that poll is unlikely to calm Gantz down any. I really do hope Raam-Balad misses the threshold, but I kind of hope Gesher passes it.
The difference between Gesher/Raam-Balad (both on the likely opposition to likud, and below the threshold) and Kulanu/Shas/Zehut (the three on the likely coalition with likud and above) is pretty small, probably less than 1% of respondents.
The 68-52 difference hangs on those 1%s.
But it’s interesting how Likud has held steady, while B&W is gradually losing votes. Whom are they losing votes to?
Likely Zehut, which pulls in voters from all over the spectrum, as has finally began to appear on polls.
Labor is up. There hasn’t been much shift between the two blocs in terms of actual voters – the threshold just makes thing look more gittery than they are.
The over all block votes confirm a consolidation of the right – religious votes after the initial reaction and press coverage of the AG and Netenyahu. I am pretty certain that Shas will get significantly more than 4 mandates that Walla has them persistently at.
With these poll results – I think the police should open an investigation into the unreported, in-kind campaign contribution the Supreme Court just gave Netanyahu.
I’m a bit skeptical about these polls showing an increased majority for the right-religious block. I’ts unprecedented in post 1973 Israeli history for the one side to gain seats following an election victory. The exception being Begin in 1981, but that was coming off Camp David – Bibi hasn’t achieved anything as momentous.
Nor does he have an impressive opponent though.
Are Gantz/Yaalon/Lapid really worse than Livni/Herzog?
Nobody could be worse than Livni,and I would not say these numbers are right either, I would just say that the right – religious are more likely to have a majority in seats and certainly comfortably more so in actual votes cast
I’d argue that Gantz is weaker in a number of ways than Herzog.
What happened with the i24 poll showing Gantz up 7 mandates?
it would be an utterly rogue poll and should be treated with disdain
The Iran Phone-Gate scandal from benny ganz has had an affect on his poll numbers, thats why he fell in the polls under likud.