Direct Polls conducted a poll of 718 people with a 4.2% margin of error for Kan (Channel 11) that was broadcast on Feb 6 2019.
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
32 [30] Likud (Netanyahu)
22 [-–] Israel Resilience (Gantz) + Telem (Yaalon)
11 [11] Yesh Atid (Lapid)
07 [03] Hayamin Hehadash (Bennett & Shaked)
07 [01] Taal (Tibi)
06 [18] Labor (Gabbai)
06 [12] The Joint (Arab) List
06 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
05 [07] Shas (Deri)
05 [05] Yisrael Beitenu (Liberman)
05 [05] Bayit Yehudi (Peretz) + Tekuma (Smotrich)
04 [10] Kulanu (Kahlon)
04 [05] Meretz (Zandberg)
00 [01] Gesher (Orly Levy)
00 [06] Livni Party – under electoral threshold
00 [–-] Otzma (Ben Ari) – under electoral threshold
00 [–-] Zehut (Feiglin), Yachad (Eli Yishai), Green Leaf, Magen (Gal Hirsch), Eretz Chadasha (Eldad Yaniv), Achi Yisraeli (Adina Bar Shalom)
64 [66] Current Right-Religious Coalition+Y.B.
56 [54] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition+Gantz-Y.B
Scenario Poll #1: If Ashkenazi joins Gantz
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
32 [30] Likud (Netanyahu)
28 [-–] Israel Resilience (Gantz) + Telem (Yaalon) + Ashkenazi
07 [11] Yesh Atid (Lapid)
07 [03] Hayamin Hehadash (Bennett & Shaked)
07 [01] Taal (Tibi)
06 [12] The Joint (Arab) List
06 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
05 [18] Labor (Gabbai)
05 [05] Yisrael Beitenu (Liberman)
05 [05] Bayit Yehudi (Peretz) + Tekuma (Smotrich)
04 [10] Kulanu (Kahlon)
04 [07] Shas (Deri)
04 [05] Meretz (Zandberg)
63 [66] Current Right-Religious Coalition+Y.B.
57 [54] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition+Gantz-Y.B
Scenario Poll #2: If Lapid joins Gantz
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
35 [30] Likud (Netanyahu)
35 [11] Israel Resilience (Gantz) + Telem (Yaalon) + Yesh Atid (Lapid)
06 [03] Hayamin Hehadash (Bennett & Shaked)
06 [01] Taal (Tibi)
06 [12] The Joint (Arab) List
06 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
05 [07] Shas (Deri)
05 [05] Yisrael Beitenu (Liberman)
04 [18] Labor (Gabbai)
04 [10] Kulanu (Kahlon)
04 [05] Bayit Yehudi (Peretz) + Tekuma (Smotrich)
04 [05] Meretz (Zandberg)
65 [66] Current Right-Religious Coalition+Y.B.
55 [54] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition+Gantz-Y.B
Scenario Poll #3: Gantz + Gesher
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
33 [30] Likud (Netanyahu)
25 [-–] Israel Resilience (Gantz) + Telem (Yaalon) + Gesher (Levy)
09 [11] Yesh Atid (Lapid)
07 [03] Hayamin Hehadash (Bennett & Shaked)
06 [12] The Joint (Arab) List
06 [07] Shas (Deri)
06 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
06 [01] Taal (Tibi)
05 [18] Labor (Gabbai)
05 [05] Bayit Yehudi (Peretz) + Tekuma (Smotrich)
04 [10] Kulanu (Kahlon)
04 [05] Yisrael Beitenu (Liberman)
04 [05] Meretz (Zandberg)
65 [66] Current Right-Religious Coalition+Y.B.
55 [54] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition+Gantz-Y.B
Additional Questions:
Do you believe Netanyahu or Saar in the “President Rivlin attempt to nominate Saar instead of Netanyahu for Prime Minister”?
48% Saar, 29% Netanyahu, 23% Don’t know
Likud voters: 64% Netanyahu, 26% Don’t know, 10% Saar
Did they really only report the changes to the Likud and Gantz’s party in the two scenario polls? No indication of where the extra seats (to both Gantz and the Likud!) came from? If so, that’s serious pollster malpractice, that is.
I agree it’d be nice to have more information about the results, in general.
But I think they probably don’t ask all the 718 people all the scenarios, and so maybe they don’t have enough responses about the scenarios to give the estimated seats for the smaller parties..
Note, there are 10 parties with 4-7 votes, that suggests 10 parties with roughly 20-35 votes, among the 720. I’m not sure you can say much about those differences if you divide the sample in half, one for each scenario…