Channel 2 Poll: Likud 24, Yesh Atid 22, Zionist Union 18, Bayit Yehudi 12, Joint List 12

Midgam conducted a poll of 525 people with a 4.4% margin of error that was broadcast by Channel 2 on Dec 4 2017.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

24 [30] Likud
22 [11] Yesh Atid
18 [24] Zionist Union
12 [08] Bayit Yehudi
12 [13] The Joint (Arab) List
07 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
07 [06] Yisrael Beitenu
07 [05] Meretz
06 [10] Kulanu
05 [07] Shas
00 [–-] Yachad, Yaalon, Zehut (as other) under threshold

61 [67] Current Right-Religious Coalition
59 [53] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition

Additional Questions:

Who is more suited to serve as Prime Minister – Netanyahu or Gabbai?

39% Netanyahu, 25% Neither, 19% Gabbai, 17% Don’t know

Who is more suited to serve as Prime Minister – Netanyahu or Lapid?

35% Netanyahu, 30% Neither, 20% Lapid, 14% Don’t know

Updated Knesset Jeremy Polling Averagehttps://knessetjeremy.com/knessetjeremy-polling-average-the-israeli-poll-of-polls/

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2 Comments:

  • Adam

    I hope this is wrong – totally unstable coalition. Could Yesh Atid join up with a Likud under a different leader?
    Likud, YA, BY, Kulanu and Yisrael Beitenu: 71 seats i total.

  • TheInterestingTimes

    All the recent polling looks like trouble for Netanyahu.

    To begin with the obvious, these polls have him just one seat away from a situation where he is not able to put together a coalition anything like his current one. A new coalition that includes the left would also be difficult to put together. Labor and Yeah Atid would know they have maximum leverage, and probably would insist on Netanyahu’s departure as a condition for joining a Likud-led government.

    Even if the current governing parties combined win a majority, it’s looking like a much slimmer majority than the already-rickety coalition has now. That’s going to mean more concessions to hold the coalition together. Likely to be especially troublesome is Bennett, the perennial thorn in Likud’s side who has an amazing inability to play nice with his “natural partners” on the right. Netanyahu can expect more of the same brinksmanship and blackmail from Bennett as he’s had to deal with in the past. As in previous votes, Likud’s fortune depends on Bayit Yehudi’s ruin, and Netanyahu’s best strategy will be to actively work for a repeat of Likud’s cannibalization of BY’s vote share in the last election. Of course, acrimonious negotiations might be avoided if Bennett were removed from heading Bayit Yehudi, but that’s unlikely as the party is increasingly his own personality cult.


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