Geocartography conducted a poll that was broadcast by Channel 1 on September 9 2016.
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
27 [11] Yesh Atid
23 [30] Likud
13 [13] The Joint (Arab) List
11 [24] Zionist Union
11 [08] Bayit Yehudi
09 [06] Yisrael Beitenu
09 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
07 [05] Meretz
06 [10] Kulanu
04 [07] Shas
62 [67] Current Right-Religious Coalition
58 [53] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition
Note: This is the worst poll for the Likud-Bayit Yehudi-Yisrael Beitenu-UTJ-Kulanu-Shas bloc since the term started.
Jeremy's Knesset Insider 
http://www.jerusalemonline.com/blogs/op-ed-the-torture-of-minority-groups-and-the-silence-of-the-bangladeshi-government-23360
On Sep 11, 2016 12:37 PM, “Jeremys Knesset Insider” wrote:
> Knesset Jeremy posted: “Geocartography conducted a poll that was broadcast > by Channel 1 on September 9 2016. Current Knesset seats in [brackets] 27 > [11] Yesh Atid 23 [30] Likud 13 [13] The Joint (Arab) List 11 [24] Zionist > Union 11 [08] Bayit Yehudi 09 [06] Yisrael Beiten” >
So Lapid could become PM, just as his opposite number in the US, Donald Trump, might be. Why wouldn’t YB join him? For that matter, is it that unlikely that Bennet would?
If you give Bennett & Liberman senior coalition portfolios, what do you have left for Zionist Union, Meretz and other Yesh Atid members?
Would Meretz and ZU really have much of a choice in supporting Lapid? Their bargaining hands would be very, very weak.
Total rubbish, why anyone takes this absurdity seriously is beyond me. If another 10 polls were to say the same, it will still not transpire in a real election. ZU will poll much more, UTJ will never get 9 mandates and will always get less than Shas. YA will get a lot less seats and Bibi will still beat everyone else. Bibi is a winner full stop.
Lapid’s problem is that it’s hard to see how he gets to 61 seats for a coalition. The Haredim are still resistant, because they aren’t convinced they’ll have to deal with him. He can get Yisrael Beiteinu or Meretz, but he’d have to give Avigdor Lieberman an amazing deal to get both. Bennett could join, but not if his was the only rightwing party, and probably not unless Prime Minister Lapid is already a fait accompli.
One advantage Lapid would have in forming a cabinet is that he could give almost all the portfolios away to coalition members. Because Yesh Atid rank and file members are dependent on Lapid to keep their jobs, Lapid is protected from a rebellion of disappointed Yesh Atid would-be ministers.
To make it happen, the centrist (including YB) and leftist parties would need 61 seats between them. (In this actual poll, they only got 60. In this scenario, I give one extra seat to Zionist Union). That possibility would allow this Yair Lapid Fantasy Cabinet:
Parties: Yesh Atid (27 seats), Zionist Union (12), Yisrael Beiteinu (9), Kulanu (6), Meretz (7)
PM: Yair Lapid (Yesh Atid)
DM: Avigdor Lieberman (YB)
FM: Yitzhak Herzog (ZU)
Treasury Minister: Moshe Kahlon (Kulanu)
Justice: Tzipi Livni (ZU)
Education: Shai Piron (Yesh Atid)
Interior: Uzi Landau (YB)
Religious: Elazar Stern (Yesh Atid)
Health: Yael German (Yesh Atid)
Welfare: Meir Cohen (Yesh Atid)
Housing: Shelly Yakimovitch (ZU)
Internal Security: Yoav Galant (Kulanu)
Transportation: (ZU)
Labor: (ZU)
Agriculture: (Kulanu)
Science: Zehava Galon (Meretz)
Immigration: (YB)
Tourism: (Meretz)
Culture: (Kulanu)
Knesset Finance Committee: YB
Knesset Foreign Affairs/Defense Committee: ZU
A nightmare scenario ,fanciful thinking, but thankfully this will not materialise
They don’t necessarily need to get to 61 if the Joint List agrees to abstain. Just 54.
Phase 3 requires 61 MKs to approve the government, abstaining is not enough. Abstaining is enough during the middle of the term to prevent attaining the 61 MKs necessary to topple the government during a no-confidence motion. I don’t see a reason why the Joint List would agree to be a “rubber stamp” in their eyes and not receive anything for their trouble.
Gotcha.
I agree that they’d have a price, but I don’t think that would be insurmountable, and not necessarily cabinet seats. Look at the polls of Joint List supporters from the last election. Wasn’t it around 80% that wanted them to join a coalition? And even 28% who supported joining a coalition on the right? At least the Hadash MKs are on the table.
I don’t think any of them are on the table. Herzog built his entire case on the fact that he wasn’t disqualifying them and he failed miserably (even with Hadash). I don’t see anyone to the right of Herzog like Lapid or a former IDF COS like Ashkenazi or Gantz doing any better.
Don’t polls have the IDF as one of the more trusted institutions even among Israeli Arabs?
I don’t see how Herzog “failed miserably” – he didn’t have the votes to get things done with or without them. That’s pretty different from a situation where the right/religious block falls below 60.
I haven’t seen a poll of Israeli Arabs that placed the IDF as one of the more trusted institutions, although historically the level with Israeli Arabs has been so low with all of the institutions that it is possible, but not notable.
The reason I say Herzog “failed miserably” is that Herzog said very clearly what his plan was and the Arab MKs mocked him in campaign events and panels. There was not a single Joint List MK who said they would consider it. In fact, Herzog’s public attempt to get the Joint List to realign the voter exchange agreements to maximize the anti-Netanyahu bloc also failed, despite internal pressure from Hadash.
It is true that Herzog didn’t have the votes to get things done with or without them. That is partially because of Lapid who made a campaign pledge to nominate Herzog and decided to not honor that pledge. The major reason was not the Joint List or Yesh Atid, the situation was the right/religious bloc had over 61 and that was enough. I’ll remind you that back in 2009 Livni won more seats than Netanyahu and couldn’t form a coalition because the right/religious bloc was over 61.