Phase 2 Prediction Analysis
Yesterday I focused on Phase 1.
Two days ago I posted the Knesset Jeremy Model Prediction for 2015.
Zionist Union 25
Likud 22
The Joint (Arab) List 12
Yesh Atid 12
Bayit Yehudi 12
Kulanu 9
Shas 7
UTJ 7
Yisrael Beitenu 5
Meretz 5
Yachad 4
I listed the two most likely scenarios for Phase 2:
Possible Netanyahu Phase 2: Likud (22), Bayit Yehudi (12), Kulanu (9), Shas (7), UTJ (7), Yisrael Beitenu (5), Yachad (4) =66
Possible Herzog Phase 2: Zionist Union (25), The Joint (Arab) List (12), Yesh Atid (12), Kulanu (9), Meretz (5) =63
Timeline between Phase 1 and 2, and exactly how Phase 2 works:
Tomorrow at 10 PM Israel time the voting will end and election polls will be closed. Those who enter the polling station before 10 PM will still be allowed to vote. Each of the 10,119 polling stations across 3,200 sites will have a committee of three people, representing three different parties and those three people will tally the votes by hand. The party representatives will text the results to their headquarters so that the Party Leaders know the results before the television journalists. The official results will be entered into the computer and published on the Central Elections Committee website http://bechirot.gov.il/ as the night goes on.
The focus will be on the exit polls until the middle of the night when a good percentage of the vote will have been counted. By the morning we should have most of the votes in and the Phase 1 results should be rather clear. The “double-envelope” votes will not be included in these initial results. These are votes by citizens who voted overseas or in Israeli army bases, specialized handicap stations, hospitals, jails or polling station committee members. These votes will be counted afterwards in the Knesset itself. Expect a slight shift of a seat-or-two in the final Phase 1 results after the double-envelope votes are counted.
Phase 2: The newly elected Knesset will be sworn in on March 31st. We will not have a government, but we should know who will get the first crack at putting together a government by that date. President Rivlin is expected to meet with the Knesset factions in an official capacity on March 24th, but he is most likely going to already start working unofficial channels after the election results are clear.
The law for some reason does not take the size of a party into account. The law requires President Rivlin to sit with all of the newly elected lists before making a decision on who should get the first crack at forming a new government. President Rivlin is looking to pressure all of the parties to make a decision, but most likely he will not need to. The last time someone didn’t receive a majority of votes in Phase 2 or the first person to receive that nod was not able to form a government was back in the 1980s. Historically, the issue that forced national unity governments was that the two largest parties had too many seats and it was impossible to form a coalition with the few small parties that passed the threshold in lower single-digits. This all changed with the rise of the middle-sized “kingmaker” parties. The unofficial negotiations that are conducted between Phase 1 and Phase 2 have always enabled one of the Prime Minister candidates to reach enough support to get the first crack.
Prediction:
Bottom line my prediction is that it will not be in President Rivlin’s hands. Someone is going to get a majority. The President has also made it clear that he will do everything in his power to force the parties to make a choice and not drag it out.
The parties visit the President in order of party size. Zionist Union will nominate Herzog. Likud will nominate Netanyahu. The Joint List party head who is from Hadash will nominate Herzog but the leaders of Ra’am and Balad will warn President Rivlin that their list head is not speaking for all of the parties on the list. By law Rivlin will count The Joint List’s votes but will take Ra’am and Balad into account to determine “who has the best chance at forming a coalition” in the event no one gets 61 seats. Yesh Atid will nominate Herzog. Bayit Yehudi will nominate Netanyahu. I predict this is where Rivlin will call it a day for the first day of deliberations.
I expect President Rivlin to start Day 2 of Phase 2 with Kahlon. Kahlon can go either way, but my feeling is that because Trajtenberg and Lapid are above him on the Finance Ministry Portfolio list that Kahlon goes with Netanyahu who had already offered him that position. I could be wrong here but it just seems like Herzog will have a tough job giving Kahlon a competitive offer compared to Netanyahu. I expect both UTJ and Shas to nominate Netanyahu again in return for Haredi funding and the sorts. It is possible that one of the parties in UTJ will not be happy with the Phase 2 decision to nominate Netanyahu.
Liberman might nominate himself to get out of Rivlin’s pressure tactics. He is capable of doing this, but most likely it is an empty threat to milk a better deal out of Netanyahu. Yisrael Beitenu showed their right-wing colors at the right’s rally yesterday and Liberman’s top campaign promises include killing jailed terrorists. This is not exactly the type of thing that you see from a candidate that is angling for a Herzog government invitation. Liberman prefers a national-unity-government but will most likely go for Netanyahu when he sees it is unlikely to happen. Meretz will endorse Herzog and Yachad will endorse Netanyahu. I expect Rivlin to officially give Netanyahu the first crack at a new coalition next weekend.
Netanyahu is going to have problems forming coalition agreements with six additional parties and the people are going to question the legitimacy of a government where the largest party once again does not rule the country. That is our system. It is possible Netanyahu doesn’t reach Phase 3 and that Herzog gets a nod to be the second person to try Phase 2, although I doubt it. It is because of this scenario (and others), that I am going to hold off on my Phase 3 predictions until after the official election results. Of course if Herzog scores the Kahlon nominating some how, he will get the first crack at forming a government.
I want to thank Five Thirty Eight for their interview with me that was released today, to the Huffington Post for using my model as their basis, the many publications that have been linking and crediting my site including the Washington Post and Jerusalem Post. I have started to commit to media appearances tomorrow and others who are interested know how to get in touch.
To all of my loyal readers in Israel – Please exercise your democratic right and vote!
Great insight and analysis. Thanks Jeremy. See you soon, Elie.
From: Jeremy’s Knesset Insider To: eliedina1521@yahoo.com Sent: Monday, March 16, 2015 7:53 PM Subject: [New post] 2015 Knesset Jeremy Election Phase 2 Prediction Analysis #yiv4412338687 a:hover {color:red;}#yiv4412338687 a {text-decoration:none;color:#0088cc;}#yiv4412338687 a.yiv4412338687primaryactionlink:link, #yiv4412338687 a.yiv4412338687primaryactionlink:visited {background-color:#2585B2;color:#fff;}#yiv4412338687 a.yiv4412338687primaryactionlink:hover, #yiv4412338687 a.yiv4412338687primaryactionlink:active {background-color:#11729E;color:#fff;}#yiv4412338687 WordPress.com | Knesset Jeremy posted: “Phase 2 Prediction AnalysisYesterday I focused on Phase 1.Two days ago I posted the Knesset Jeremy Model Prediction for 2015.Zionist Union 25Likud 22The Joint (Arab) List 12Yesh Atid 12Bayit Yehudi 12Kulanu 9Shas 7UTJ 7Yisrael ” | |
It has been great following your site and I very much look forward to seeing how things turn out tomorrow. I do expect that Netanyahu is going to get first crack and form a government, but I know anything can happen. I am curious to see if Michael Oren gets a cabinet seat.
Fascinating analysis and much appreciated by political junkies in the US. Your assessment that Kahlon would be swayed to join Netanyahu in a coalition seems likely. But given Livni’s decision to forgoe a rotation could Herzog offer Kahlon the rotation as the best possible carrot?
Jeremy, why wouldn’t Herzog just dump Trajtenberg and offer Kahlon if that is really a deal breaker?
Brian_nyc , with all due respect to Jeremy, no way does Herzog not give the Finance Ministry to Kahlon, if ti means getting his support.
If Livni can give up her turn in the prime minister’s seat, then one would think that Trajtenberg can take a lesser or different role too.
Bottom line, none of them get to serve and have any opportunity to have any impact, if Herzog is not the one forming the government.
Everyone is going to have to (and I believe will) adjust, if they are to be successful.
I see many people are misunderstanding what I am saying about the Finance Minister. Let’s assume Herzog dumps his in-house guy which I expect. How does he give a senior portfolio to Kahlon over Lapid who has more seats? There is no room now that Livni was promised Foreign Minister. How do you dis Lapid for Kahlon unless Kulanu is bigger than Yesh Atid?
Jeremy did Herzog definitely offer Livni Foreign Minister? I mean, her seats in the ZU are less that Yesh Atid will be bringing in.
If he wanted to troll Shas and UTJ into the coalition, Herzog could threaten to give Lapid Bennett’s current portfolio.
He absolutely would. I think that it should be pretty clear that if it comes down to Kahlon then either side would do what it takes to close the deal. I suppose that Buji has been less public about his desire to have Kahlon on board because, frankly, he has other ways to get to 61 while Bibi has Kahlon only. And so there is great merit to waiting for the results first. Why promise the moon to Kahlon when a big win might allow you to get him for a lot cheaper? Bibi is all in only because it is all he has, and because he wants to poach Kulanu voters.
I agree…Netanyahu is desperate to increase his numbers vs. Zionist Union, but by lurching to the right and poaching voters from Bennett and Lieberman, he chases away centrist voters, at the expense of the “right” block at large. He is trying to win the battle (which he won’t anyways), without eben ggiving second thought towinning the greater “war.”
Also, the offer to Kahlon was made in public. There is only one reason you make an offer in public – because the other party leaders will not talk to you in private !
Since Herzog is not “talking,” kinda makes you wonder what private conversations he is already having, with other faction leaders.
Rumor is that was deal.
I can’t confirm it.
Wondering what else he could have offered her…
Herzog’s “other ways to 61” are all in your dreams. (i.e., Joint List, Haredim sitting with Yesh Atid, Likud agreeing to a rotation for a unity government, or splintering off a section of Likud). They both will need Kahlon, and he has self-described as a “man of the right.” If Bibi gives him the Finance post, he will take it, he’s just not committing to anything before the election because he wants to draw votes from all sides, and if he says now where he’ll go, he would lose votes from the side he goes against, whereas right now both sides will vote for him if they don’t know for sure.
I don’t think Herzog would have to offer much to Livni. As you point out, he already saved her political career. Minister of Justice maybe?
Jeremy, first of thank you so much for all of your hard work and this Blog.
Technically, I don’t believe anyone said Livni would be Foreign Minmister, not even Livni herself. Maybe that’s the expectation, however all that news reports said was that she would give up her turn at the rotation.
I think Lapid certainly could be Deputy Prime Minster and her Foreign Minster or vice versa, although she brings more experience to the Foreign Minster position.
Again, I go back to my earlier point, no one gets to serve, unless the left gets to form the coalition, no one wants to sit in the opposition, there is no power in that.
Herzog I think set the example, by agreeing to a rotation and Livni expanded on it, by foregoing it. They set the example and for a country tired of self serving politicians, I think it was absolutely brilliant !
I believe that the trend is in Herzog’s favor and that very high turnout (approaching 80%), will result in a very good night for Zionist Union.
Further, Netanyahu’s last minute abandonment of the two state solution and further lurch to the Right seals his fate and that of his party.
Later today will be very interesting.
Likud Internal Polls are showing only 20 seats, while Zionist Union Internal Polls are predicting 27 seats.
My Prediction:
Zionist Union 27
Likud 20
The Joint (Arab) List 15
Yesh Atid 15
Bayit Yehudi 9
Kulanu 11
Shas 7
UTJ 6
Yisrael Beitenu 5
Meretz 5
Yachad 0 (misses threshold)
The Left – ZU 27 + YA 15 + KU 9 + MZ 5 + YB 5 = 61 Knesset Seats + support from The Joint List with 15 Seats from the Outside…(very similar to Rabin in the early 90’s)
The Right – LK 20 + BY 9 + Shas 7 + UTJ 6 + YB 5 = 47 Knesset Seats, even with Kulanu they can only get to 58
Correction: KU at 11 not 9
As I’ve said from weeks ago – turnout, turnout, turnout. what turnout brings we’ll see tonight but both Rivlin and Kahlon, if Herzog leads, will push a national unity deal splitting Likud. March 17 always a good day for the Irish.
David
A prediction should not be the same as a wish list.
The maximum the left bloc is likely to get is 43. That will be a very good outcome.
The Netanyahu bloc has at least 37 seats And no way is the Netanyahu right only going to get 29 seats. Therefore if Likud + BY only get 29 there is no way that Yachad miss the threshold.
The only way Yachad misses the threshold is if Likud gets more then 23 seats or if BY gets 14. At worst Lijud + YB could have 35 and Yachad misses the threshold. But 29???
What I like about Jeremy’s site is that he is objective.
It is ok for us to have either a right or left bias. However it needs to be within reason.
Moshe, last election Yeah Atid was expected to only get 12 Seats but was susrging and managed to get 19 Seats. Momentum was with the Left Block.
It is not a wish list or a bias, but my best estimate or analysis. Beautiful things is numbers don’t lie and by tonight we will know, whether I am right or wrong. If I am wrong, I’ll be the first to admit that.
Thanks You for your reply.
Like your numbers but not sure how YB ends up with Herzog.
Liberman allowed the government to fall because he didn’t want to sit with the Haredim. His party is pretty anticlerical.
Here’s my guesstimate (close to David’s):
Zionist Union 27
Likud 20
Yesh Atid 15
Joint Arab List 14
Bayit Yehudi 11
Shas 6
UTJ 6
YB 5
Meretz 5
Yachad 0
And I forgot Kulanu at 11!
I’m probably being too optimistic for ZU and too pessimistic for Likud. Maybe 25-22 is more realistic. We’ll see.
Hmm you were off by 7 to 8 for Likud.
Just a bit! Lol.
I should have known better. In Canada I trust “best PM” numbers more than other polls. Should have done that for Israel too I guess.
Next time!
By the way, Jeremy, I suspect that Liberman has gone full bore with the saber-rattling sensationalism not because he is angling for a Netanyahu government, but because his party’s survival depends on his ability to hold enough right-wing voters to pass the threshold, and, sadly, cutting off heads has its own appeal to enough voters to make that a plausible strategy (although I have my doubts).
Jeremy – thanks again for all your work. On my Facebook post describing the election for my American friends, I said that putting together a governing coalition would be tricky in any case, but that I thought Bibi had the advantage because he would be herding cats, while Buji would be herding feral cats.
I think Herzog will offer Kahlon whatever he wants, and Lapid will go along with it. Because frankly Lapid has no other choice.
The big question will be whether or not Kahlon accepts.
I think the other big thing to watch will be whether or not anyone misses threshold. It’s an interesting dynamic when a good night for either of Labor or Likud could mean more seats for them but fewer seats for their bloc as a whole.
Thank you Jeremy for all the information you have provided. Saw you interviewed on Israel Now News’ “Ask the Source” segment this past weekend.
In response to Chris, Bibi only needs to get Kahlon to form a coalition. Herzog needs to convince Kahlon and Shas and either Lieberman or UTJ to form a coalition. He also will need Meretz and Lapid. Much harder road. Much. Lieberman won’t sit with Meretz. UTJ will not sit with Lapid.
Likud internals do not have them at 29. In fact, Likud, ZU and batit yehudus last internals show tight race between Likud and ZU. Bennett and the undecided right voters, which are most of the undecided, we’re breaking for Likud. Gill Hoffman reported on these last internal pills
Should say 20 not 29
I’d take deliberately leaked internals from any party with a grain of salt.
Im amazed how the left (and some posters here) were dizzy with dreams of a huge win and Likud implosion when there was plenty of information out there saying it was neck and neck.
Avi, Haaretz quoted a Lukid Source in saying they were at 20 Seats, while the Telgraph in the UK quoted quoted a source in Zionist Union saying, their internals showe them at 27 Seats.
Those were friom last week. Gill Hoffman is an Israeli political reporter says the last internal polls done by ZU, Likud and Bayit Yehudi all showed tightening race. This is why Herzog and Livni at the 11 th hour ditched the rotation agreement. Likud closed the gap by getting Bayit Yehudi voters and the undecideds were breaking for Likud
I guess we shall see soon…😏
No matter how you look at it, Bibi will be the winner again. ZU may well be strongest party, but if you count some 25 seats for ZU and another 5 for Meretz, you have about 30 seats for the Left in Israel. That is just one quarter. Realize it. The next PM will be the old one, just with another, more complicated coalition. But Israelis are used of that, so there is no major problem, except the international media who wants to transact a quote by German play writer Bert Brecht: “If you are not satisfied with the result of the lection, just change the voters (the people).
I am impressed by the professionalism of your analysis and writing, and especially how neutral your writing is, given that you are such a senior member of a certain party.
Behatzlacha! Best wishes for success!
תודה thanks, גדעון אריאל Gidon Ariel 054-5665037 gidon.ariel@gmail.com
Jeremy, if Likud fairs poorly, how likely is a quick palace coup followed by a new party head in an attempt to win Kahlon over and form a government anyway?
Of everyone here, I am perhaps the only one who frankly doesn’t care whom the next PM is, not after Bibi threw the people who made him PM in phase 2 under the bus in phase 3.
I am glad I get to vote, and you nuts abroad who think they know what’s good for us do not.
A few little notes.
A recent article had a reporter admitting Idiot (that’s what it used to be called), Israel’s largest newspaper, suppressed a pool that was favorable to Bibi.
I got a call this morning from what purported to be Rabbi Aurbach’s faction, suggesting that I not vote at all. They said they had nothing against any other party, but (to use the incorrect terminology of the media) it would be unprincipled to compromise with the attempts to force the Charedim “into society”.
My extremely unscientific poll, looking at the depth of the slips in the box at my tiny election district in Haifa, show a lot of votes for Bennet, Deri, Lapid, and I think Lieberman (lots of Russians) (and Bibi? I forget). Both Lapid and Bibi’s people had stands set up. They appear to be making up for their lack of internet ads with a strong ground game, but Lapid seems to have everything covered.
Israel is blessed to have the democratic system and the level of civic involvement it has. The best thing about your comment is that you profess not to care much about who becomes Prime Minister, and yet YOU’RE STILL VOTING.
Yasher koach. If only Americans took our responsibilities so seriously.
Jeremy, question for you? What happens if the first person tasked with forming a coalition government fails? Does the other logical choice then get an opportunity? I remember at one point during the last coalition negotiations it was suggested that if Bibi failed, the election would have to be repeated all over again. What determines this, whether someone else gets a chance first or whether a new election is called?
President gives it to a second candidate if first fails and if enough MKs sign a piece of paper we go to a third compromise candidate.
So if both Herzog and Netanyahu would fail to get a coalition together, then what? Rivlin will nominate a “compromise” candidate and what is “enough” MKs. Could that in theory mean all the religious parties supporting Bennett OR Likud and center parties supporting the leader of the biggest centrist party or…
Probably he tells Buji and Bibi to go get in a room and don’t come out until they have a unity government, no?
Or then maybe there will be another round of elections… (hopefully with some mergers in the right/religious bloc)
Typical Netanyahu:
Arab voters are going to the polls in droves. Left wing organizations are bringing them in buses,” Netanyahu said in a video statement posted on his Facebook page.
http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/israelis-vote-parliament-campaign-focused-economy-29686202
Sounds like LePen, Farage or Jobbik. Appeal to bigotry and prejudice. Like a good demagogue.
Are you saying the left is free and clear of a racist and bigoted past? You are either joking or a total newbie to Israeli history.
Herzog can give FA to Livni, Deputy Premier to Lapid, Finance to Kahlon, and then because he doesn’t have to give JAL anything at all he gets the rest of the ministries as currency to make friends.
I agree 100% with Jeremy that all of this turns on Kahlon. But I can’t see Kahlon as a lock to join up with Bibi. He JUST left Likud and he’s been spending the last two weeks throwing shade at Netanyahu. Netanyahu meanwhile is working his hardest to make Likud look as much like YB and BY as he possibly can, giving Kahlon even less reason to come back.
If the left and center want it bad enough, there is a way for them all to make Herzog Premier.
All that said, I ALSO agree with Jeremy that the results today are likely to do Rivlin’s job for him. The polls from Friday are long past stale, Bibi has the political body language of a man in the middle of a panic attack, and a two seat swing in either direction takes this from a close election to a blowout. So for right now, this is firmly a tossup.
The thing is, Kahlon is firmly with the right on everything except economic policy, and Bibi will put him fully in charge of that part of the next administration
No, Alex, Kahlon really isn’t that right wing at all. He is firmly in the Israeli center, and the farther to the right Bibi and the Likud drift the farther they move from Kahlon. And stealing his voice to trick voters doesn’t help, either. I am pretty sure that unless Likud does surprisingly well tonight, Kahlon will not support a Likud government.
You say “except on economic policy”. As though that’s a minor issue.
One of the major tropes that will come out of this election if Herzog winds up being PM is that the unquestioned primacy of defense and Israel’s relationship with the Palestinians will have ended. If this election is about defense, then Bibi will win. No question. But Bibi by all objective measures is tied right now, so there must be something else going on. Kahlon, like Lapid before him, is tapping into that something else.
Israel has, by many measures, the most unequal economy in the developed world. Something like 20 families control HALF of the market cap on TASE. Think about that – not the top 20 percent of families, TWENTY FAMILIES owning half of the value of the Israeli stock market. Housing is absurd, patronage is rampant, and Likud’s laissez-faireist approach to economics is a big reason why.
Kahlon’s pronouncements on economics and domestic policy are far from centrist – they’re overtly leftist, in many cases socialistic. Same-sex marriage, legalized marijuana, the breakup of monopolies, the regulation of housing markets and banks. To me, that doesn’t sound like a Likudnik. It sounds like a Labor Zionist.
These issues are Kahlon’s priority. He’s made as much abundantly clear. For Bibi to give his finance ministry over to Kahlon – with whom, it should be said, BIBI DISAGREES COMPLETELY on this stuff – says to Kahlon, Likud voters, and all of Israel that Bibi doesn’t actually care all that much about domestic policy.
This is why publicly offering Kahlon the finance ministry might have been a huge mistake. I will bet there are a significant number of Likudniks who vehemently disagree with Kahlon on these things. Those voters might all leech over to YB or BY. Which could leave Likud at 19 or 20 rather than 22 or 23.
So yeah, “except on economic policy.” But that’s half the freaking agenda.
Kahlon’s economic policy, particularly on housing, is decidedly free market. His housing solution is the one Bibi introduced in this Knesset that was opposed by Labor and Lapud, namely privatizing ownership of land. Please read up on Kahlon’s policies
Kahlon is pro-market, like most social progressives in the contemporary developed world. But he is emphatically NOT a laissez-faireist. He has advocated over and over again for government intervention in the operation of those markets – regulation – to ensure they work properly. That’s social progressivism. That’s modern leftism. It is NOT Likudism. Or at the very least it is not Likud’s record (apart of course from Kahlon himself, hence the him leaving and starting his own party).
Kahlon’s housing policy, his main issue, is the same one proposed by Neyantahu. His cell phone legislation and his claim to fame was de-regulating cell phones opening up increased competition.
But you’re making my point. Netanyahu’s housing plan is the housing plan of whoever has the most support on the housing issue. Which is to say, domestic policy is an afterthought to him politically.
How you want to label Kahlon is up to you – I would not be surprised to hear a lot of Kahlon supporters get uncomfortable with the idea of thinking of him as anything other than a centrist (centrists usually love being centrists). But Bibi is not a centrist. On foreign policy or domestic policy. But “centrism” – whatever that means – is demonstrating its political clout right now.
Bibi’s closing argument by all accounts is to tack Likud hard to the right right on defense and foreign affairs while altogether ceding domestic policy to a party that is not Likud. That’s … weird. And it may bite him, is my point.
The official elections website has been down all day.
http://bechirot.gov.il/
Not when Bibi is going to put Kahlon in charge of economic policy. The right fears a left wing government FAR more than they fear Kahlon’s economic policies. They will give him whatever he wants to prevent a Labor-led coalition. And outside of those issues, Kahlon has called himself a man of the right many times
Raviv Drucker says that Kahlon is making it known that he favors Buji. Take that for what it is worth.
Thanks Jeremy for all the great work this cycle. Your analysis makes a lot of sense. One question. You mentioned the possibility of Lieberman nominating himself in the phase 2. What about the possibility of Kahlon nominating himself in phase 2? That would practically ensure that nobody gets 61 in phase 2. It would open the door to Rivlin pushing for a national unity government and might maximize Kahlon’s leverage. He might prefer being finance minister in a ZU-Likud government than a narrow right or narrow center-left government. And it might even open the door to Kahlon as PM in a national unity government as a compromise candidate if Likud and ZU cant agree on a rotation.
In a national unity government middle parties will get less. Small parties can squeeze more. Remember top 2 parties fat from majority. Picking a winner in Phase 2 makes the most sense For Kahlon.
If the exit polls are right, ZU plus Likud plus Kahlon have 64. They don’t need anyone else. They could bring in others on their own terms.
Channel 1: Yachad 0 BY 9 ZU 25 LIKUD 22
Amazing.
Oof. Big blow to Bibi if Yachad gets 0.
Actually they have it 27/27 now. Wowza.
Its more amazing that Bibi got 27 to 28 mandates dont you think?
Way off. Oops.
Phase 1 Prediction Analysis
Likud…………………… 24………………. Bibi , pushed Left, stood Right
Zionless Union……… 21………………. Tznipi Hurtz Left: on the Center alter
The Joint…………….. 13……………….. Bused in on an Obama paid for bus arrived in a Stoned stupor
Yesh Atid……………. 11……………….. The Center Folds
Bayit Yehudi……….. 16……………….. The Un: Decided Right
Kahlua……………….. 13………………… The Un: Decided; centered from Left to Right
Shaft……………………. 7……………….. The ever hopeful true believers: Left: for the side of the Right!
UTJ…………………….. 7………………… Change?
Yisael Beitenu………. 4………………… The Russians Centered
Meretz…………………. 0………………… Centered on single issue; Left home
Yachad………………… 4………………… Came right out of the closet!
Haaretz projecting ZU 27 Likud 27. Yowza.
Why is everyone focusing on the two party vote, if Likud got here by canabilizing BY and Yachad fails to make it, I don’t know how Bibi stays on
Could be 2009 in reverse
If Kahlon goes with Bibi they will have a narrow right wing government
But I suspect we are either.headed for national unity or new elections.
Yeah, it looks like thats exactly what happened. I count 67 votes for Herzog assuming Kahlon can deal with the coalition depending on outside support from JAL.
Looks like 58 for center-left. Better than expected.
Everything I have read suggests that Kahlon wants Bibi gone. But he might have to rely on the Joint List to do that, and I don’t know if he is willing to go there.
Instead of seeing it from the Kahlon perspective, maybe consider that perhaps Bibi would love to stamp out Kahlon’s flame by agreeing to National Unity and being held hostage by the center.
Kahlon should go for PM as condition of abandoning bibi, at very least he could get in rotation with buji. If JAL abstains, and exit poll moves one leftward, this is possible.
Even with Kahlon, Buji doesnt have the mandates unless he cut a deal with the Joint List. But I believe that this would prevent Kahlon from sitting with him right?
I don’t see why JAL abstains. They’re the third biggest party in the country now. If they have any sense of politics – which I have to imagine they do – they’ll start using all that leverage. Not being in the government means they give that leverage up.
I say “in the government”. By all accounts they plan to support from outside. But their support would be necessary to keep the coalition together.
Unless they split. Which remains a possibility.
Lewis – They abstain because elements of their list wont sit with Zionist parties.
That assumes that they would be admitted.
Stranger things of happened but it seems like a far fetched proposal that Kahlon prefers to sit with the Joint List rather than Bibi (unless he has a huge personal issue with him). From all Ive read previously it seemed he preferred Buji but would also sit with Bibi. That doesnt sound like a huge vendetta to me.
I just found this site, and am wondering if Yahad had a vote sharing agreement with anyone. I couldnt find any info.
turnout, Kahlon and Rivlin as predicted… the choice is now between a national unity government and domestic turmoil and international isolation. Of course if ZU agreed to a rotation with Kahlon then that would interesting and could split Likud.
and BTW the Voice of Israel commentary is amateurish, ill informed and somewhere to the right of Attila the Hun. Like listening to a Bnai Akiva pep ralley in Teaneck NJ.
The Likud may have won the most mandates outright and youre still bring up “splitting” the Likud? It’s not happening pal.
Exit Polls average now posted as the final entry in the Knesset Jeremy Poll of Polls. Huge last minute changes for Likud, Bayit Yehudi and Yachad.
Over the whole campaign there was a steady trend line moving from the right to the left. From a high of 76 seats for the right to an exit poll low of 64.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1d49cWZJMC3-5ZcaNh6MeVVg-EMdEPdRuaMZS3cPygeI
Could be 62. Which would be one fewer than I predicted.
A Likud source told Haaretz that there will be a national unity government.
Which is the opposite of what they’ve been saying.
Feh. Likud, Labor, YA, YB could be it.
Bennet and Bibi have already begun building a coalition together. It’ll be unity, but likely with the Haredim and Bennet.
they can build all they want. Looks like they’ll have only 37 seats between. Why would Labor agree to be a part of that government. Unless, at least, Herzog gets to split the premiership.
Two big reasons actually. In a national unity coalition Buji would get to be FM or DM. Plus, his list would get some prime ministries. In the opposition hed get nothing. You think Laborites don’t appreciate all the perks that come with being government ?
Chris can you post a link to that Haaretz story with the Likud story?
Reuvi Rivlin: we need unity.
So it seems that we will get it. Frankly, that is what I was hoping for. I didn’t want a leftist government, but I really, really, really didn’t want a right wing government, either.
Didn’t you say you wanted Bibi gone more than anything? I don’t recall you ever saying national unity in previous posts.
Jeremy’s predictions were pretty good when you combine Likud and BY and discount for the Yahad tank. Bennett underestimated the Bibi sleeze factor.
I agree with your sentiment regarding Jeremy!
One thing that wasn’t underestimated was the power of the right to organize for action. Amazing ground game! Made up a huge difference in days.
You know one interesting underestimate was just how stiff Buji came off to voters. The guy seriously had an open net shot in front of him and totally shanked it. Can anyone believe his best bet today looks to be National Unity? Talk about falling short of expectations.
Within 10 minutes Likud has gone from trumpeting their great victory to asking for a unity government with their rivals.
This is not the press strategy of a party that has a clear path to a majority coalition.
Before we get all worked up about Bibi or Buji not sticking to what they said, lets not forget, its all “politics”.
That said, national unity (even though its a recipe for malaise), what a great way to cut out the kingmakers and fringe party extortion.
Likud, ZU, BY and Shas for example spites Lapid for being Lapid, Kahlon for abandoning the Likud, Leiberman for backstabbing, etc etc.
First Impressions of the early numbers:
Jury out on Yachad threshold. Hold your horses, commentators!
BTW: Scoreboard vindicates–
Many of us, on this site, stuck our heads out against a strong, noxious head-wind and called Likud dead-even with ZU.
BY and YA cannibalized by the Big Boys—we are all too high # for them, let’s all admit it.
(The Religious-Zionist Party continues to underperform in Israeli politics).
Unity Government is despised by right & left, may be unworkable at all.
Let’s keep open minds…
Channel 20 has Yahad getting in with 4 seats apparently.
YA looks like it’s close to what it was polling.
ZU and Likud both overperformed the polls.
Likud overperformed even more, but it did it by cannibalizing BY. It was almost one-for-one – Likud projected at 22, got 27 for a plus 5. BY polled at 12, finished at 8 for a minus 4.
YA, JAL, and Kulanu were all pretty much where the polls said they would be. (I don’t take get your point on YA – polls had them at 12, and it looks like they got 12.) Kulanu hit the high end of projections, but 10 was distinctly within the realm of possibility.
If anybody wants to take a crack at where those three extra ZU seats came from, I’m open to suggestions.
But overall the polls were pretty well dead on. In the final weekend Bibi tacked right and stole BY votes, and that’s where we landed.
Cannabilized Yachad even more.
Labor might have gotten a seat or two from YA.
I’d say increased turnout among secular voters – kol hakavod V15 on a great ground game. also when a party the sixe of Yahad misses by just a bit the formula favors the larger parties. But the double ballots can still favor the right. Jeremy, what’s the odds of Bennett retaining his leadership if BY is shut out of a government?
Has there ever been a time in past elections where the exit polls diverged from the final results? The exit polls suggest a virtual tie with no one seemingly able to form a narrow coalition. It appears clear that some unity coalition will be forced on Likud and ZU.
In 1995 Yosef Burg of the Religious party went on TV after the exit polls and proclaimed the return of a Labor-Religious party coalition… Within a few hours actual results went south for Peres.
So Aylet Sheked will be the new head of the BY?
I’m kidding, almost.
Speaking of kidding (almost) I wonder how many heads are gonna roll at Meretz HQ for their awful performance. They’re seriously close to getting the same number of votes as Yachad whose numbers I believe you called radical fringe. Maybe renowned statesman and power player Mossy Raz will get a crack at leading them up from the muck.
It’s ALL up to Kahlon…he can “make” either coalition…the bigger story for me is that the right coalition shrunk and the left – center coalition increased.
Bib only increased Likud’s numbers by cannibalizing Bennett and Yahad, while the Zionist Union increased its numbers by increasing overall turnout.
Bibi can spin this a win, and I guess not being completely trounced is better than nothing, but he is either going to be sharing power in a unity government, sitting in the opposition or have a very narrow right wing, unstable and internationally isolated government.
I just don’t see how that is a Win.
This.
Kahlon posted on Facebook tonight that he looks forward to pursuing a path of reconciliation to heal the divisions of Israeli society.
Sounds like a no-Bennet national unity government to me.
Depends what Bibi offers Buji. Already some Likud sources are saying Bibi will invite Buji to a “Bib” led national government. I do not see Buji joining under those circumstances. And if Kahlon is willing to sign up with the left center, all bets are off.
Heal the divisions by excluding Bennett? That doesn’t sound very healing Chris.
He did far better than the polls show. That’s not a win? Most people here were already writing his political epitaph. Now there’s a good chance he’ll be premier again. Big win.
Regarding my PRojection, that some here had panned…
Prediction Exit Poll +/-
————- ———- ———
Zionist Union 27 27
Likud 20 27 +7
The Joint (Arab) List 15 13 -2
Yesh Atid 15 11 -4
Bayit Yehudi 9 9
Kulanu 11 10 -1
Shas 7 7
UTJ 6 6
Yisrael Beitenu 5 5
Meretz 5 5
Yachad 0 0
8 out 11 of my projected seats were spot on, almost perfectly. In my analysis, Bibi cannibalized Bayit Yehudi and Yahad, while Buji clearly drew votes from Yesh Atid.
Left Center as a Block increased its numbers, while the Right Block decreased. Only because Netanyahu cannibalized smaller right parties, the last few days, is he even relevant.
We will see how it all plays out, but Bibi is much weaker today than he was a few months ago. Back then he controlled his destiny. Today, thanks to his foolish decision to go to elections, his future is in the hands of others.
David
Not bad but I got one thing right when I said the only scenario where Yachad does not reach the threshold was if Likud + BY got 35 seats.
Thanks Moshe and kudos to you on Yachad – I agree !
Wrong as usual.
channel 1 updated exit poll has likud 27 zu 26 and YACHAD 4
looks like whether ya had crosses or not will be up in the air
It’s very much down to the wire for Yachad!
Nearly all the votes in and they’re saying 30 for the Likud and 24 for ZU. If true this is beyond a surprise…it’s a thrashing.
Haaretz, Ynet and others are all saying 30 seats for Likud; 24 ZU… That is a thrashing.
So Netanyahu’s attack on peace and outright bigotry turned around the election. Congratulations, Israel, you have embarrassed Jews around the world. I no longer feel any connection to you, but don’t worry, the born-again Christians will support you, so they can convert all the Jews before Jesus comes back. It’s a sad sad day.
I love Israel and feel connected to it which is why I lament this result but I understand your pain
Credit to Bibi, one of the most remarkable political survivors of all time , for this astounding comeback. I said I wouldn’t believe he was beaten till I saw it with my own eyes…but no one expected this. victory assured, may he heed his better angels and lay to rest the ugly rhetoric of the final stretch which proved so disappointingly effective.
Sorry, what peace was he attacking ? You must be living on a different planet
Your will be really missed …. Not !
Israelis have stood up to ideological bigots like you and done themselves proud by looking after their own interests.
This is a great day.
All that anti -Semitic V15, Soros and eu money flushed down the toilet
confronted with a tightening race, bibi knew what to do. it was very ugly but it worked. zu was flummoxed. the scrapping of the rotation at the 11th hr was just weird and a signal of desperation and confusion. the news puzzled me when I saw it but I allowed wishful thinking to put it out of my mind. in retrospect we should have known then which way things were trending…and some here did. not even the most star eyed Likudnik optimist predicted 30 seats and a 6 seat margin….simply shocking
Nonsense
People knew what they were voting weeks ago
Luckily V15, the EU and Soros flushed their money down the toilet
Simply wonderful that all the lefties who want to destroy Israel were confounded
given netanyahu’s approach towards potential rivals in the past, I would be expecting a tough couple years if I were bennett…even though his appearance with Bibi without appealing for his own votes served as a permission slip and no doubt aided bibi…he should not expect much gratitude
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