Smith conducted a poll that was taken out for Reshet Bet Radio and released on March 13 2015.
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
25 [20] Zionist Union (Labor-Livni)
21 [18] Likud
13 [11] The Joint (Arab) List
11 [20] Yesh Atid
11 [11] Bayit Yehudi
09 [02] Kulanu (Kahlon+Kadima)
09 [10] Shas
06 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
06 [13] Yisrael Beitenu
05 [06] Meretz
04 [02] Yachad (Yishai+Chetboun+Marzel)
66 [63] Right-Religious-Kahlon (Parties that have not ruled out nominating Netanyahu in Phase 2)
54 [57] Center-Left-Arab (Parties that have ruled out nominating Netanyahu in Phase 2)
Jeremy's Knesset Insider 
So from where I sit, there are two open questions. One of them is a run-of-the-mill political question, and the other is a much harder question about the nature of Knesset coalition building.
The run-of-the-mill question: Kahlon looks like he’s pretty sick of Bibi; does that mean Kulanu is a lock to support Herzog? His public pronouncements on Likud these days are not exactly complementary.
The harder question: what does a Herzog government that relies on Joint List, non-Zionist MKs look like? Can Joint List even be counted on to vote for Herzog in Phase 2? Is Joint List willing to vote for Herzog just to get rid of Bibi and then walk away from minister posts (while demanding plum committee seats – see the report earlier this week that Herzog is willing to put Joint List MKs on FA and Defense)?
I’d especially be curious to hear thoughts on the latter.
Would the joint list necessarily want Bibi out, I could see a heighten the contradictions type argument that it is in their interest to have Bibi stay
With these numbers, the joint list could abstain and if the left gained 2 more seats they could form a government
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/mar/12/israel-elections-arab-coalition-leader-says-priority-is-to-oust-netanyahu-ayman-odeh
Well, the math says that without Joint List Herzog would need ELEVEN more seats to get to 61. Bearing in mind the Haredim/Lapid issue.
Public statements from the Arab left, the Zionist left, and the Zionist center have moved very pointedly in recent days towards an “it’s time to be rid of Bibi” line. Not included in that group? The Haredim.
Giora’s linked there one of the articles that makes the point about as clearly as it can be made: to be rid of Bibi, these groups need to do some politics and get a deal done that gets Herzog 61 votes in Phase 2. If Odeh is serious about getting rid of Bibi, he can make it happen pretty easily with a left/center coalition of JAL, ZU, YA, Meretz, and Kulanu.
I take seriously the premise that Kahlon doesn’t care much about who sits in the government so long as he’s finance minister. So I don’t know that he’d walk away solely because he’d technically be sitting in a coalition with Joint List. I think the bigger question is whether JAL would even bother to cast a vote in Phase 2. If they really want to be rid of Bibi, then, like I said, the easiest way for them to do that is to vote for Herzog.
Polls show the dislike of Netanyahu is pretty strong, and I imagine the prospect of a Netanyahu-Lieberman-Bennett-Marzel coalition is even more strongly disliked. I think only around ~28% were fine with the Joint List joining a Bibi coalition (which is still surprisingly high).
Economic issues were the top priority for Joint List supporters too, which would put them more on the centre-left bloc even without the whole question of nationalism (or anti-nationalism).
Kahlon’s decision will probably depend on the election results and negotiations after the election. If Likud manages a tie with ZU and the right wing bloc has 70 seats without him, he’ll definitely go right. If ZU’s 5 sets ahead and the anti-Bibi coalition has 60 mandates, he’ll definitely go left. Anything in between will depend on the gap between ZU and Likud, the size of the blocs, as well as what he gets offered by each side. I would not be shocked if, in round 2, he nominated Herzog, or refused to nominate anyone, in hopes of driving up the price of his support for a government, as Herzog has no government without him, so he could ask for more. Even if Herzog refused, he could then go back to Bibi with slightly smaller demands.
For your second question, remember that the JAL is actually 4 parties. It’s very unlikely that all 4 would be willing to support Herzog, but they could splinter post-election, if there’s no way of defeating Bibi without them. Assuming 13 JAL MKs, Hadash will have 5, Balad will have 3, the Islamic Movement will have 3 and UAL/Taal will have 2.
Now, Hadash would probably be willing to do what you’ve suggested, but the others will be harder sells. In particular, while UAL/Taal might be pragmatic enough to be talked into this for a high enough price, it’s hard to imagine anything Balad and the Islamic Movement could realistically be offered which would convince them to join up.
However, if this happened, then Lapid and Kahlon would have a very tough time joining the coalition, as all of these parties are considered very bad from the point of view of Israeli centrists, to say nothing of the supporters of Kahlon voting for him because he’s ‘a man of the national camp.’ I think that they could live with taking votes from the JAL, but I’m not convinced that their electorate would be willing to pay the price those votes would demand, while Likud screamed about their ‘treason’.
I think that Lapid and Deri learning to tolerate one another is more likely than Kahlon and the JAL managing to get along.
My thoughts exactly. Nicely said.
Why do you think Kahlon and the JAL would have suggest a hard time getting along? I’d think a lot of reforms Kahlon wants would be pretty beneficial to Joint List voters, for whom issues like housing and the economy are the top priority.
Kahlon is basically selling himself as ‘Likud-lite’ or, as he prefers to call it, ‘the old Likud which cared for the people.’ Many Likud-lite voters are the sort of people who don’t want Arab Israelis to have any say in issues involving the peace process or Israeli security. This is exactly the same reason why, in the 90s, they opposed Rabin’s arrangement with the Arab parties for support from the outside, and they’re also the sort of people who would agree with what Lapid said after the last election: “I’m not going to join a coalition with the Zoabis.”
So, Kahlon would have a very hard time selling working with the JAL to his voters (even harder than Lapid). If the arrangement is just that the JAL votes for his policies, or he gets votes for his policies in return for some anti-racism stuff and increased funding for Arab communities (or something like that), then he could probably sell it to his voters, but if the Zionist Union intends to try running a peace process in a government where the JAL is providing support from the outside, his voters would probably consider that a betrayal of ‘the national camp.’ Similarly, if terrorism increases in such a situation, he would be seen as part of a government which is weak on terror due to being ‘black-mailed by a bunch of Zoabis’ (or something like that, Likud might come up with better wording).
Basically, for someone whose base is the center-right, joining hands with the JAL would automatically lose him some support and runs the risk of having his whole party collapse if things go wrong (peace process disaster or serious terrorism). So, for him to sit in that coalition, I’m not even sure offering him everything he’s asking for would be enough.
Nathan – suppose they only got an agreement from Hadash and Tibi, would that make a difference you think?
Tibi’s really toxic for the Jewish public due to his history as an advisor to Yassar Arafat, so I would say including him would be a really tough sell. Hadash would be an easier sell to the Jewish public, as it runs as an Arab/Jewish party, but it would need to effectively muzzle members like its head of communications, who declared that ISIS learned everything it knows from Israel a few days ago.
I’m not saying it’s impossible. In Israeli politics, just about anything’s possible, but I think it’s really unlikely. Like I said, I think talking Deri, Gal On, Kahlon and Lapid into joining together is a better bet for Herzog than trying to fit Kahlon and Odeh together. Alternatively, with a few more seats, Lapid could be replaced by Shas and UTJ to add a few seats, if ZU can pick up a few more seats itself, as this might give them an extra 2-4 seats. UTJ’s leader said that he would sit with Meretz just a few days ago. His problem is with Lapid.
One possibility would be the Joint List getting Knesset speakership in exchange for outside support of the government. Alternatively, each constituent party could decide on its own. Balad and Raam, presumably, would abstain, but there both Hadash and Taal would, I would think, be likely to join in that case. Imagine, say, Speaker Khenin and Health Minister Tibi.
If the Joint List would even sign a vote-sharing agreement with Meretz(!), how in the world could they join an actual coalition?
JAL will still do cuckoo stuff like this from time to time. But again, if they want to be rid of Bibi, they have to vote Herzog.
I think their own supporters will make their displeasure abundantly and vocally clear if the Joint List allows Netanyahu to be re-elected by default.
So you are depending on enemies of the State so you can get the Left in.
The Joint List is not non-Zionist. At least part fo it isn’t even anti-Zionist. It’s anti-Israel.
I see a number of the posters here are so low as to want its support. Especially those who live abroad and feel free to play with our lives.
It affects my family, too, which is why I hope to avoid a right-wing government that antagonizes the world and alienates its Palestinian neighbors. But it isn’t just a matter of fear, it is also a matter of doing what is right and decent. I am not a leftist at all and I am not comfortable with a left-wing government, either. But the idea that isolationist flag-waving and saber-rattling helps Israel in the long run is a bit much.
Chris,
you know why their are lies spread about Israel in the World? Because the arabs with the help of israeli leftists give the lies to the world press.
Also I wonder why you think that a right-religious govt would isolate Israel (even more). I could just tell you the answer – it could happen because the israeli leftists would feed the (world) press with all the lies.
So actually I blame the Left for all of Israel’s problems. Also from the start the Left accepted the 2-state solution before world leaders and the consequence was that now the World demands exactly that!