Hello everybody,
In about 90 minutes the deadline for publishing polls that were conducted in this cycle will pass.
I will be offering my average, analysis and prediction poll tomorrow night.
I think it is important to take some time to look at the final model before writing and publishing the final analysis of the election.
Jeremy
[…] It defies belief how these anti-Bibi dreamers can have the anti-Zionist Arab parties joining with the “Zionist Camp.” It’s just not going to happen, folks. Here’s the coalition I see coming to Israel soon: and to show I’m not dreaming, I’ll use the Channel 2 poll, which has the ZU at its peak popularity. Likud (22), B Yehudi (11), Shas (7), UTJ (6), YB (5), Yachad (5) =56, all right-wing. Former Likudist Kahlon asks for and gets the Finance portfolio from Bibi (who already offered it to him at the start of the election, while the ZU has it already promised it to another): 56+Kulanu’s 8=64 seats=Game Over. A more stable, more right-leaning government with the “social warrior” Kahlon put in charge of finances, plus some small concessions by the Haredi (like bus services in certain non-Haredi neighborhoods allowed to run on Shabbat) in exchange for a long-sought cancellation of Lapid’s Haredi conscription laws! Ouch! Bibi thumbs his nose at Obama and YNet news for all their overt and biased meddling. The right have a PM in the wings with Kahlon once Bibi beats Ben Gurion’s longevity record. Best of all, leftist capitulationists Buji, Livni, Lapid, the nuts on the Far Left and the anti-Israeli Arab parties are left on the outside looking in for FOUR MORE YEARS! Sorry to burst your bubbles, leftists, but once again, you can have the largest party and STILL LOSE the election. Laugh now…because you’ll be crying later… (Comment by “Junk Science” at Jeremy’s Knesset Insider) […]
https://knessetjeremy.com/feed/
Jeremy's Knesset Insider 
Bottom line: does it look like Bibi will lose on Tuesday??
I think that’s a question to ask Kahlon rather than Jeremy. :3
Right. And the question is will Likud hold together after Tuesday? Might rump factions emerge to align with Kahlon from the center or BY from the right. A legal breakaway faction with funding will depending on results require 7 MK’s.
That’s a good point. Man that party seems to be in shambles.
Guys, let’s take it one step at a time. I cannot imagine seeing Likud “break up” into smaller parties. BUT I can imagine that if Likud will not run the next govt, then Netanyahu will leave politics and Likud will choose a new leader (Gideon Saar?)
That’s a good point. I think changing leaders could be relevant to forming a unity government, but Sa’ar would have a hard time reconciling himself to the centre. It might reconcile him to Kahlon though?
I think it’s pretty clear Bibi will lose on Election Day. Whether he truly loses will depend on whether Herzog can form a coalition. If he can get Kulanu on board, Bibi is toast.
I know you seem to fantasize about Bibi losing but according to the last poll even with Kulanu Herzog will only have 50 while without Kulanu Bibi will have 57. The only possible way Herzog will get 61 is if the two Haredi parties go with him or if the Arabs do. Kahlon wont sit with the Arabs and i high doubt both of the Haredi parties will go with Herzog over Netanyahu. A more likely scenario will be Kulanu going with Bibi because clearly has the edge.
Keep in mind that polls aren’t perfect. The poll of polls in 2013 gave Likud Beitenu 4 more mandates than it received, Labor and BY 3 more than they received, and Yesh Atid 7 fewer than they received. The bloc math showed 67 right-religious and 53 centre-left-Arab, but the results were 61 right-religious and 59 centre-left-Arab. And individual polls were far worse. (We can quibble over which parties should be where in the 2013 context
If the right-religious bloc gets 6 more mandates than the polls suggest, Bibi has it made. And if the centre-left-Arab bloc gets 6 more mandates than polls suggest, Bibi is pretty screwed.
And I don’t think we can excluded errors in either direction.
The religious parties are technically more conservative but they’ll go with whoever promises them a better deal and I suspect Shas could definitely go either way. A good showing by ZU (26) + YA (13) + Meretz (6) + Kulanu (9) + 1 religious party (7) may be enough. And yes, I fantasize about Bibi losing. Because he’s a disaster.
Herzog is a dud. BIBI will be a PM!!!
The only way I see him remaining PM is if Rivlin can convince everyone of the importance of a national unity government. I don’t think it is a bad idea but I doubt the ZU will be warm to the idea after winning by several seats.
You do not think that a unity govt is a bad idea????? Do you want Israel to commit suicide????
National suicide isn’t on the table this election g M. No matter what happens next week, Israel will still be around. 🙂
A national unity government is a terrible idea. It just means paralysis and no peace process.
CoC, while I agree with you in practice because I think no matter who wins, the security policy will be the same, I do not agree that we can assume that Israel can survive anything.
That’s what Nixon and Kissinger thought in 73, and the result was the Syria was almost ravaging the Galil. Eisenhower thought he could put some pressure on Chiang Kai-Chek and the result was the fall of Nationalist China and the murder of 70 million people by megalomaniac Mao Tse-Tung.
I actually think there’s a very good chance of a left-center coalition that leaves the nationalists, the Haredim, and Likud out of it altogether.
ZU, YA, JAL, Meretz, Kulanu. No poll has shown that coalition below 62 seats for like 2 weeks. It frequently polls in the 65-66 range.
The big question mark there is Joint List. Their stated policy is not to join a Zionist government. Fine. But – BUT – the Arab parties have never been in a position to play a real role in Phase 2 before. Ever. What was ostensibly a move to stay above the new threshold turned them into the third biggest party in the country. They’re in a position now where a “principled stand against Zionism” from them will make Bibi Netanyahu Prime Minister.
So I don’t think we have any good information on what they’re likely to do. All I can say is that it is in their interest to sit down with the rest of the left and the center and get a deal done that gets Herzog to 61. They’re anti-Zionist communists, sure. But they’re also politicians. And Herzog has said he would be willing to put Joint List MKs on the FA and Defense committees.
It boils down to this: how badly does Kahlon want to be finance minister, and how badly does everybody want to see the back of Bibi Netanyahu? Those are the big questions for Phase 2.
Kahlon said he will never stay with the non zionist parties the Arab parties, at the same time, the Arabs are not in Herzog pocket too
A lot of people say a lot of things before the results. But people change their tune when they’re a) faced with choosing the lesser of two evils and b) the chance to have influence within cabinet.
Thanks much for this profoundly important service. Nobody else was doing this in English.
Thanks for the solid work Jeremy
Thank you, thank you!!
If possible, in your analysis, please elabaorate on various routes to 61+ and possibility of National Unity Government.
I’m not sure how Zionist Union + allies gets to a majority but I’m also not sure that Netanyahu wants government far more “right” than prior coalition.
Again, thanks for all you are doing.
Thom >
Jeremy,
Thanks. See Caroline Glick’s column from today – which is accurate. Israel is facing a a Trojan Horse in the White House like it’s never seen. Only Bibi can withstand Obama. I love Bennett, but with Obama in office for the remaining two years, it is most important that Netanyahu is the PM. Israel will be making a colossal mistake if it goes left right now in the face of the unprecedented evil in the White House. I don’t think Herzog is smart enough to understand just how evil Obama is. I fear the results on Tuesday.
Funny you should mention Caroline Glick and evil in the same post.
Gloria Meir schill of the left strikes again!
It’ll be a colossal mistake if Netanyahu is returned to the premiership. He has been an unmitigated disaster for Israel and Jews around the world.
Good grief.
I wouldn’t take anything Caroline Glick says seriously. And even if you do, Iran is negotiating with Britain, France, Germany, Russia and China at the same time. So relax a bit.
Please don’t, guys. You must see that Caroline Glick has something serious to say, more smart stuff, ideas than Herzog, Lapid, Livni or Gal-on.
Not really g M. From a North American perspective it’s pretty obvious that Glick is just nuts. Obama’s deeply flawed but he’s not the devil. Relax. Even if you don’t trust Obama there’s still Cameron, Hollande and Merkel.
Obama is deeply flawed?? I would say that he is the worst president in history – trying to destroy the basis for US by all the time ignoring the Constitution and setting a dangerous example for the future for how to act as president.
When some of you active commentators talk about how terrible Netanyahu is because he has given up enough to Abbas in order for a peace agreement to be reached, it is making me sick!
You guys want the 2-state solution to be put in place now? Yeh, maybe you also want to split Jerusalem. But have you thought about the consequences for the people living in the areas you guys wish would be vacated. In what position are you to sit in Tel Aviv or New York or Miami or …. anywhere else and manipulate yourselves to believe that you know anything about the effects of the actions you are proposing?
To answer you before you question me, I quote one of my earlier comments to another commentator here, Miguel, who like some of you is also a leftist (according to all his ideas and opinions). And before you respond, think about what I have written:
“Miguel, so you think it is acceptable for people, not impacted by a decision to evict israelis from their homes, (= Tzipi Livni, …) to sit in secrecy in a closed room an decide that this group of people will have all their lifework destroyed, you think that it is OK to harm the children by literally (and violently) throwing them out of their homes (the only homes they might have ever known) and giving them lifelong traumas. And you really think that politicians are right to do this and spit in the face of this young generation and say that “who cares if you are traumatized or not – you are just pawns in my political game”.
You know, if Merkel, Obama or Holland or any world leader, who says that all these settlers in “illegal” communities have to leave their homes and must see their lifework being destroyed right in front of them, would (somehow) happen to visit these communities, I bet they would not dare to themselves say all this to the members of these communities. A visiting world leader simply could not say this in front of these settlers, as then they would see how the settlers would suffer, they would see the children crying, when their parents tell them their whole life will be destroyed in a second.
So to sum up: If the politicians, that want to destroy the settlements, the lifework of families and the only life the children have known, are brought to see the places and speak with the families, then afterwards I do not think that any person could take the decision to destroy all this and still feel good about themselves and still think that they are good persons. All this applies to Lapid, Livni, Herzog and so on, but especially leaders like Merkel, Obama, Holland and others. (These guys sit somewhere far away from the places and situations they talk about, they think they understand what their proposed actions mean and include – but they do not understand a thing. They would realize what they are suggesting if they visited the places and talked to the people on the ground.)”.
Who forced you to become a settler? You knew or should have known the day would come when you’d have to leave. It isn’t like we’ve never had a land for peace deal before.
CRL, I can inform you and all other leftists present that my opinion is not based on me being a settler – because I am a european, living in Scandinavia.
So you will next wonder why I care about the israeli Right. I can inform you that not only do I support Bennett for PM and follow israeli politics (also domestic) very in detail, but I also follow american politics (domestic and foreign) in detail and I can tell you that regarding the next presidential election in the US I would like that Ted Cruz, Scott Walker or any other Tea Partier would get elected president.
So you see, I see things as an REAL outsider.
Thank you, gM.
And by the way, by a “North American” perspective, I assume you mean a Leftist perspective. Because Obama’s numbers are not good. His country does not like him.
Really appreciate all of your work in this election (and previous ones, as well). You’ve been an incredible resource throughout the cycle, and I’ve enjoyed reading your unbiased and realistic analyses.
Strongly endorsing Lewis and many others in thanking you for providing and clarifying the thicket of Israel politics. I may have missed it : Do we know the % of Likely Voters who are still Undecided ? how do they lean ? is there a graph for this week?
Thanks again !
I do not know if Netanyahu will lose. However one thing is for sure Israel will be a less stable place after these elections.
Which is the single strongest argument for a national unity government. Bibi knows he can’t govern from the right, especially the religious right, and voters don’t want that, but a left-wing government would be hard to sustain, too.
I don’t think Bibi is willing to cede the PM’s chair to Livni and Herzog though.
If Netanyahu has a hard time to govern with a right-religious government, that is fine. Maybe that will keep him in check – like the checks and balances, guaranteed by the american Constitution.
Thank you for all your work. Amazing job.
you have a GREAT service.
Assuming the polls are accurate, isn’t by far the most likely result a narrow right wing govt with bb as pm? One that’s pretty unstable and leads to early elections? Very hard to see Herzog getting to 61 without either (a) the joint list joining or (b) the Haredim agreeing to sit in a left center coalition alongside Lapid. I suppose it’s possible but seems very unlikely. A national unity government is also possible but seems very unlikely. Neither Likud nor ZU is going to serve as a fig leaf for an otherwise right or left govt. I suppose a Likud-ZU-kulanu core with either YA or the Haredim is possible but it might founder on who gets to be PM, it’s hard to ZU and Likud finding terms they can agree on, and the Likud rank and file might revolt at something so centrist. So that leaves a Likud-BY-kulanu-Haredi-YB-yachad govt at around 64 seats. It’ll be hard to balance all the competing demands but that seems by far the most plausible. The problem, of course, is BB likely needs all of them (or at most can live without either YB or yahad). It sets bb up for blackmail as any one can bring down the govt. And it makes early elections a strong possibility. What am I missing?
Dan Meridor and Mordechai Tzipori – two prominent former Israeli politicians from the Likud – said they will not vote for their party and Prime Minister Netanyahu in the upcoming election.
http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4636671,00.html
The knives are coming out. Awesome.
Those two have never been REAL likudniks. They have betrayed the Likud by abandoning the fight for Eretz Israel (not that they never participated in it for real!).
An example of another one like them, but even worse: Tzipi Livni.
This site is the moral equivalent of crack or heroin. I will now start withdrawal symptoms.
Finall channel 10 poll:
ZU 24
Likud 20
JAL 13
BY 12
YA 12
Kulanu 10
Shas 7
UTJ 7
YB 5
Meretz 5
Yachad 5
Here is how I look at it
Clear Anti-Bibi ZU+YA+Meretz = 41
Clear Pro- Bibi = Likud + BY+ Shas + UTJ + Yachad = 51
Joint list = 13
Kulanu = 10
If Kulanu joins the first group and JAL abstains they would have 51 of 107, 3 away from making that coalition work, so those four parties need to slightly overperform these numbers or have Yachad or YB get thresholded for a center-left coalition to be possible
I look at it similarly, but I think it’s also worth considering the possibility that part but not all of the Joint List joins a coalition. Hadash and Tibi seem easier to include in a coalition than Zoabi.
The joint list doesn’t have to be part of a center left government in order to block Likud. It can support the government from outside the coalition like the Arab parties did during the Rabin administration. If you add their 13 to the 41, that gets it to 54. Kahlon becomes the kingmaker because he puts either side over the top. At that point Deri may well bring Shas into the coalition, nothwithstanding the presence of Lapid. That could bring a Herzog led coalition up to as many as 71 seats (41+13+10+7). As a Meretz supporter I sure hope Kohlon has had more than enough of the NutsandYahoos Administration.
As an aside, wouldn’t it be ironic if Lieberman falls under the new threshold that he was instrumental in creating.
One thing. A candidate for PM need the support of 61 MK´s, no simply more voters for than against.
For example:
ZU/YA/Kulanu/Meretz=54 MK´s.
Likud/BY/Shas/UTJ/IB/Yachad=51 MK´s.
Joint List: 13 MK´s.
If in the phase 3, when the Knesset vote for choose o not Herzog as PM, 54 MK´s vote Yes (ZU/YA/Kulanu/Meretz), 51 MK´s vote No (Likud/BY/Shas/UTJ/IB/Yachad) , and 13 MK´s abstain (Joint List), Herzog would not be PM. He would need that at least 7 MK´s (Hadash and Taal would have 7 MK´s) of Joint List vote Yes (even if they are not part of the government and support it from outside).
¿Is correct Jeremy?
In any case it´s possible that if the anti-Bibi parties get more or less the same MK’s that pro-Bibi parties and Herzog defeat Bibi clearly in the fight for first place (ZU 25, Likud 19 for example), I think Herzog will have the first chance to form a government, and will be PM, as even Shas could not join with the loser Bibi.
Why is it assumed that a national unity government will have the Haredim? That may be a good idea (minus Yahad), but why wouldn’t both Likud and ZU prefer Lapid and Kahlon in a unity scenario? You’d have almost 70 seats and a pretty broad crosssection of the middle of the electorate.
Netanyahu unhinged and desperate. Scraping the bottom of the barrel:
Netanyahu says “Scandinavia” is trying to topple him.
Netanyahu’s latest Facebook rant against international conspiracy lead by Yedioth publisher Noni Mozes sounds, frankly, unhinged. Totally
Netanyahu on Facebook: “Left wing and media elements here and abroad have banded together to bring Tzipi and Bouji to power illegitimately”
maybe he can rile up the nationalists into assassinating buji. worked twenty years ago!
You are very, very sick. You don’t live here.
The use of the term “illegitimate” by Adelson’s puppy Bibi is true chutzpah and will rile up Rivlin who appropriately defends Israeli democracy against all comers.
Thank you for invalidating every single opinion you have had until now. I was really starting to take you seriously.
I think he’s losing it….because if he’s no longer inevitable, there’s a chance that his loyal opposition in Likud will join a national unity gov’t without him. Or even try to topple him and put Kahlon in charge, especially if ZC has five or more seats than Likud. He’s in a “win or politically fail” situation.
Plus the primary beneficiary of the end of Netanyahu’s political career would be Bennett and Habayit Hayehudi. Not that this is a bad thing… because without Bibi, you can have a much more honest, less personality driven choice between the left, center, and right.
Well, Netanyahu’s facing the Zionists, so it’s only natural that there would be an international conspiracy against him. No doubt Noni Mozes has joined hands with the interest rate lobby and the banksters as well. ; )
I’m not aware there are any Zionists in the ZU.
shabbat shalom from nyc. bibi’s days are numbered. this is good for Israel, and it’s security. bennet looks to be a loser as well. Jeremy I have been checking your site multiple times daily for weeks. your hard work is a mitzvah. viva israel…viva buji!
I never commented on security issues in Israel when I live in the US. You have a hell of a lot of nerve preaching to people whose lives are on the line.
friends and family live in israel. I care about the security and continued health of the Jewish state. I regret my comment referencing the Rabin assasination. that was a low blow, and wildly unfair to pm Netanyahu, who I think has made grave errors but also think is a patriot who tries his best to protect Israeli lives.
I think if Herzog is PM hamas may well lose power in Gaza . &f Netanyahu stays on, they will certainly stay on. bibi and hamas have a codependent political relationship. witness times of Israel report the bibi back channeled ha as leadership during protective edge to assure them their grip on power would not be threatened.
BibI is an articulate and skilled spokesman f or israel internationally…or at least was. Now there is a real danger of splintering American support.
A family friend risked his life in Gaza last sumeme to protect his people. but other than military sound and fury bibi has not taken the diplomatic steps that would weaken hamas popularity, such as empowering moderate elements of the Palestinian leadership and let them show their people that working with, not agaimst, Israeli is the way to improve their
lives. All of the Palestinian extremists are openly rooting for bibi to hold on. the people that want israel wiped off the map want bibi in office. it is a moderate like Herzog they fear.
I like Biibi. we went to the same suburban Philly high school. but it is time for him to go
I don’t think Americans should be telling people whose lives (and tax money!) are being risked. It also helps to know some history; I was born when Israel seemed to be an eternal one-party State. I recall arguing (but refuising to state an opinion) with Israeli Leftists when I lived in the US during the run -up to the Olso disaster, and their argument (“we can always undo it”) than seems silly now.
At least I hope you do not believe in pressuring Israel to do “what is good for it”. That is over the line. (Although Danny Kurtzer was my college dean and helped my survive by freshman year, and I do believe he means well.)
I appreciate your apology and wish you well. Please recall that there are two parts to American electorate. Obama is not exactly popular; see the neutral realclearpolitics poll-aggregation site. Right now many Christians are better friends of Israel than much of the Jewish community. And frankly, in many ways their religion is closer to traditional Judaism than this “tikun olam” nonsense.
I know who my brothers are, but I also don’t think that the basis of Jewish unity should be a form of racism.
As a right-winger, I have been worrying about this election non-stop over the past weeks. But something just occurred to me that caused me to feel a sigh of relief: Bibi probably already has Deri (and UTJ) in his pocket. In combing through Deri’s statements, it seems pretty clear to me that Bibi has already offered him the moon and the stars and he has already accepted. With Lapid almost certainly in any Herzog government, and Meretz and Labor being in there too, it would be impossible for Herzog to offer Deri what Bibi can.
Without Shas there is no chance at a Herzog coalition even if Lieberman sits with Meretz. Even if Kulanu goes left (which seems likely his desire). Without Shas (and UTJ), the numbers don’t add up. Might Bibi have already taken care of this?? Everyone knows what Shas is, but is it possible that Bibi has already checkmated the left barring the left gaining even more than its best polls?
And no way Kulanu, Lieberman, or probably even Lapid would join a government with the Arab list. It’s all about Shas and I think Bibi has already taken care of this
Why does the right assume that they are the only ones capable of flanking political maneuver? Has it dawned on anyone that as we speculate in cyber space Kahlon is not recruiting possible detectors within Likud MP’s? If Bibi was able to split Labor with Barak cannot Herzog having the President’s nod seal a deal with Kahlon then follow with an offer to any Likudniks who can buy into a social agenda and a tough (Rabin/Alonist) negotiating posture with the Palestinians.
And you are granting the polls an accuracy they don’t deserve. The Arabs and YA could easily get 15 mandates and Likud will probably finish under 20. That doesn’t equate to a leftist landslide, but it makes a rightist government pretty implausible.
I suppose that a center-left coalition is tough, too, so who knows.
By the way, the nomenclature of politics this year is bizarre. Here would be the composition of a “right-wing” government:
Kulanu: pro- gay “marriage” and pro-marijuana
Likud: marginally right-wing on all issues, but with a tendency to economic populism and social liberalism at times
Haredim: UTJ is totally neutral on security issues and is basically non-Zionist, Shas and UTJ and strong proponents of the social welfare system. Deri is certainly not your run of the mill right winger.
YB: ferociously secular
BY: truly right wing
…and why is Haetzni calling for a split in Likud in today’s Yidiot? As for Deri, he can’t be the first Mizrahi based party to break for Herzog but he would love to be the second.
Likud is in disarray. They are bracing for a rough night. The party has cannibalized its bench and is an old and intellectually moribund thing now. Gideon Saar is a star, but you can’t keep chasing away the Saars and Kahlons and expect to remain strong. Bibi will get a lot of criticism for blowing this campaign, but it has been Bibi who has kept Likud competitive over the years.
I think you’re correct there re: the religious parties, but that still leaves Bibi ~4-5 seats short of government, and with Marzel holding a gun to his head no less.
Don’t worry too much about Herzog forming government, either of the left or the centre. Israel will be stronger and safer for it, and it will allow Likud to return to more centre-right roots.
I agree.
Says the man who doesn’t have to live with the results….
Channel 2 Poll:
ZU: 26
Likud: 22
JAL:13
Yesh Atid: 12
BY: 11
Kulanu: 8
Shas: 7
UTJ: 6
YB: 5
Meretz: 5
Yahad: 5
🙂
Even with this poor poll for the Likud (and the others) the simple fact is that ZU doesn’t have a coalition unless a) the UL sits with them b) they can convince the religious to sit with Yesh Atid or c) they invite the Liked into a national unity government.
Does anyone think these 3 scenarios are likely?
Yes, I do. The Haredim will go wherever they are offered a government that will help them achieve their political goals.
from times of Israel
a hard liner from plo says “I hung Netanyahu’s portrait onmy wall next to Arafat years ago”…Hamas views a BibI defeat as a nightmare scenario.
support Hamas…vote Likud!
http://www.timesofisrael.com/hamas-and-fatah-have-clear-opposite-interests-in-israels-election-outcome/
says bibi got message to Hamas during protective edge that there was no intention of toppling Hamas govt
just as bibi is good for Hamas, Hamas is good for bibi.
ruin Khalid Meshal’s day…vote Buji
It defies belief how these anti-Bibi dreamers can have the anti-Zionist Arab parties joining with the “Zionist Camp.” It’s just not going to happen, folks.
Here’s the coalition I see coming to Israel soon: and to show I’m not dreaming, I’ll use the Channel 2 poll, which has the ZU at its peak popularity.
Likud (22), B Yehudi (11), Shas (7), UTJ (6), YB (5), Yachad (5) =56, all right-wing. Former Likudist Kahlon asks for and gets the Finance portfolio from Bibi (who already offered it to him at the start of the election, while the ZU has it already promised it to another): 56+Kulanu’s 8=64 seats=Game Over. A more stable, more right-leaning government with the “social warrior” Kahlon put in charge of finances, plus some small concessions by the Haredi (like bus services in certain non-Haredi neighborhoods allowed to run on Shabbat) in exchange for a long-sought cancellation of Lapid’s Haredi conscription laws! Ouch!
Bibi thumbs his nose at Obama and YNet news for all their overt and biased meddling. The right have a PM in the wings with Kahlon once Bibi beats Ben Gurion’s longevity record. Best of all, leftist capitulationists Buji, Livni, Lapid, the nuts on the Far Left and the anti-Israeli Arab parties are left on the outside looking in for FOUR MORE YEARS!
Sorry to burst your bubbles, leftists, but once again, you can have the largest party and STILL LOSE the election. Laugh now…because you’ll be crying later…
You’re a lot more confident than Bibi and his friends seem to be. If the poll trends are accurate, Kahlon might well look to his left. If you think that Herzog wouldn’t be willing to give Finance to Kahlon, regardless of what’s been said before, you’re living in a fool’s paradise. With a little bit of luck, we may well be saying bye-bye to all you NutsandYahoos.
Yes, we have narrowed it down to Kahlon’s 8. But here’s the scenario from the left: with a bit of Riviln as shadchan Herzog wraps up a sweet deal for Kahlon with the understanding that Herzog would approach Likud next. Likud says no but 40% of MKs favor a deal. In the meantime Herzog has serious discussions with Shas which makes Likud or half of the party reconsider. Lapid, scared of being left in the cold compromises by dropping penalty in Haredi draft.
ZU 26
Kulanu 9
Likud rump-12/21
YA 12
————–
Shas
UTJ and Meretz invited as afterthought
Your basis for assuming 40% of the Likud splits off is… Fanciful thinking? Maybe 50% of the UL will declare themselves to be Zionists and thus perfect coalition partners!
I guess conjuring up make believe allies is the only way you can make it work in your head since no matter how you slice it Herzog doesn’t have 61 mandates.
And knowing this why would any Likudnik opt to a) harm his party and b) hand Herzog a government on a silver platter? Just hold out a few weeks and watch the ZU fail to make a coalition.
And the coalition agreement reaches a strong consensus on economic and social issues, a tough posture on Iran and allows for serious negotiations within the entire region on Palestinian issue with understanding that any final or long term interim deal with significant adjustments in territory or population would be subject to a plebiscite.
Yes, that keeps Meretz and the anti-Zionist parties out of it, but they will not succeed in splintering Likud as Bibi did with Barak’s Labor, for one very simple reason. There is no equivalent of Kadima this time around. In ’09, Labor was on the verge of literally being replaced by Kadima as the cornerstone of Israel’s center-left, so that fact lent itself to doing anything possible to preserve the party’s relevance. Likud, while a bit plagued by infighting, is in nowhere near such a desperate position. Furthermore, in that case, a center-left coalition had already been attempted to be formed (under Livni) and failed. And there was clearly no path to such a coalition at the time, so having that impact within a coalition was the best Labor could hope for. That’s why the split was possible then. In this hypothetical, Likud will understand that if they hold out and prevent a left-led government from being formed, there WILL be a fairly clear path for them to stay in power. So in short, this ain’t gonna happen
If there is a non-right coalition, and the List is not a part of it, I believe it will be ZU, YA, Kulanu, Meretz, Shas and UTJ. Poltitics makes strange bedfellows is not just a saying. The latter two parties get more of the funding they want, coming from the funding that has been going to the illegal settlements, and influence in government they haven’t had in years. They and YA each bend a little on the national service question. Lapid becomes foreign minister.
I’m not aware that any illegal settlements get funding. It all goes to legal settlements.
Sure that could happen. But only if Netanyahu is given the chance to form government. If Herzog is given the first crack, and gets it done, your calculations won’t matter.
Your basis for saying the religious parties will sit with Yesh Atid is what? Cliches like politics makes strange bedfellows? Cliches can’t override the animosity between Lapid and Shas/UTJ. Seems like what you have is wishful thinking like most of the leftists on Jeremy’s site because Herzog simply doesn’t have the numbers even in the best polls.
Those suggesting a center-left coalition with the Orthodox parties are forgetting another element of this. Even if the Haredim and YA each bent enough to get around their animosity (which they won’t–ending the draft exemption was one of the founding principles of YA), there is still the element of dividing Jerusalem. The whole reason Livni was unable to form a coalition in 2008 was because Shas insisted on a commitment to never divide Jerusalem. As “moderate” for a religious party as Shas may be on other matters, dividing Jerusalem would be a red line for them, and Herzog would not agree to such a guarantee.
He might agree to it, if they insist. Then, if an agreement is arrived at whereby Arab Eat Jerusalem is given to the new state, and Shas bolts, he can either call new elections or rely on the List to defeat a no-confidence motion. The way Rabin did.
or nullify the redrawing of municipal boundaries so Arab neighborhoods and villages are no longer ( as if they ever were) a part of the city. Yerushalayim hashleimah v’haketanah.
Herzog said a few days ago that he supports a unified Jerusalem. The Haredim are in political turmoil and they’ll join Buji even with Lapid if ZU beats Likud by several seats. They may join Buji even if the margin is only a few seats.
That is literally the only scenario that Bibi has available to him. It isn’t even a very good one for Bibi, anyway, because it would jam him into a coalition quite a bit to his right. How could he even govern?
“Supporting” a unified Jerusalem and making a guarantee never to divide it are two very different things. And there’s the element of Livni too–who would have to agree to this commitment as well, which she pointedly refused to do even though she literally would have had a government if she had.
Yes, one can agree to an undivided Jerusalem. But that doesn’t define what constitutes Jerusalem.
Likud won’t get 20 seats. Watch.
They don’t have 20 now. The important numbers are the right/left split, and the closest that has gotten in ANY poll is 64-56 for the right, and those are the ones that have Labor beating Likud by 5 seats. Even here, Herzog has NO viable path to a coalition.
And right now Israel NEEDS a coalition to the right of Bibi, at least until Obama is out of office in the U.S.
The old line about no one likes to watch sausage being made but everyone eats them holds true here. The mandates don’t seem to be there for a narrow left government and the politics domestically and interbationally would not tolerate a narrow right government. A national unity government is the default option and as the other old saw goes, the right compromise is where everbody goes away unhappy.
Chris, aside from the Likud underperforming what do you think the results and coalition will ultimately be?
David,
Likud: 18-19
ZU: 27-28
JL: 15-16
YA: 15
BY: 13
Kulanu: 9
Shas: 7
UTJ: 5-6
YB: 4
Meretz: 4
Yachad: 4
I wouldn’t be surprised to see one, all, or none of Lieberman, Yishai, and Gal’On miss the threshold.
My guess is that the coalition will look like this:
ZU (27) + YA (15) + Kahlon (9) + Likud (18) or ZU (27) + Shas/UTJ (12-13) + Meretz (4) + Kahlon (9) + YA (15)
With a gap that large only Herzog can put a coalition together, but he’ll need to make it as broad as possible to govern. Bibi wouldn’t have enough seats for a majority and so he would be forced to accept a rich offer from Buji. He is going to be replaced one way or the other as head of Likud, and so he’ll have a lot more power as, say, finance minister than as deposed head of a crumbling party. I could also see Bibi totally going rogue and forcing Isaac to form a coalition with Lapid and the Haredim. But the Haredim will have nowhere to go and their parties are in crisis, too, so they’ll jump at the opportunity to join a coalition much quicker than people think.
If the results are as the polls siggest, you’ll probably wind up with some kind of unity government. But I think a right-wing government is about as likely as an Arab-leftist coalifion, which isn’t likely at all.
If you are curious what I want to happen, I hope for a center-left government with the Haredim. I wouldn’t mind national unity, either, even with Bibi as PM. What I am terrified of is the right-wing scenario, but I do not think that will happen.
No sir. You’ll be crying later when Israel has completely isolated its friends. It’s you on the right who are doing irreperable harm to Israel.
Not a chance in hell the Haredim sit with Yesh Atid. Even smaller chance of the Arab parties joining anything. Herzog’s only hope is to splinter Likud, but without a Kadima factor in there, Likud has no motivation to agree to that because they can hold out, force a redo of the election and be restored to power. Bibi knows full well that Kahlon is the key, he knows he needs to stay in office for security reasons, and when all’s said and done, Kahlon is with Bibi on those issues. The day after the election, whatever the results, Kahlon will still be the kingmaker, and Netanyahu will assure him that he will make whatever economic concessions he has to make to him on that matter, along with the Finance portfolio, which will secure his place in the government. Kahlon also knows that any attempt by Herzog to form a government will fail and lead to the election having to be redone, and he knows that any number of disasters could happen in the meantime. As long as Bibi placates Kahlon, he will remain PM
Did you see Deri tonight on Channel 2, Alex? He didn’t rule out sitting with Herzog, said he liked him, and said that he would do it only if Lapid retracted his support of criminal sanctions in the draft law. Lapid is already backtracking on the issue. Herzog seems pretty close to UTJ’a Litzman, too. The writing is on the wall–Deri has to pledge to reccomend Bibi because he can’t afford to bleed support to Yishai and Litzman is waiting for an offer the Council of Torah Sages can’t refuse.
No one “rules out” anything really. But first, Shas alone wouldn’t even be enough with the numbers as they are. He would need another Orthodox party too. Plus the issue of dividing Jerusalem as mentioned above. It’s about Kahlon, Bibi knows it and he’ll give him the moon on economy matters, and on everything else Kahlon is a man of the right.
Also as to Deri, he’s not just looking at support in this election. He’d lose so much support in future elections if he sat in a Herzog-led government. Did you see the numbers? Shas voter prefer Bibi by a 40 point margin. He can’t ignore that.
These people are not our friends. These people are trying to get us killed.
Two likely possibilities.
1. Bibi goes for a unity government. Everyone is forgetting the big-party lobby. He pulls in YA and YB. We have a clear anti-religious government. Maybe Meretz joins.
2. The usual situation. Herzog or Bibi create a majority with the Chreidi parties. they then stab said parties in the back or the Supreme Court does it for them; if they leave, they still have a majority government.
Meant – minority government.
Kulanu BYahad need to vote for the the Joint List of the Zionist Camp and need to be Likud when learning Shas with Meretz and United Torah because Yesh Atid with Yisrael Beitenu in the Bayit Hayehudi