Teleseker conducted a poll that was taken out for Walla and released on March 13 2015.
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
25 [20] Zionist Union (Labor-Livni)
23 [18] Likud
12 [20] Yesh Atid
12 [11] The Joint (Arab) List
11 [11] Bayit Yehudi
09 [02] Kulanu (Kahlon+Kadima)
07 [10] Shas
07 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
06 [13] Yisrael Beitenu
04 [06] Meretz
04 [02] Yachad (Yishai+Chetboun+Marzel)
67 [63] Right-Religious-Kahlon (Parties that have not ruled out nominating Netanyahu in Phase 2)
53 [57] Center-Left-Arab (Parties that have ruled out nominating Netanyahu in Phase 2)
Additional Question:
Which government do you prefer after the election?
36% Right-wing government, 27% Center-Left government, 19% National Unity government
Jeremy's Knesset Insider 
First let me congratulate on your amazing and informative site.
It would seem that the vast majority of Charedim lean towards the right. How come that the 2 leaders Deri and Litzman seem to trust Herzog more?.
Much of UTJ (not all of it) is pacifist in philosophy, because we believe that we cannot reply on miracles – but that we have experienced them. In other words, we don’t automatically assume that the IDF is unbeatable (Heaven forbid), nor that God has given the state a guarantee. Shas has always tried to be a more than a Charedi party, appealing to poor people of all sorts.
You see Shas’ problem? Shas will thrive if they make gains in social welfare. But if they do, they get bigger at the expense of other parties, so it is in the other parties’ interest that they do not.
Teleseker seems to consistently poll the right high, so I don’t really trust this poll. Regardless, it’s still a much worse outcome for Likud than last week’s poll (68-52) with a LIkud/ZU tie. It’s also basically the same as their poll from yesterday, which also leaned much further to the right than everyone else. That said, it is consistent with the trend that ZU and Likud are cannibalizing the smaller parties.
Chareidim only lean to the right because they see Arabs as animals. They expect their MKs to get money for kollelim and keep them out of the IDF and don’t care what the government does besides that because national security is Hashem’s job.
Jeremy…in my opinion the only way we get kahlon to join the bibi led government is if we have 61 seats without him…
Likud 23
By 14
Utj. 7
Shas 7
Yb 6
Yachad 4
Then kahlon 8 gives us 69
Not great but workable
Am I right that that seems to be our only realistic chance of winning this crazy election…or am I missing something
I agree with you. But I think there is little shot at 14 seats for Bennett.
Speaking of Bennett, would it be accurate to say that it is primarily the daati leumi sector that is sticking with him at this point, and that his attempt to broaden the party base has failed?
I’d submit to you that including Marzel in any coalition will be bad news bears for both Israel and that coalition.
First of all I would tell Chris to not give up hope for the BY to succeed on Tuesday. With the great number of undecided center-right voters, everything is possible…
Second I would respond to CupOfCanada, by saying that having Marzel in a caolition is certainly not my favourite but anyway better than having Ahmed Tibi, Hanin Zoabi,…
Zoabi won’t join. Tibi hasn’t called for rival politicians to be killed, or for gay people to be stabbed in the street, so seems like he’s head and shoulders above Marzel lol.
Tibi can give a pretty good speech in the Knesset when he wants too.
Well how about not having Marzel and not the arabs in government. And you know, the arb party represents hamas, muslim brotherhood, …
Does any pollster provide the actual percentage of each party so we could get an idea of how close the parties with 4 mandates are from the 3.25% threshold? Right now, it seems the best chance for the center-left to build a coalition is for Yachad (or Israel Beitenu?) to miss the cutoff.
Probably the best chance for the right-religious to build a stable coalition is for Meretz to miss the threshold too. Agree that it would be very good to know.
Jeremy, there is a typo here. Leftist block is 53 here.
Sent from my Verizon Wireless 4G LTE smartphone
Giving the projected number of seats only from the POV of “parties that have not ruled out nominating Netanyahu in Phase 2” does not give the complete picture and may set yourself up for disappointment. Would it be fair to say that “parties that have not ruled out nominating Herzog in Phase 2” have a projection of at least 62 mandates? The way it looks today, Pres. Rivlin is more likely to give Herzog first crack at forming a coalition.
“36% Right-wing government, 27% Center-Left government, 19% National Unity government”
I guess that leaves another 18% that want no government at all?
ZU should probably assign one or two regions to vote Meretz, better use of votes
Yes, arabs who don’t want the state of Israel to exist probably.
The way things look it may very well end up no government at all.
I’m in!
Yes, maybe new elections (a second round) would be great!
Kulanu party leader Moshe Kahlon, whose allegiances following Tuesday’s general election could be pivotal in determining who will form the next government, said Friday that the Likud-led government had failed and should “clear the way”.
http://www.timesofisrael.com/kahlon-government-has-failed-should-clear-the-way/#ixzz3UHHDmpdH
If Bibi loses he will leave public life but like herpes will return with the next flare up of nationalist paranoia…but as a wise chaver knesset said about predictions,” Kulanu chachamim ktanim” – we are all small geniuses. Shabbat shalom