Midgam conducted a poll of 600 people that was taken out for Army Radio and released on March 11 2015.
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
24 [20] Zionist Union (Labor-Livni)
21 [18] Likud
13 [11] Bayit Yehudi
12 [20] Yesh Atid
12 [11] The Joint (Arab) List
08 [02] Kulanu (Kahlon+Kadima)
07 [10] Shas
07 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
06 [13] Yisrael Beitenu
06 [06] Meretz
04 [02] Yachad (Yishai+Chetboun+Marzel)
66 [63] Right-Religious-Kahlon (Parties that have not ruled out nominating Netanyahu in Phase 2)
54 [57] Center-Left-Arab (Parties that have ruled out nominating Netanyahu in Phase 2)
Additional Question:
Between these two candidates, who is more suited to be Prime Minister?
Netanyahu 48%: Men 48%, Women 49%, Age 18-29 – 57%, Age 30-49 – 47%, Age 50+ – 42%
Herzog 32%: Men 37%, Women 26%, Age 18-29 – 19%, Age 30-49 – 31%, Age 50+ – 45%
Jeremy's Knesset Insider 
Historically which age group has the highest turnout. Because if it true what we are led to believe that the young are showing apathy to the elections. Netanyahu is then in serious trouble as this age group are his main supporters according to the above poll
According to this poll most young people support Bibi, but according to other polls most young israelis who are studying at universities or colleges support Herzog. Curious.
It may be in part because young haredim are under-represented in colleges and universities.
And other people from the economic lower classes.
Interesting that the older crowd prefers Herzog. The original leftie Zionists. Goes against the usual assumption that older people are more conservative.
Great point. Older Israelis remember Ben-Gurion and Meir, both of whom would have involuntarily gagged at the sight of today’s Likud.
And today’s Labor.
And in Israel, the younger you are, the more religious – if you are Jewish. It’s reversed for Arabs. (As per the official statistics.)
Israel is only getting better and better while the rest of the West unfortunately commits suicide through increased third world immigration and worship of secular materialism
Immigration and secularism are working pretty well for us here in Canada FYI.
Important question: Do we believe UTJ and Shas that they won’t sit in a coalition with Yesh Atid? If so, the left can’t form a coalition where it has power unless Netanyahu agrees to a Unity Coalition with rotating power. I tend to believe Lieberman that he won’t sit with Meretz. Thoughts?
I think the religious parties will swallow their pride and sit in a labour coalition rather than being powerless outside.
They wouldn’t be left outside of a coalition. They would prevent the left from forming a coalition and instead would enable Bibi to form one
The left can form a coalition if Kahlon and the Joint List support them. UTJ, Shas and Likud aren’t the only option.
I think a religious-right-Khalon government is still most likely, but your statement isn’t factually correct.
There is no chance whatsoever of that. The Joint List will not join ANY coalition that is Zionist in any way, shape or form, and even if they did, that would push others away, possibly even Yesh Atid. Lapid, even as conciliatory as some of the things he has said have been, has drawn the line at dividing Jerusalem. No chance whatsoever at this combination.
Alex:
“Lapid, even as conciliatory as some of the things he has said have been, has drawn the line at dividing Jerusalem.”
Like Barak, Olmert and others who painted the line at dividing Jerusalem and after offered it to the palestinians. Some likudniks too:
“Jerusalem negotiable, right of return is not, Likud’s Hanegbi tells J Street”
http://www.jta.org/2013/09/30/news-opinion/united-states/jerusalem-negotiable-right-of-return-not-likud-lawmaker-tells-j-street
Herzog is publicly saying now that he will invite Joint List MKs to sit on the FA and Defense committees. He’s serious about doing what he needs to do to get those votes in Phase 2. And Joint List will be willing to play ball if it means the end of PM Bibi.
1-Meretz and Lieberman will not sit in the same government.
2-Lapid and haredim not now, but things could change after the election if Herzog gets a clear victory over Bibi and has the first opportunity to form a coalition.
Agree on both points.
What about Kahlon’s pledge not to sit in a government with non-Zionist parties? Does that rule out kulanu sitting with UTJ? And if so doesn’t that make bb’s task almost impossible?
They could use some tricks:
“Traditionally, as a matter of principle and expression of ideological conviction, no member of Agudat Israel, Degel HaTorah, or the combined United Torah Judaism (Yahadut HaTorah) list ever takes on the position of minister; rather, members of these parties serve only as deputy ministers. This enables them to maintain that they are not participating in a Zionist government and to avoid sharing responsibility for policies with which they do not agree.
http://en.idi.org.il/tools-and-data/israeli-elections-and-parties/political-parties/united-torah-judaism/
That is not a trick. I can think of times when in fact the refusal to make a minster’s position allowed Bibi, who was technically the Minister by default to override the UTJ man’s decision when the press (one of the means by which the far Left runs Israel no matter who is elected) lobbied for a different policy.
Let me give you an example as to why taking a ministership is against our principles. I recall going to the health ministry site, which was technically being run by a UTJ deputy minster.
At the site, up popped pictures of two girls. The caption-bubble said, pretty explicitly, that the visitor to the site could “do” both of them (the phrase used, more or less) if he used “protection”. Even in the US such an ad would be extremely controversial. How could the religious Jew take responsibility for such a thing? (And he wouldn’t dare change it; the papers would call it “exclusion of women” or some such garbage.)
When I talk about trick was about as Kahlon who dont want to sit in a government with no Zionists could form a coalition with Yahadut Hatorah (no zionist).
Their point is to stay in yeshiva and not get drafted. If Yesh Atid is okay with that, they will join them in government.
I would think they (we) would like some school funding. And Shas still tries to be a general “poor people’s” party.
Assuming the big double if that Likud is 4-5 behind and Herzog gets the nod then Bibi may “voluntarily” give up party leadership and a grand coalition may be possible. Alternatively a rump group of centrist Likudniks could align with Kahlon and join a center-left/center right government as the second biggest faction. Under such circumstances the Haredim will hear a bat kol suggesting they join.
I think the only way a “grand coalition” is possible is if Netanyahu steps aside. Perhaps in a deal for Livni stepping aside. He’s become toxic.
Why Livni is become toxic?
She hasn’t. But she seems to raise the hackles of Likud a lot more than Herzog.
OK. Thanks.
If they make the deal, look for it to fall apart after two years. I doubt any religious party could co-exist with Livni.
Your bigotry is unnecessary.
The toxicity of Bibi to many Israelis is exceeded by the toxicity of the radical/secular/Oslo Left to most Israelis. I trust the citizens of the State of Israel and don’t believe the talking points & panic of the mainstream media… and all you Canadians. And Israel is the greatest country on Earth, btw.
Most Israelis are secular. It’s not secularists who are radical. It’s ideologues like those who say silly things like “xxx is the greatest country on earth.” Israel is a great country. Canada is too. That doesn’t mean either is perfect or that either isn’t blinded by emotion and fear to do stupid things — like build homes where they don’t belong. Reasonable people understand that there will be a Palestinian state in territory that is 90% Palestinan. Just like reasonable people believe there will be a Jewish state in Israel proper. It’s the irrational fearful ideologues on both sides who are stopping that from happening.
Terry,
What you’re saying sounds nice, but it’s not true. Secular in Israel does not mean secular in the West. Even the ‘seculars’ in Israel read the Tanankh, keep Kosher, have Passover Seders, etc. The majority of Israelis are traditional and more of Israel is becoming National-Religious.
Your ideas on a Palestinian state are silly. There will never be an Arab state west of the Jordan River. It is what it is. Israel can’t allow it. The whole country knows it. The Arab demographics in the West Bank are outright lies. Taking that into consideration, with increased Aliyah and paying some Arabs to emigrate, Israel can get to an 80-85% Jewish majority (excluding Gaza) within 20 years. It can happen, especially if America elects a non-hostile President in 2016. It will happen. Territorial concessions would be ridiculous.
Actually that is not true ,most Israeli’s are traditional or religious.
Proof, Mizrahim make up a majority, certainly of the Jewish population and as everyone in the know will tell you the overwhelming majority of Mizrahim if not observant are traditional. The secular (your term) religious divide is blurred amongst them. Add the observant Ashkenazim / Haradim / Modern Orthodox and yes even traditional and you have a significant traditional / religious majority and that’s not a decreasing trend either.
“Israel is a great country. Canada is too.”
No, Canada is better. That’s not a dig at Israel. It is hard to be better or at the same level of Canada and I bet there are a lot more Israelis who would like an entry visa to Canada than vice versa.
According to the official statistics, slightly less than half of Jewish Israelis define themselves as secular. (And Arabs aren’t Israelis? Shame on you.)
You sound like Obama talking about American Exceptionalism.
PS – The greatest country in the world, and the least anti-Semitic, is, of course, the United States of America. I have relatives in Montreal, and I wouldn’t care to live there. I even recall when your entire bill of rights was suspended. (Maybe in Toronto, but if I have to live under – ugh – socialized medicine, I prefer Israel’s system.)
What would happen if Netanyahu were to stand down immediately after the elections and would be replaced by Saar or Katz.
Such a scenario might make it easier for Kulanu, YB and even YA to support them.. Would Rivlin be allowed to ask them to form a government?.
Rivlin must ask an elected member of the Knesset to form a government. He can, based on his soundings, bypass a party leader. Saar is not a candidate this time around.
I am going to jump in here.
The law says Rivlin needs to make his decisions based on his consultations with the party leaders. Rivlin can’t bypass the 11 expected party leaders.
Gee, Moshe, great idea. Maybe Bill Clinton can be granted aliyah & form the coalition.
Bibi is not stepping aside for anyone, especially not Sa’ar, a quitter. Or any other Likud Party Disloyalist.
The whole point of this election was and is to rid the ruling coalition of Livni, Lapid and small parties & small personalities that will hold the majority hostage for their personal mental malfunction.
All of Kulanu belongs in the Likud. As does YB, way down in the slate. Yachad should work with and join BY. Shas and UTJ should suppress their disdain of each other & merge.
Meretz should join Herzog and he should own up to his leftist world-view.
Kol Havod to UAL!—suppressing (for now) ideology for party, participation and power.
Bigger Parties, Bigger Ideas & a Bigger Choice:
Bennett said it perfectly today: “The Primitive Mezuzah Kissers Will Win”.
I’m not sure all kulanu belongs in Likud when the last poll posted on here showed more Kulanu supporters chose Herzog over Netsnyahu. Kulanu probably represents the old Likud, the one that hasn’t been hijacked by right wing radicals.
Terry levine, what you call the “old” Likud, was a party that did not make territorial concessions a red line, which in practice meant that it did not follow the (current) Likud constitution. The “new” Likud is not a hijacked party – it is a party that (partly) stands on principal, e.g. meaning that all of Eretz Yisrael belongs to the jewish people and to nobody else!
If someone is angry about the “old” Likud not existing, then get over yourself. Times change and with it the society!
Eli Yishai in a party that is barely religious (by policy)? In your dreams. Maybe if Shaked takes over.
It appears that you remember a different Menachem Begin than I do.
Jeremy,
Great site. Great job. To your point, most people I know love Bennett, but want Bibi to remain as PM (unfortunately for this, I am American). If lets just say this particular poll is accurate, will Herzog be able to form a coalition? Will he have first chance?
Thanks!
I know many loyal readers disagree with me on this but Netanyahu should be OK as long as the parties that have not ruled out nominating Netanyahu in Phase 2 remain 61 or over. Netanyahu is toast if the four lists (Zionist Union, Yesh Atid, The Joint List, Meretz) hit 61.
As someone who loves Israel but lives in England I can tell you that most of the (unfortunately large) pro-Palestinian crowd want the Bibi/Bennett team to win, as it would hasten Israel’s international isolation and/or lead to a one-state solution and the end of Zionism.
Not knocking you, but define Zionsim?
Zionism as a movement refers to the historical process that began in the late 19th century, culminated in the establishment of the State of Israel.
As for Zionism as an ideology, the broadest one could go is probably “Jewish self-determination”. It would be reasonable to go a bit further and say “Jewish self-determination in the land of Israel”. For me personally, this also necessarily implies a democratic state. Not just because of moral reasons (though they are important), but also as a strategic consideration : In this day and age any undemocratic regime is living on borrowed time. For the state to be both democratic and serve as viable manifestation of Jewish self-determination, it must have a Jewish majority.
My above reference to “the end of Zionism” (as envisioned by those people) meant an end of Israel as a Jewish state. They believe the two-state solution is dead and therefore think the fastest path to a one-state solution is to have increasingly extreme Israeli governments which will gradually lead to international pressure on Isreal to give citizenship and equal rights to Palestinians living in the WB & Gaza. They’re afraid that a left-wing government won’t be any better for the Palestinians but will take some of the momentum away from BDS etc. That is their view.
My opinion is that the two state solution is not dead even though Netanyahu is doing his best to kill it. In that respect I agree with Amos Oz when he says that this goverment is the most anti-Zionist in Israel’s history. By continued settlement activity, separation is becoming increasingly difficult. And this is also the opinion of all former heads of the Shin Bet and Mossad, as well as many other high-ranking officials in the security establishment . To be honest, what convinced me wasn’t just these people from the security establishment, but the right wing response to them. You don’t have to agree with every word Meir Dagan says. You can very strongly disagree. But you have to do it arguments. Dismissing Meir Dagan as an “ungrateful leftist” is unacceptable. This man hasn’t spent his life doing “Peace Now” activism. He spent his life defending Israel, risking his life as well as killing people when required. When he says Israel is going in the wrong direction, you’re not obliged to agree, but you are required to take him seriously. For me the Likud’s response only proved to me that he is probably right.
“To your point, most people I know love Bennett”
Do you live in a “modern Orthodox” community? Because that is his demographic in Israel and in the Diaspora. I have many nice things to say about them (having lived in those communities myself) but their politics are a dangerous mix of nationalism and religion (they aren’t yet ‘modern’ enough to think that perhaps God shouldn’t be brought into the Arab-Jewish land dispute).
I would rather think that the only people who base their security policy on religion are the Left, who have this irrational belief in the Religion of Oslo. Otherwise we Chareidim would be on your side, since we aren’t nationalist and don’t believe in relying on miracles.
They is no solution. Wishing doesn’t make it so. That’s magical thinking.
Jeremy,
And if other party leaders outside of Likud said they can work (only for example) with Shalom or Erdan but not
Bibi does not the President have the power to go with that?
What you are talking about is a scenario where Netanyahu and Herzog fail to get 61 seats from the 11 party leaders. I just don’t see this happening. It is in the interest of the other parties to choose sides between Phase 1 and Phase 2. Rivlin has also said he would do everything in his power to pressure the other parties to do so. Rivlin would push for a national unity government before going to other options.
I agree with you Jeremy that barring a clear Likud win Rivlin might push for a national unity government particularly since a narrow rightist government would give too many parties the individual ability to pull out and force another round of elections. Stability and national consensus are big issues with the President.
Do you think there is good chance that once again the Chareidi parties will choose Bibi and then get frozen out of the final coalition?
It would also appear that it is against Bib’s interest to give Shas what it wants, which is social changes. Because if he does, Shas will take votes from him. If he squeezes them to accept only religious matters and funding, then he gets their votes (or Bennet does).
I think there is one thing we can all agree on. It is highly unlikely that the next government will be significantly more stable then the last one.
Maybe we need to increase the minimum threshold to 20% (joke)
10% minimum threshold is warranted, no joke.
Appreciating the time and effort you put into your blog and in depth information yoou offer.
It’s goold to come across a blog every once in a while that
isn’t the same out of date rehashed information. Fantastic read!
I’ve bookmarked your site and I’m adding your RSS feeds to
my Google account.