Midgam conducted a poll of 1003 people that was taken out for Channel 2 and released on March 10 2015.
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
25 [20] Zionist Union (Labor-Livni)
21 [18] Likud
13 [11] Bayit Yehudi
13 [11] The Joint (Arab) List
12 [20] Yesh Atid
08 [02] Kulanu (Kahlon+Kadima)
07 [10] Shas
06 [13] Yisrael Beitenu
06 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
05 [06] Meretz
04 [02] Yachad (Yishai+Chetboun+Marzel)
65 [63] Right-Religious-Kahlon (Parties that have not ruled out nominating Netanyahu in Phase 2)
55 [57] Center-Left-Arab (Parties that have ruled out nominating Netanyahu in Phase 2)
Panels Poll today with interesting follow-up questions: https://knessetjeremy.com/2015/03/10/panelsknesset-channel-poll-zionist-union-24-likud-21-yesh-atid-14-the-joint-arab-list-13-bayit-yehudi-12-kulanu-9/
Jeremy's Knesset Insider 
Likud down 2, Labor-Livni up 1 from last week’s poll.
Likud+BY+Kulanu+Shas+YB+UTJ+Yachad = 65
ZU+YA+Kulanu+Meretz = 50
Looks like Bibi is still going to have an easier time forming a coalition.
Kahlon has a tough last week coming up – his right leaning supporters worried about a Herzog government and lapid accusing him of being tied to Bibi while Deri plays the ethnic card to the hilt. At the same time, if despair kicks in with Likud voters some might break to Kulanu to punish Bibi and feel. they are at least voting for someone guaranteed a major ministry in the next government.
According to that poll the other day his supporters actually prefer Herzog.
High tide of Labor & Bibi-weariness a week out, last kilometer of the 10K sprint.
Selling Herzog futures contracts as I write: Do any of the undecideds find this guy in any way exciting or inspiring of any authentic patriotic emotion? Is he not just the Anti-Bibi Israeli WASP (White-Ashkenaz-Sabra-With Protexia)?
Maybe all the pols can support Shaked for PM in a deadlock. She is a hard-core BY operative, also serious, smart, sophisticated, secular….and Sizzzling! Place your bets…
So Herzog isn’t that inspiring. Maybe it’s time for a boring, responsible adult to run things for a change? And I dunno, is Herzog more WASPy than Netanyahu? At least his mother is from Egypt.
The problem with Herzog isn’t that he’s “boring–it’s that if you listen to what he says, he is effectively going to turn responsibility for Israel’s security over the the United States. Nothing “responsible” about that, i’m afraid
Actually, as a Chareidi, I prefer Shaked to Bennet. (Barring the halachic issue, of course.)
Hi. Could someone help me understand the “Joint Arab List?” They’re a collection of Arab parties who joined together to avoid failing to cross the now-higher minimum percent threshold necessary to enter the Knesset, right? But once they’re past the election, won’t they break up again into different Arab parties with different plans, goals and ideologies?
Also, I’ve heard that some Arabs within the Joint List have already stated they refuse to work with/recommend “Zionists” in Jeremy’s Stage II of the election (I’m thinking people like Zoabi or Zeitra.) If so, wouldn’t that mean that even if the Arabs win say 13 in the list, maybe 3, 4, or 5 of these seats might disappear due to those seats’ parties deciding they cannot work with “Zionists” like the Zionist Union? (For example, see: http://www.jpost.com/Israel-Elections/Arab-Joint-List-rejects-idea-of-joining-Herzog-led-government-392787)
Conclusion: isn’t the Joint Arab List just a tool for the election (Stage I), but shouldn’t be thought of as monolithic/speaking with one voice come Stage II (recommendations to the Pres?) Is all this correct? Thanks in advance for taking time to help me out!
The Joint Arab List may break up. In fact, if it stays together, this will probably because they’re afraid of the backlash from their voters if they break up. In particular, a recent poll, showed that 86% of the List’s voters want the List to remain united following the election and 45% of its voters claimed that the unification of the List was significantly influenced their decision to vote.
Basically, if it stays together, it will probably be because the parties making up the List fear their voters.
On the subject of Stage II, the JAL’s plan seems to be recommending that Herzog form the government in Stage II and then refusing to serve in that government in Stage III, so that he would need to find a coalition without them. Of course, they could be lying (as parties often change their mind after the elections) but this is consistent with their stated goal of defeating Bibi without joining any Zionist government. It is also possible that Rivlin will ignore the recommendation, since they’ve stated that they won’t serve in any government (and, consequently, their recommendation does not imply that Herzog will have an easier time forming a government). On the subject of Zoabi, in particular, she’s on record a couple of days ago saying that, after having rejected a vote sharing agreement with Meretz, Balad could now be more flexible in its recommendation, and that she would do anything to bring down Netanyahu.
About the arab voters and the Joint List a electoral coalition of arab parties was supported by a mayority of the arab voters before the rise of the treshold:
http://www.nrg.co.il/online/1/ART2/551/181.html?hp=1&cat=404
The arab parties had alternatives to a united list to cross the new treshold. Two list for example: Raam-Taal (like in 2006, 2009 and 2013 elections) and Balad-Hadash (like in 1996 elections), Hadash-Taal (like in 2003) and Raam-Balad, etc, but they prefered go all together because it´s supported by the mayority of the arab public and could get more votes (it seems like in national issues the arab parties have more in common than differences).
“it seems like in national issues the arab parties have more in common than differences”
Frecuently the differences are more about personal egos.
The Arab parties have self-excluded (against the opinion of many of their voters) to be part of a “Zionist government”, but could (or some of them) recommend Herzog in phase 2, and even support their government from outside as with Rabin.
Support from the outside is possible, but the real question is whether Herzog can form a government at all without Likud. I have not seen a poll which puts Meretz+ZU+Lapid+Kulanu above 52 seats, while Shas and UTJ both refuse to sit with Lapid.
So, you might get Labour/Likud with the JAL supporting from outside on some diplomatic issues, but I’m not enthusiastic about Labour/Likud national unity, particularly if Netanyahu remains the PM. In truth, I have the same worries as Lapid had last night: Netanyahu led unity gov with Haredim bribed by cancelling of the Haredi draft law and Kahlon, basically killing the ZU, as its supporters all abandon it due to the betrayal of its principals. Netanyahu already killed both Labour and Kadima using exactly this tactic, and I’m not confident that Herzog/Livni will be smart enough not to fall for it again in return for a seat in the government. It would just be one more do-nothing Netanyahu government, bribing the Haredim and settlers with everyone else’s money, while desperately trying to hang on in security issues, rather than trying to make things better.
In theory a government of HaMahaneh HaTzioni/Meretz/Yesh Atid/Kulanu + Joint List (or some of their members) supporting goverment from the outside could be possible, but unlikely (although is realistic that they will get more than 60 MK´s).
But it also seems that some likudniks are worried that a government led by Herzog (without the Likud?) could be formed:
“I wouldn’t use the word ‘desperate,’ but it is likely that the other side will get the first chance to form a government, and if they get that chance they probably can,” a Likud strategist said. “The only thing that can stop that from happening is a large Likud.”
http://www.jpost.com/landedpages/printarticle.aspx?id=393557
Everything is possible.
@Miguel
No it is not possible. Kahlon said he refuses to join a coalition with the non-zionist (UAL and possibly Meretz. The only way it will be possible is if he goes against his word.
@David
1- Meretz is zionist, they call themselves zionists and are part of World Zionist Organization. The only parties that are not zionist are Joint List and Yahadut Hatorah.
2-Joint List will not be part of any coalition (they said it, not with Bibi, Herzog, Kahlon, Meretz, etc), but could support the government from outside. It´s not the same, even it’s very unlikely.
Why is getting what you were elected to request a “bribe”?
Nathan: Why is asking what you were elected to request a bribe?
Miguel: Find me the word Tzioni in the official Meretz website. If they are Zionist, they are sure hiding it.
Reminds me of the last municipal election in Jerusalem. It appear that throwing Jews out of their homes is Zionist, while supporting settling all of the land of Israel is not. At least that’s what Barkat sold last time.
mzk1, Meretz calls itself Zionist. Therefore, it is Zionist. Just not your kind of Zionist.
Meretez:
מרצ היא מפלגת שמאל סוציאל-דמוקרטית ציונית ישראלית
http://he.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D7%9E%D7%A8%D7%A6
Balad and Raam rejected that the Joint List signed a voter exchange agreement with Meretz because they are zionist:
http://m.maariv.co.il/HomePage/FrontPage/Article.aspx?id=467054
Meretz are part of the World Zionist Organization:
http://www.wzo.org.il/Zionist-Executive