Panels conducted a poll that was taken out for Knesset Channel and was released on March 3 2015.
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
24 [20] Zionist Union (Labor-Livni)
21 [18] Likud
13 [20] Yesh Atid
13 [11] The Joint (Arab) List
12 [11] Bayit Yehudi
08 [02] Kulanu (Kahlon+Kadima)
07 [10] Shas
07 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
06 [06] Meretz
05 [13] Yisrael Beitenu
04 [02] Yachad (Yishai+Chetboun+Marzel)
64 [63] Right-Religious-Kahlon (Parties that have not ruled out nominating Netanyahu in Phase 2)
56 [57] Center-Left-Arab (Parties that have ruled out nominating Netanyahu in Phase 2)
Jeremy's Knesset Insider 
According to this poll Right-Religious parties have 56 MK´s, and Center-Left-Arab parties have 56 MK´s too. Kahlon 8. It’s the first time there is a tie between the two “groups”.
Center-Left (HaMahaneh HaTzioni, Yesh Atid, Meretz): 43 MK´s.
Right (Llikud, HaBait HaYehudi, Israel Beitenu, Yachad): 42 MK´s.
Haredim (Shas, Yahadut Hatorah): 14 MK´s.
Arab parties: 13 MK´s.
Kulanu: 8 MK´s.
56 for the first time, I believe.
Kahlon will be the kingmaker.
Zionist Union + Yesh Atid + Yisrael Beitenu + Kulano would be 50 MKs. If Meretz and the Joint List abstained, then that would be 50 MKs for a centre bloc against 51 MKs for a right-religious bloc.
Would a scenario like that be plausible (if the polls shift more)?
It’ll be interesting to see what effect if anything Bibi’s speech will have on the polls. I’d expect a Likud bump at least for a bit.
Why would YB join with those parties and not the right-religious bloc?
I don’t think it’s particularly likely. Kulanu would be more likely to lean right too.
My understanding though was that Lieberman has a bit of a personal dislike for Bibi though, no?
Which makes him a bit of a loose cannon in any coalition.
Taking it on further from CupOfCanada, I think all the leaders of the right – religious block have some dislike of one or the other, be it Bibi, Bennett, Kahlon, Liberman, Litzman , Deri, Yishai. 2 years and another election.
Sadly (I’m a leftist) I think that, dispite the scandals and the failure of Netanyahu’s governments, he’s going to be the next prime minister, another time.
The only way (and only according to this poll, which is the most optimistic) for Herzog to make a coalition and a government is:
ZU (24)+ YA (13) +JAL (13) +MERETZ (6) + KOOLANU (8) = 64
however, It’s difficult to think that Kahlon, a Likudnik, will sit with the Arabs. Someone hypothesizes that Herzog will form his government with Shas and UTJ instead of “The Joint List”, thus satisfying Kahlon, but:
1. Shas and UTJ will never sit together with Lapid and viceversa
2. Shas and UTJ will sit together in a government?
So in this hypothetical social-religious government:
ZU (24) + KOOLANU (8) + SHAS (7) + UTJ (7) + MERETZ (6) = 52
In conclusion, Herzog’s hope of becoming PM is almost certainly impossible. But as written in the hatikwa: “עוד לא אבדה תקוותינו”=”our hope is not yet lost”.
Ariel,
Today it seems almost impossible that haredim and Lapid sit together in a government, but also we have to understand that we are before elections, when all parties want to look strong in their positions (Lapid: I will not give in nothing to the haredim, etc). But after the elections who knows that could happen…
The List has ruled out joining that government, but has not ruled out recommending Herzog or supporting his government in a confidence vote.