Maagar Mochot conducted a poll that was taken out for Kol Bramah and was released on March 2 2015.
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
24 [20] Zionist Union (Labor-Livni)
23 [18] Likud
12 [11] Bayit Yehudi
12 [11] The Joint (Arab) List
11 [20] Yesh Atid
08 [02] Kulanu (Kahlon+Kadima)
07 [10] Shas
07 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
06 [13] Yisrael Beitenu
05 [06] Meretz
05 [02] Yachad (Yishai+Chetboun+Marzel)
68 [63] Right-Religious-Kahlon (Parties that have not ruled out nominating Netanyahu in Phase 2)
52 [57] Center-Left-Arab (Parties that have ruled out nominating Netanyahu in Phase 2)
Additional Questions
Who is continuing the path of Rav Ovadiah Yosef?
40% Eli Yishai, 38% Netiher of them, 22% Aryeh Deri
Will Shas sit in the next government no matter what?
54% Yes, 46% No
Should UTJ & Shas sign an alliance bloc where they both agree that one will not go into the next coalition without the other?
57% Yes, 43% No
Question for Traditional & Religious voters: Should Shas & Yachad merge after the elections?
54% Yes, 46% No
Is there any way Bennet could get nominated by Shas, UTJ, Yishai and his pal Kahlon (they were chummy at the debate) and be PM with ~40+ nominations in stage 2?
You know, I have been thinking kind of the same. Someone correct me if I am wrong, but I have got the picture that both Bennett and Kahlon want to develop Israel into a (more than today) free market system – break-up of monopolies, cartels, increase competition, etc.
How about social policy? How close/similar are BY and Kulanu? If there is some connection/similarity, then it would maybe be possible for Kahlon to sit in a BY-led govt. In that way Kahlon could surely give Netanyahu some pay-back for old twists…
Why would hareidim agree/want to support Bennett for PM? Maybe because they could be reluctant to believe in Netanyahu’s promises after the last term. Also to get a religious (of some degree – sufficient for them???) PM.
Maybe also Lieberman could support Bennett (to get back at Netanyahu for the things that has happened during the last years.
Then after all of this, I guess Likud would have to agree to sit in Bennett’s govt – maybe Netanyahu would in this situation be replaced.
Not likely to happen, and this is sort of thing that could happen if BOTH Netanyahu and Herzog fail to put together a coalition, and you’d get to that only after months of trying – but Bennett is not the person to unite people – Aryeh Deri maybe could be Prime Minister in a national unity government if neither Netanyahu or Herzog wanted to serve under the other.
I think people would prefer Bennet than Machlouf as PM
I would think Kahlon would be a more likely PM than either Bennett or Deri
Maybe in the future, but I do not think Chareidi voters are too fond of Bennet right now. (BTW, this is one chareidi voter who really likes Shaked.)
BTW, Shas, at least, strikes me as rather socialist.
Would you not like to see Bennett as PM rather than Netanyahu?
Great opportunity missed in the additional questions on Shas. If twice more people think Yishai rather than Deri is following Rav Ovadia, why have the majority of Shas voters not switched to Yishai?
The bigger picture, however the individual polls split the mandates. Team Likud as defined by Jeremy, continues to have a comfortable lead and seems to be the most viable option for the next government.
Because that is a general poll, not a Shas-Yishai voters poll.
The first three questions were asked of all voters? That seems very strange. Or were they asked of former Shas voters?
“Should UTJ & Shas sign an alliance bloc where they both agree that one will not go into the next coalition without the other?”
This is a very interesting question. Has anyone done the math on whether or not this strengthens or weakens the overall voting power for UTJ & Shas voters? IE from a strick game theory sense?
As a person of the left I nevertheless believes that unless Buji breaks the 25 seat ceiling a Bibi government is inevitable. However Bibi’s second worse nightmare is a narrow right government with Bennett as Defense Minister. As polls now stands, if Bibi gets the nod in phase 2, his first call in phase 3 will be Buji.
Parties merge BEFORE the elections, and separate afterwards, not the other way around.
In this case, Baruch Marzel already intends to split from Yachad.
Yachad and Shas (and UTJ) might co-operate, but the only reason for a merger would be have a joint list in the next elections. Separate, nobody has to agree on who is boss.