Midgam conducted a poll that was taken out for Channel 2 and was released on Feb 24 2015.
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
24 [20] Zionist Union (Labor-Livni)
22 [18] Likud
12 [20] Yesh Atid
12 [11] Bayit Yehudi
12 [11] The Joint (Arab) List
07 [02] Koolanu (Kahlon+Kadima)
07 [10] Shas
07 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
06 [13] Yisrael Beitenu
06 [06] Meretz
05 [02] Yachad (Yishai+Chetboun+Marzel)
66 [63] Right-Religious-Kahlon (Parties that have not ruled out nominating Netanyahu in Phase 2)
54 [57] Center-Left-Arab (Parties that have ruled out nominating Netanyahu in Phase 2)
If these are the actual numbers, it will come down to Koolanu. If ZU, YA, the LIst and Meretz, get to 53, likely the same. Anything less and the right will likely form government.