Dialog conducted a poll that was taken out for Haaretz and was released on Feb 25 2015.
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
23 [20] Zionist Union (Labor-Livni)
23 [18] Likud
12 [20] Yesh Atid
12 [11] Bayit Yehudi
12 [11] The Joint (Arab) List
09 [02] Koolanu (Kahlon+Kadima)
07 [10] Shas
07 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
06 [13] Yisrael Beitenu
05 [06] Meretz
04 [02] Yachad (Yishai+Chetboun+Marzel)
68 [63] Right-Religious-Kahlon (Parties that have not ruled out nominating Netanyahu in Phase 2)
52 [57] Center-Left-Arab (Parties that have ruled out nominating Netanyahu in Phase 2)
Interesting additional question that I will add:
Number of undecided voters (Largest Party that they are leaning towards)
1 – Yachad 49% (15% Shas,15% UTJ)
2 – Zionist Union 43% (17% Yesh Atid)
3 – The Joint List 40% (40% Meretz)
4 – Shas 38% (11% Yachad)
5 – Likud 36% (17% Bayit Yehudi)
6 – Yesh Atid 36% (14% Zionist Union)
7 – Bayit Yehudi 34% (17% Likud)
8 – Koolanu 29% (10% Yesh Atid)
9 – Yisrael Beitenu 29% (10% Koolanu)
10 – Meretz 26% (19% Zionist Union)
11 – UTJ 15% (7% Yachad)
Quick Take: Interesting that half of Yachad voters have not finalized their vote. Important to note that Likud voters are more locked in than Zionist Union voters.
Jeremy's Knesset Insider 
Jeremy, from what I have read close to 20% of the electorate is undecided. Yet all the polls come to 120 seats. Shouldn’t the poll results come to 95 seats with around 25 seats undecided? In the US polls always include % undecided. Are the undecided simply ignored in the israeli polls?
If so does this overcount the right? I have also read that the undecided are more likely to lean left.
Thanks!
There are two different ways to deal with undecided voters. Most polling companies ask them a follow-up on who they would vote for today if they had to, even if they are undecided right now. This usually cuts the undecided voters in half. In private polls they will ask them to list and rank the lists they are considering. The second option that few polling companies use is to simply not count the undecided voters at all and this increases their margin of error. Another factor that is not discussed enough is that many undecided voters remain undecided and do not vote on election day. An example of a caller: “I am frustrated that the MK I like was thrown off the Shas list and I am undecided between Shas or not voting at all”.
As for the question on is the undecided vote more left or right, this is a complex issue. Yesh Atid is a great example of this because many right-wing voters are undecided with Yesh Atid as one of their options. It might seem unusual to some who have never seen an internal poll before but there are many undecided voters between Yesh Atid and Bayit Yehudi on one side, as well as Yesh Atid and Meretz on the other.
Jeremy,
was it not last time the case that 5 (?) seats that could have gone to BY, but instead went to YA because of Likud’s slandering against BY?
Is it now again the case that 5 (more?) seats are considering BY or YA? Then one can hope for Likud to behave better this time and hope that BY can make the end of the campaign a success by winning 5-? seats. This would be really important to stop Netanyahu from having to take/taking centrists into the future coalition. Also it would further worsen Herzog’s chance to create a (majority) government.
We know that Likud’s aggressive campaign against Bayit Yehudi caused the swing from Bayit Yehudi to Yesh Atid and that is why Likud is campaigning against Bayit Yehudi in a less obvious way in this election. In this election there is a smaller, yet still significant, number of undecided voters between BY & YA.
YA vs BY and YA vs MRZ makes sense to me.
I recall when I was younger that they actually passed a law in New York requiring pollsters who revealed partial results to reveal everything. No idea of the details or how that would work, but these incomplete results are frustrating.
Is there any chance that the Arab parties will be a part of a labor led coalition government?
Shouldn’t kahlon clarify in which direction he is leaning…or does his lack of clarification show us that he intends to be part of the government no matter what?
I have gone into this in-depth many times. Arabs could be a player in Phase 2, but not in Phase 3.
Kahlon made it clear he is running to be the next Israeli Finance Minister and he cares less about who is Prime Minister.
I think Kahlon could not care less about who is prime minister.
Why “can’t” they be players in Phase 3? I’d think they probably won’t, but that poll you shared the other day shows the vast majority their voters wanting the Joint List to join a coalition.
The leader of The Joint List (from Hadash) has already ruled out joining the government and now MK Tibi, considered the most likely to join out of the four party leaders, has ruled it out as well.
http://www.haaretz.com/news/israel-election-2015/.premium-1.643895
It is clear the leadership is not paying attention to the Haaretz Poll.
How much hate and disgust do you expect to be thrown against the “Zionist Union” if it is ultimately the anti-Zionist Joint List that allows them to form a government?
Sorry, meant to add something else before hitting submit. What I meant to ask was how much do you think such a decision would destabilize the “Zionist Union”?
Obviously exist a gap between the views of the leaders of the arab parties and their voters. As David said in the post about Haaretz´s poll: “I think most of it will vote for them just UAL Because They are Arab”.
But it also raises another question to me. If there are important difference between the positions of the Arab parties and their voters, why the other parties (no arab parties: Meretz, Zionist Union, Likud, Yesh Atid, etc) are not able to get more votes in the Arab sector? Maybe they should think about this.
This is an interesting article in Hebrew in which the other 2 Arab lists running in this election talk about the issues reflected in last week’s Haaretz poll.
http://www.haaretz.co.il/news/elections/hasima/.premium-1.2573089
Of course neither list is expected to pass the electoral threshold, it will be interesting to see how many protest votes they both receive.
Very interesting article! Thank You! By the way, someone knows what happened with the Sons of New Testament party (Arab Christians who want to serve in Tzahal)?
I also suppose that with the rise of the electoral threshold is more difficult for these parties succeed, although before (when the threshold was 2%) didn’t work very well.
Another thing, I read that 40% of the Joint List voters could change their vote to Meretz (all voters of the Joint List who could change their vote would be to Meretz, not to any other party, including Zionist Union who has Bahlul Zuhair, an arab candidate, in a very realistic position. This could also be something to analize). I also see that Issawi Frej (MK’s arab of Meretz and third in the list for these elections) is campaigning among Arab voters saying that Meretz has a chance and wants to be part of the next goverment (with Herzog). I guess it’s a way to get those Arab voters who would like that Joint List was part of the government but as this arab parties reject it, this voters could choose Meretz.
Jeremy – Saw those comments, but presumably all bets are off once phase 1 is over? I imagine a narrative that a vote for the Joint List is effectively a vote for Netanyahu is not something Joint List will want out there. I’d think politicians in all countries have a proud tradition of promising to do one thing during the election, and then doing the opposite once the election is over.
low high var
Zionist Union (Labor-Livni) 23 25 9%
Likud 23 27 17%
Yesh Atid 11 12 9%
Bayit Yehudi 11 14 27%
The Joint (Arab) List 12 13 8%
Koolanu (Kahlon+Kadima) 7 9 29%
Shas 4 7 75%
Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ 7 8 14%
Yisrael Beitenu 5 7 40%
Meretz 4 6 50%
Yachad 4 5 25%
what conclusions can we draw from this weeks poll so far?
1. turnout turnout turnout
2. If Yishai does not pass the threshold wasted votes can be dererminate
3. If Meretz hangs in there there excess vote arrangement with the Zionist Camp can add a seat
4. In phase 2 the President might look at the disparate interests and demands of the 5-6 smaller that would destabilize a Bibi government. Buji has an easier time particularly on the economic front of maintaining shalom bayit.
$ – Does he have a right to do this?
Should have been 4.
>> half of Yachad voters have not finalized their vote
Wouldn’t that be because of uncertainty over whether it would pass the electoral threshold?
I would hope they would be intelligent and vote BY to prevent Netanyahu (because of pressure from guys like Hanegbi etc. ??) from selling out Yesha and creating a unity govt with Buji and Tzipi.
I don’t see how that will help. (OK, if it doesn’t pass. But if they vote BY, then the other votes will be lost.) More to the point, what is there to sell out? Bennet didn’t stop a partial freeze. You really think the PA will suddenly sign on the dotted line?
I ask, mzk1, what would have happened if BY had left the govt because of the covert building freeze? Would there have been new elections called? No, probably not. Instead Netanyahu would have offered Labor so much power that Labor would have entered the govt and then there would have been a real, official building freeze and maybe by now also an agreement to establish a PA state. There would have been more terrorists released!
But if BY will become big enough – like 17-19 seats – then with Yachad, Shas and UTJ allying with BY, Netanyahu can be prevented from taking leftists into the govt. Bennett could get the sole right to discuss the peace process with the world powers and also stop the nonsense know as 2-state-solution.
Has the ‘Center-Left-Arab’ coalition ever polled over a majority?
I rally appreciate the undecided, but I can’t make head nor tail out of it. Anyone want to explain the numbers (what they mean, not the implications)?