Smith conducted a poll that was published by Globes on Jan 1st 2015.
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
24 [21] Labor-Livni
22 [18] Likud
16 [11] Bayit Yehudi
11 [11] *United Arab List (6 Hadash, 5 others)
10 [–] Koolanu (Kahlon)
09 [19] Yesh Atid
07 [13] Yisrael Beitenu
07 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
07 [06] Meretz
07 [10] Shas
00 [02] Ha’am Itanu (Yishai/Chetboun) – under 3.25% threshold.
00 [02] Kadima
69 [61] Right-Religious-Kahlon (Parties that have not ruled out a BB coalition)
51 [59] Center-Left-Arab (Parties that have ruled out a BB coalition)
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Interesting given the results of the Likud primaries. Likud returns to it’s base but loses some fire on the right. This leads to an opening for BY to pick off a mandate or two. But a weakened Likud then becomes a candidate for a partnership in a Labor led government that includes Kulanu, YB and Yesh Atid. Kahlon and Rivlin are the kingmakers.
the left will never be able to form a coalition, in order to form a government, Herzog needs to bring Lapid, Lieberman, Kahlon, the Haredim or Shas + Meretz together, Meretz wont stay with Lieberman, and the Haredim or Shas wont stay with Lapid, the easiest coalition is Likud, Jewish Home, Lieberman, Kahlon, and Utj if Yishai failed to enter the knesset and Deri refused to join, it will be 22+16+7+10+7=62 without shas
Or Likud picks up votes from Kahlon/Labor-Livni/Liberman/Yesh, BY loses votes after incessant attacks by virtually everyone bar Likud, Shas strengthens and Netenyahu goes around with a great big grin.
Seeing as a poll just over a week ago reported well over 50% of voters as undecided, so even allowing for exaggeration that allows for all sorts of possibilities and we are still 2 1/2 months away.