Dialog conducted a poll that was broadcast on December 31 by Channel 10.
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
23 [21] Labor-Livni
21 [18] Likud
17 [11] Bayit Yehudi
11 [11] *United Arab List
10 [–] Koolanu (Kahlon)
09 [19] Yesh Atid
07 [13] Yisrael Beitenu
07 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
06 [06] Meretz
05 [10] Shas
04 [02] Ha’am Itanu (Yishai/Chetboun) – over 3.25% threshold.
00 [02] Kadima
71 [61] Right-Religious-Kahlon (Parties that have not ruled out a BB coalition)
49 [59] Center-Left-Arab (Parties that have ruled out a BB coalition)
Additional Questions
Who is most suited for Prime Minister?
43% Netanyahu 33% Herzog 24% Don’t know
Jeremy's Knesset Insider 
Does yichai get 4 or 2.5 seats ?
I think you mean Yishai, and I have the same question.
I still think the great unremarked story is the deflation of Meretz. Any idea why UTJ no longer shows up with 8? You would think Shas’ troubles would help them; about the only slack in their public is that dissident Ashkenazim will go to Shas.
Have an easy fast.
4 seats
Jeremy – Thank you for running this interesting blog site. One important subject on which I have seen little analysis (here or elsewhere) is how President Rivlin will decide which party gets the first opportunity to form a coalition after the elections, and the politics/strategy associated with this process. Let us suppose for a moment the following hypothetical result:
24 Labor-Livni
22 Likud
16 Bayit Yehudi
12 Yesh Atid
11 United Arab List
09 Koolanu
07 Yisrael Beitenu
07 UTJ
06 Meretz
06 Shas
This would appear to be a good result for the center/left, with Labor-Livni winning two more seats than Likud, Yesh Atid posting decent results, the “religious parties” only winning 13 seats, and the extreme right wing Ha’am Itanu falling below the 3.25% threshold. However, even if Labor was given the opportunity to form a coalition with this result, they would appear to have difficulty doing so. A Labor + Yesh Atid + Koolanu + Yisrael Beitenu coalition only gets them to 52 seats. Even adding 6 seats from Shas (perhaps more amenable to joining a Labor led coalition after the Ha’am Itanu spinoff?) only totals 58. This means that either Meretz or UTJ would also have to join the coalition, requiring either Yisrael Beitenu to sit in coalition with Meretz (unlikely but possible?), or UTJ to sit in coalition with both Labor and Yesh Atid (also unlikely?).
I would be curious to hear your thoughts – or those of others – on this sort of scenario. And what might Rivlin’s process be as he decides who gets to form the coalition?
See my comment on the January 1 poll. I think both Rivlin, Kahlon and perhaps liberman would welcome forcing Bibi into a labor led national unity government. Also don’t rule out a minority government with Arab party support from outside perhaps in exchange for a committee chairmanship.
Left wing fantasy
I’ll put up a post on how the President chooses the PM.
Many people are writing analysis on the issue and they are ignoring what the law says on this.
I’ve responded in the past that the pairings of Yisrael Beitenu-Meretz and Yesh Atid-Haredim are possible, yet not very likely. At this point their party leaders are publicly denying that such a thing would be possible.