Midgam conducted a poll of 500 people with a 4.5% margin of error that was broadcast by Channel 2 on Dec 29 2014. The poll was conducted before the leaked Rav Ovadia tapes.
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
24 [21] Labor-Livni
24 [18] Likud
16 [11] Bayit Yehudi
11 [11] *United Arab List
10 [–] Koolanu (Kahlon)
09 [19] Yesh Atid
08 [13] Yisrael Beitenu
07 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
06 [10] Shas
05 [06] Meretz
00 [02] Ha’am Itanu (Yishai/Chetboun) – has 3 seats but under 3.25% threshold.
00 [02] Kadima
71 [61] Right-Religious-Kahlon (Parties that have not ruled out a BB coalition)
49 [59] Center-Left-Arab (Parties that have ruled out a BB coalition)
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Essentially all polls before those tapes are now meaningless. Do you think there will be a big shift and to who?
It may impact in the next few polls, but I would still bet on a Shas recovery. Fortunately for Shas there is 2 and half months to go. Either Deri will get the endorsement of Sephardi Rabbis and stage a we are victims campaign or Attais will lead as a new clean broom. Either will likely work. Shas isn’t just a political party, there are education, welfare and charitable institutions behind the scene to draw goodwill from.
I am sad really for Yishai, I had high hopes that with Ariel and Chetboun they would make a good showing, but I fear that this tape and no Ariel will down him. He will get the blame and I cannot see any Sephardi Rabbi running to support him. Trust me, it will count against him big time when the campaign starts properly
There are other people joining Yishai’s list soon that will draw in other support. I believe they will cross at the end.