Dialog conducted a poll of 505 people with a 4.2% margin of error that was published by Haaretz on Dec 17 2014. The poll was conducted on Dec 16. Additionally, Dialog conducted a scenario poll with Yesh Atid & Kahlon on a joint ticket. This is the 5th of the last 6 polls conducted where the joint Labor-Livni ticket does not receive more than Likud. In the scenario poll, Kahlon running with Lapid in the Center-Left-Arab bloc reaches 60.
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
21 [21] Labor-Livni
21 [18] Likud
16 [11] Bayit Yehudi
12 [–] Koolanu (Kahlon)
11 [19] Yesh Atid
08 [13] Yisrael Beitenu
08 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
06 [06] Meretz
05 [04] Hadash
05 [04] Ra’am-Ta’al
04 [10] Shas
03 [02] Maran (Yishai)
00 [03] Balad
00 [02] Kadima
72 [61] Right-Religious (Possible BB coalition)
48 [59] Center-Left-Arab (Anti-BB coalition)
*Note Electoral threshold is 3.25% (4 seats)
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
24 [19] Yesh Atid & Koolanu (Kahlon)
21 [18] Likud
20 [21] Labor-Livni
16 [11] Bayit Yehudi
09 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
08 [13] Yisrael Beitenu
06 [06] Meretz
05 [04] Hadash
05 [04] Ra’am-Ta’al
03 [10] Shas
03 [02] Maran (Yishai)
00 [03] Balad
00 [02] Kadima
60 [61] Right-Religious-without Kahlon
60 [59] Center-Left-Arab-Kahlon
*Note Electoral threshold is 3.25% (4 seats)
Jeremy's Knesset Insider 
Since the electoral threshold is 4 seats, the 3 seats of Yishay’s party in the first poll, and the 3 seats of Shas & Yishay in the second, scenario poll, will be divided between the parties, and then it will change the political map shown in the poll. Because the 3 seats of Yishay’s right-wing party will be divided according to the Bader-Ofer law, and the large parties will benefit. This means that the parties that signed surplus-vote agreements, Labor-Livni/Meretz, Likud/Bayit Yehudi & Kachlon/Israel Beitenu, will probably gain 1 seat each. This can change the political map and probably the next coalition. Also, if Yishay’s 3 seats weren’t count in the first place, maybe the Labor-Livni bloc was bigger than Likud.
I dont think you should group the arabs with the center (here valid and kahlon) Even lapid excluded an alliance with them…
It is about the anti-BB coalition, obviously they wouldn’t enter coalition. Rabin enjoyed a minority government with a security net of Arab MKs in the opposition preventing his ouster.
The chareidim can also join an anti-BB coalition or support one from the outside.
Yishai already announced he will only support Netanyahu for PM because the Haredi public is right-wing.
Some analysts feel that is putting the pressure on Deri to also choose before election.
The contrast in scenarios seems rather silly. The first scenario is Right-Religious vs Centre-Left-Arab and the second is Right-Religious-without Kahlon vs Center-Left-Arab-Kahlon. Why does Kahlon have to run with Yesh Atid to join an anti-BB coalition?
I’ll answer this one again…
Scenario polls are played up too much.
Right now Kahlon is not disqualifying BB, but Lapid is.
That is why Lapid is in the “Anti-BB coalition” & Kahlon is not.
A Lapid-Kahlon party would mean that Kahlon is joining the Anti-BB coalition.
You and everybody else “always” wondering this or that about poll-settings, try to understand that there are so many scenario polls done based on more or less crazy rumors. Like there will most likely not be a Likud-BY list, there will likely not be a YA-Kulanu / YA-YB / Kulanu-YB / YA-YB-Kulanu list (because for example Kahlon wants to start fresh and would have a hard time defending joinin together with impopular guys like Lapid, both Lapid and Lieberman are the “I will be PM”-kind of guys, etc.).
Another rumor is that Tekuma would leave Bayit Yehudi and join Yishai and/or Ozma Yehudit. I guess it will become clear these days, but my bet is that Tekuma will stay in BY as Yishai’s party does not accept female candidates on “its” list (read: would probably be applied to joint lists) and therefore that will lead nowhere. Second reason is that as I assume that Ariel still wants to join a “nationalist” government, he will not be able to do that if he joins Ben-Ari & Co. as for them no nationalist government is “pure enough”. (this would also be the reason for Yishai not joining Ben-Ari & Co.). Third reason is that as Ariel wants to “better” represent the settlement movement and religious zionists he will have a hard time explaining to voters why he left BY when the party at the same time receives new high profile faces, such as Dani Dayan, the other “famous” settler leaders (do not remember their names now), former IDF chief rabbi Avichai Rontzki, and so on. Another possible (likely?) newcomer is Haim Amsalem who left Shas in 2011.
All it really tells us though is that Kahlon has a good chance of holding the balance of power.
Question for you or anyone else though – how plausible would it be for the centre-left-Arab bloc to nominate Kahlon for PM?