Geocartography conducted a poll that was broadcast on Israeli Radio on Dec 16 2014.
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
23 [18] Likud
21 [21] Labor-Livni
16 [11] Bayit Yehudi
11 [–] Koolanu (Kahlon)
10 [13] Yisrael Beitenu
09 [19] Yesh Atid
07 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
07 [06] Meretz
06 [10] Shas
05 [04] Hadash
05 [04] Ra’am-Ta’al
04 [–] Strong Israel
00 [03] Balad
00 [02] Kadima
00 [02] Maran (Yishai)
73 [61] Right-Religious (Possible BB coalition)
47 [59] Center-Left-Arab (Anti-BB coalition)
Jeremy's Knesset Insider 
This appears to add up to 124 seats.
Yishai had better ally with another party or it’s possibly the end for him politically. Even his best poll showing so far is hovering just above the threshold cut-off. However, his party won’t let women run so he won’t be joining with Ariel’s faction anytime soon. This means of course Ariel’s attempt to break away from Bennett is now in shambles. I don’t think Yishai can even sign a “surplus vote” agreement with Bayit Yehudi since BY already made a deal with Likud. Maybe Yishai could join with Otzma to get above the threshold, but will Otzma agree with the stipulation of no women? And does Yishai really want to be associated with Kahane acolytes? His candidacy might just have the effect of wounding Shas.
And Lapid has no surplus vote agreement either and Kahlon has no list…and not much of a platform… And Arab parties have yet to merge and their turnout may or may not increase…and Meretz may be creeping back up… And who knows who Deri wants to punish on May 18th… And will OTZMA siphon off a suprising number of votes because when it comes to the national religious camp these days there may be no such thing as too right wing… It is all too early
Add up to 124. Is the inclusion of Strong Israel a mistake?
I am inclined to believe that irrespective of ones personal views, that Shas will make some sort of a recovery when the campaign starts properly and will not lose as many seats as suggested by current polls.
I also think that Yishai needs to get Ariel on board or he will be border line not withstanding what early polls may suggest.