Panels conducted a poll of 503 people with a 4.5% margin of error that was broadcast on December 30 by Knesset Channel. The poll was first conducted after the leaked Rav Ovadia tapes (Dec 29).
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
24 [21] Labor-Livni
23 [18] Likud
16 [11] Bayit Yehudi
12 [11] *United Arab List
10 [19] Yesh Atid
09 [–] Koolanu (Kahlon)
08 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
08 [06] Meretz
05 [13] Yisrael Beitenu
05 [10] Shas
00 [02] Ha’am Itanu (Yishai/Chetboun) – has 2.5 seats but under 3.25% threshold.
00 [02] Kadima
66 [61] Right-Religious-Kahlon (Parties that have not ruled out a BB coalition)
54 [59] Center-Left-Arab (Parties that have ruled out a BB coalition)
Jeremy's Knesset Insider 
So, implosion of Shas will result in Left Wing government. Be careful what you wish for…
Tracking from the previous Panels poll one might speculate that the swing leftward can be in part contributed to seat distribution as a result of Yishai not making the cut and the resulting boost to Meretz and the Arab parties. Ideolgically we may be seeing last time’s Yesh Atid voters returning to the Center-left and perhaps disgruntled Russians seeking clear secular alternatives. Kahlon should take care in filling his list to appeal both to the secular Russians and edot hamizrach if he is to stay competitive.
So it helped Shas? And finally UTJ went back to 8; a likely result would be some Shas voters returning there.
Of course, we again have the possibility of a lot of votes being throw away; if the Knesset and Press cared about Democracy (as opposed to Democratia), parties or individuals would be allowed to specify second and third choices.
It’s a bit early to really start counting bodies.
If Yishai joined UTJ, they may get all Shas and go to 17 seats. I wonder why Bibi does not come out stronger on his record or at least hammer home the message of a Fakestinians state in Judea and the ISIS style government the left would bring there as the lefts alternative to the status quo.
Everyone right now is pointing fingers at Yishai as the most likely culprit in leaking the video that humiliated Deri and, in the current political situation, possibly cost the entire past constituency of Shas all of their representation in the next Knesset.
My suspicions, however, lean in a different direction: Naftali Bennett. For some time Bennett and his party have been openly trying to snatch up Haredi votes. Forcing the implosion of Shas and leaving its voters without a political home would be one way to rope them into Bayit Yehudi.
I keep reading about this implosion of Shas and its demise is greatly exaggerated.
Of course there is bad press and disunity leaves a bad taste and the tapes. And of course Bennett and Likud would like to pick up its votes. Had the election been in the next week or two I believe Shas would be in trouble.
But the election is 2 1/2 months away. Plenty of time to recover if handled correctly.
Lets look at Yishai, no great show in the polls so far and in Sephardi religious circles rightly or wrongly likely to suffer the backlash from the tapes being leaked. He has exactly 1 Sephardi Rabbi backing him, Rav Mazuz and don’t be surprised if Rav Mazuz ends up on the Shas council. This lack of Sephardi Rabinical support will count heavily against Yishai when electioneering starts seriously.
The suggestion that Yishai join UTJ is fantasy. UTJ is an Ashkanezi Haredi party and its inclusivity is one reason why Shas came into being. It would almost certainly bounce the Sephardi religious vote back to Shas even quicker then I expect it to return.
Many of the polls have been showing Shas at 4/5 seats anyway and I suggest that new polls will not differ. I may be reading this wrong off course and I should state my personal politics are closer to Yishai then Deri, but I have this gut feeling that two things are likely, Deri comes back as the hurt hero and calls the Shas voters back to their home and pulls most of those flirting with Bennett and Likud back (not my preference by the way) or Attias leads the call to return as the new clean broom (my preference).
Either way has a much better chance of suceeding then the doomsday merchants predict.
In either senario I am going to stick my neck out and suggest that Shas will end up with 1 or 2 more seats then UTJ.
Yishai I fear may fall flat at crunch time, not something I want to happen to him.