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Two polls were broadcast/published this weekend following Saar’s intent to resign before the Knesset winter session opens on Oct 27 2014.

Panels poll was broadcast by Channel 2 television:

Of the following list of people who do you prefer to see as Prime Minister?

23% Prime Minister Netanyahu (Likud), 13% Economy Minister Bennett (Bayit Yehudi), 9% Foreign Minister Liberman (Yisrael Beitenu), 9% Opposition Leader Herzog (Labor), 8% Justice Minister Livni (Movement), 6% Former Opposition Leader Yachamovich (Labor), 3% Inteior Minister Saar (Likud), 3% Finance Minister Lapid (Yesh Atid), 2% Defense Minister Yaalon (Likud), 1% Communications Minister Erdan (Likud), 0% Transporation Minister Yisrael Katz (Likud), 0% Education Minister Piron (Yesh Atid).

Dialog poll was published by Haaretz newspaper (498 people, 4.4% margin of error):

Who do you think is most fit to be Prime Minister?

38% Prime Minister Netanyahu (Likud), 7% Opposition Leader Herzog (Labor),  6% Foreign Minister Liberman (Yisrael Beitenu), 5% Economy Minister Bennett (Bayit Yehudi), 5% Former Minister Kachlon, 5% Inteior Minister Saar (Likud), 5% Justice Minister Livni (Movement), 4% Finance Minister Lapid (Yesh Atid).

Additional Questions:

Following Interior Minister Gidon Saar’s announcement that he intends on resigning, does the chance that you will vote Likud: increase, decrease or not change?

80% Not change, 15% Decrease chance I will vote Likud, 3% Don’t know, 2% Increase chance I vote Likud

Are you considering voting for Kachlon’s party?

65% No, 19% Don’t Know, 16% Yes

If Gidon Saar joins a party with Kachlon will you consider voting for the joint party?

58% No, 19% Don’t Know, 23% Yes
Knesset Jeremy Analysis: I have been requested to reveal more of an “insider’s look” into the polls. The difference in the PM question of “prefer” vs “fit” is a great way of how you can ask the same question while receiving different results, in politics we call that manipulating a question. Gidon Saar is resigning, just as Kachlon did, as the most popular Likud minister in the government. According to the Haaretz poll, a joint Saar-Kachlon ticket would increase Kahlon’s chances by 7% in terms of voters who would consider voting that party. Consider voting for vs voting for is another great poll question example of how you can influence a result.

Panels conducted a poll that was broadcast by Knesset Channel on Sept 18 2014.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

25 [19] Likud

20 [12] Bayit Yehudi

16 [15] Labor

12 [19] Yesh Atid

09 [06] Meretz

08 [12] Yisrael Beitenu

08 [11] Shas

08 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

04 [06] Movement

04 [04] Hadash

03 [04] Ra’am-Ta’al

03 [03] Balad

00 [02] Kadima

 

69 [61] Right-Religious

51 [59] Center-Left-Arab

 

Note: This poll was conducted according to the old 2% threshold, instead of the new 3.25% threshold.

Knesset Jeremy Analysis: Interesting poll. Likud is at a 4-month low with 25 seats. Bayit Yehudi captures 20 seats in this poll. I believe this is the first public poll in which Bayit Yehudi has received 20 seats since it was founded in 2008. The poll was conducted yesterday and last night, so there is an impact in terms of Gidon Saar’s announcement of intent to resign before the Knesset opens Oct 27. A poll earlier this week polled Yesh Atid at 8 seats, here they poll higher (12).

Additional Questions:

Who is most fit to be Prime Minister?

24% Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu, 16% Economy Minister Naftali Bennett, 10% Foreign Minister Avigdor Liberman, 10% Opposition Leader Yitzhak Herzog, 8% Justice Minister Tzipi Livni, 4% Finance Minister Yair Lapid, 2% Defense Minister Moshe Ya’alon

Maagar Mochot conducted a poll that was broadcast by Channel 10 on Sept 15 2014.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
26 [19] Likud
16 [12] Bayit Yehudi
14 [12] Yisrael Beitenu
13 [15] Labor
10 [11] Shas
08 [19] Yesh Atid
07 [--] New Kachalon Party
06 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
05 [06] Meretz
05 [06] Movement
10 [11] Hadash, Ra’am-Ta’al & Balad
00 [02] Kadima

79 [61] Right-Religious
41 [59] Center-Left-Arab

Note: This poll was conducted according to the old 2% threshold, instead of the new 3.25% threshold.

Knesset Jeremy Analysis: The three right wing parties in the top three spots with 79 seats for the bloc. We are seeing some polling companies that are showing these type of results (Geocartography being another one), while others such as Panels and Smith are showing the right-religious bloc closer to 70 (instead of 80).

Panels conducted a poll that was broadcast by Knesset Channel on Sept 11 2014.

 

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

29 [19] Likud

18 [12] Bayit Yehudi

15 [15] Labor

11 [19] Yesh Atid

10 [06] Meretz

09 [12] Yisrael Beitenu

08 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

07 [11] Shas

04 [06] Movement

03 [04] Hadash

03 [04] Ra’am-Ta’al

03 [03] Balad

00 [02] Kadima

 

71 [61] Right-Religious

49 [59] Center-Left-Arab

 

Note: This poll was conducted according to the old 2% threshold, instead of the new 3.25% threshold.

Reminder: MK Shama (Likud) resignation has lowered Likud from 20 seats to 19 seats. MK Miller (Yisrael Beitenu) who took the seat raises his party from 11 seats to 12 seats.

 

Additional Questions:

Do you feel that ISIS is a threat?

39% A threat, 31% Serious threat, 26% Not a threat

Do you trust President Obama to lead the fight against ISIS?

70% No, 26% Yes

Do you think President Obama is a strong leader in regards to managing the US foreign affairs?

41% Weak, 36% Very weak, 21% Strong

Do you think the US should cooperate with Iran to resolve the ISIS threat?

44% No, 36% Yes

Will the new Bayit Yehudi Party Constitution strengthen or weaken the party?

48% Don’t know, 29% Weaken, 23% Strengthen

Among Bayit Yehudi voters – 55% Strengthen, 29% Don’t know, 16% Weaken

Should Bayit Yehudi open itself up to new audiences that are not religious Zionist Jews?

60% Yes, 21% No

Among Bayit Yehudi voters – 73% Yes, 18% No

Should Defense Budget be increased?

50% Yes, 40% No

What subject bothers you the most in the Israeli education system?

43% Violence at schools, 17% Quality of teachers, 12% Classroom density

Panels conducted a poll that was broadcast by Knesset Channel on Sept 8 2014.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

28 [19] Likud

19 [12] Bayit Yehudi

15 [15] Labor

10 [19] Yesh Atid

10 [12] Yisrael Beitenu

09 [06] Meretz

08 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

07 [11] Shas

04 [06] Movement

04 [04] Hadash

03 [04] Ra’am-Ta’al

03 [03] Balad

00 [02] Kadima

 

72 [61] Right-Religious

48 [59] Center-Left-Arab

Note: This poll was conducted according to the old 2% threshold, instead of the new 3.25% threshold.

Reminder: MK Shama (Likud) resignation has lowered Likud from 20 seats to 19 seats. MK Miller (Yisrael Beitenu) who took the seat raises his party from 11 seats to 12 seats.

Additional Questions:

Who is most fit to be Prime Minister?

30% Netanyahu, 13% Bennett, 10% Herzog, 8% Liberman, 7% Livni

How do you grade Opposition Leader Herzog?

30% Average, 29% Good, 23% Bad, 18% Don’t know

If the diplomatic process advances should Herzog join government or support government from opposition?

42% Join government, 39% Support from opposition, 19% Don’t know

Will appointing Herzog to a senior position help Israel’s image?

43% No, 30% Don’t know, 27% Yes

Why is Herzog not rising in the polls?

31% All of the above, 29% Not charismatic, 11% Elitist and disconnected, 10% Doesn’t express positions on social/economic issues, 13% Don’t know, 6% diplomatic/security positions.

Does Herzog’s family connection an added value in your eyes?

53% No, 32% Yes, 15% No opinion

Maagar Mochot conducted a poll that was published by NRG on Sept 5 2014.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

28 [19] Likud

16 [12] Bayit Yehudi

15 [12] Yisrael Beitenu

14 [15] Labor

11 [19] Yesh Atid

09 [11] Shas

06 [06] Movement

05 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

05 [06] Meretz

03 [04] Hadash

03 [04] Ra’am-Ta’al

03 [03] Balad

02 [02] Kadima

 

73 [61] Right-Religious

47 [59] Center-Left-Arab

Note: This poll was conducted according to the old 2% threshold, instead of the new 3.25% threshold.

* Reminder: MK Shama (Likud) resignation has lowered Likud from 20 seats to 19 seats. MK Miller (Yisrael Beitenu) who took the seat raises his party from 11 seats to 12 seats.

Maagar Mochot conducted a scenario poll that was published by NRG on Sept 5 2014.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

27 [19] Likud

15 [12] Bayit Yehudi

15 [12] Yisrael Beitenu

12 [15] Labor

10 [11] Shas

08 [19] Yesh Atid

08 [--] New Kahlon Party

06 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

05 [06] Meretz

04 [06] Movement

03 [04] Hadash

03 [04] Ra’am-Ta’al

03 [03] Balad

01 [02] Kadima

 

81 [61] Right-Religious

39 [59] Center-Left-Arab

Panels conducted a poll that was broadcast by Knesset Channel on Sept 4 2014.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

29 [19] Likud

18 [12] Bayit Yehudi

15 [15] Labor

10 [19] Yesh Atid

09 [12] Yisrael Beitenu

09 [06] Meretz

08 [11] Shas

08 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

04 [06] Movement

04 [04] Hadash

03 [04] Ra’am-Ta’al

03 [03] Balad

00 [02] Kadima

 

72 [61] Right-Religious

48 [59] Center-Left-Arab

Note: This poll was conducted according to the old 2% threshold, instead of the new 3.25% threshold.

* Reminder: MK Shama (Likud) resignation has lowered Likud from 20 seats to 19 seats. MK Miller (Yisrael Beitenu) who took the seat raises his party from 11 seats to 12 seats.

Panels conducted a poll that was broadcast by Knesset Channel on Sept 1 2014.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

26 [19] Likud

19 [12] Bayit Yehudi

18 [15] Labor

10 [19] Yesh Atid

10 [06] Meretz

08 [12] Yisrael Beitenu

08 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

07 [11] Shas

04 [06] Movement

04 [04] Hadash

03 [04] Ra’am-Ta’al

03 [03] Balad

00 [02] Kadima

 

68 [61] Right-Religious

52 [59] Center-Left-Arab

Note: This poll was conducted according to the old 2% threshold, instead of the new 3.25% threshold.

* Reminder: MK Shama (Likud) resignation has lowered Likud from 20 seats to 19 seats. MK Miller (Yisrael Beitenu) who took the seat raises his party from 11 seats to 12 seats.

 

Additional Questions:

Which leader best represents the positions of the Israeli right?

39% Bennett, 28% Netanyahu, 20% Liberman, 13% Don’t know

What grade do you give Foreign Minister Avigdor Liberman?

42% Bad, 26% Average, 26% Good, 6% Don’t know

Foreign Minister Liberman is:

51% Damaging for foreign affairs, 22% Good for foreign affairs, 27% Don’t know

Do you believe that Liberman’s ‘word is a word’ (Liberman means what he says)?

46% No, 31% Yes, 23% Don’t know

Where is Liberman on the political map?

50% Right of Likud, 30% Right, 7% Center, 2% Left, 11% Center

What is Liberman’s diplomatic plan?

33% Not give away one inch, 29% Land swap, 19% Don’t know, 11% All of the above, 5% Two states for two people, 4% Return to 1967 lines including Jerusalem

Do you support the Liberman position to topple Hamas?

47% Yes, 39% No, 14% Don’t know

Should Netanyahu fire Liberman if he attacks him again?

47% No, 33% Yes, 20% Don’t know

Question for Yisrael Beitenu voters: Why are you planning on voting for Yisrael Beitenu?

46% Liberman is a strong leader, 46% Agree with his diplomatic policies, 8% Statements towards Israeli Arabs

Knesset Jeremy Analysis: Not good news for Liberman…

Maagar Mochot conducted a poll that was broadcast by Channel 1 on August 29th 2014.

 

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

 

26 [19] Likud

17 [12] Bayit Yehudi

14 [15] Labor

12 [12] Yisrael Beitenu

10 [11] Shas

08 [19] Yesh Atid

08 [--] New Kahlon Party

07 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

06 [06] Meretz

04 [06] Movement

07 [11] Hadash, Ra’am-Ta’al, Balad

01 [02] Kadima

 

80 [61] Right-Religious

40 [59] Center-Left-Arab

 

Note: This poll was conducted according to the old 2% threshold, instead of the new 3.25% threshold. Although Kadima (1 seat) would be under old threshold as well.

 

* MK Shama (Likud) resignation has lowered Likud from 20 seats to 19 seats. MK Miller (Yisrael Beitenu) who took the seat raises his party from 11 seats to 12 seats.

Knesset Jeremy Analysis: I’ll add these results to my previous post & that will be reflected in the analysis there.

Analysts, pundits, experts, commentators, journalists and critics can decide to grade the winners and losers but polling is the best way to take a snapshot at public opinion. Polling is not an exact science, and margins of error are involved, however it is a better indicator than looking into a crystal ball or making predictions from your gut.

Five of the nine premier polling agencies Panels, Dialog, Smith, Geocartography & Maagar Mochot conducted polls mid-week following the end of Operation Protective Edge and this is what they found:

Likud (G-32, S-28, P-27, D&M-26) – Winner

Prime Minister Netanyahu might have performed badly in most ‘additional questions’ sections, but he remains on top in terms of who is most fit to be Prime Minister and Likud remains the largest party. The Geocartography poll of 32 seats is most likely wishful thinking. Likud might be tied for largest party in the current Knesset with 19 seats, but Likud is the largest party by a safe margin in the four realistic sounding polls of 28-26 seats. The public still supports the Prime Minister. His main problem is the Likud membership who is looking at options of replacing the 3-term Prime Minister. Will he survive the infighting?

Bayit Yehudi (P-19, G-18, D&M-17, S-14) – Winner

Economy Minister Naftali Bennett’s Bayit Yehudi Party polled in second place in five of the six polls conducted during Operation Protective Edge. The Smith poll during the operation placed Bayit Yehudi third & Labor second.  He remained in second place in the five polls taken after the operation, although in the latest Smith poll he tied for second place with Labor. As far as polls go, Bennett emerged as the clear winner of this operation. He jumped from being the fourth largest party to second place in the polls. In many polls he also finished second in the question of ‘Who is most fit to be Prime Minister?’ Many pundits doubt a nationalist politician with a yarmulke can maintain the success and polling status as the #2 party. In the meantime the polls keep proving those pundits wrong. Can the freshman MK maintain his success and actually lead his party to achieve second place in the election?

Labor (P-15, D,S&M-14, G-12) – Loser

Opposition Leader Herzog has failed to gain momentum. It is difficult being the leader of the left during a war. Labor is the third largest party with 15 seats, but the Geocartography poll has Labor in fourth place. Although he was statesmanlike during most of the campaign, towards the end he called for elections at the end of the operation. Calling for elections in the middle of a war might go down as one of his major gaffes and could be used by Likud in future campaign videos. Herzog will be Labor’s ‘Prime Ministerial candidate’ for the next elections. For now he can’t improve on Shelly Yachmovich’s 2013 showing of 15 seats which makes him the clear loser of the operation. Will he be able to turn it around?

Yisrael Beitenu (G-17, S&M-12, D-11, P-9) – Loser

Foreign Minister Liberman’s Yisrael Beitenu is polling at third-fifth place. The 17 seats from the Geocartography poll seem a bit too high. The other four polls of 9-12 seats seem more likely. These numbers are not good for Liberman who currently has 12 seats. He won 15 seats in 2009 and 12 seats in 2006. Liberman chose to split off from the joint Likud Beitenu Faction days before the war. This is a losing situation for a veteran right-wing leader who is polling lower than his election results of the last decade during the longest operation in the last 40 years. The other leaders of the right (Netanyahu & Bennett) both enjoyed a bump but Liberman has not found the magic formula. If a right-wing leader doesn’t peak during wartime, when will he peak?

Yesh Atid (P&D-12, S&G-9, M-8) – Loser

Finance Minister Yair Lapid has been in trouble in the polls for a long time. His financial policy has angered most Israelis. His irresponsible quotes during the war did not help him, such as saying the war would not have an impact on the budget and promising not to raise taxes before he knew when the war would end and what the overall cost would be. The Geocartography & Maagar Mochot polls have the freshman Yesh Atid dropping from the second largest party to the sixth largest party. In the Geocartography poll Lapid is behind the UTJ party that he loathes. This is the guy who was polling around 30 seats over a year ago. If he fails to pass his 0% VAT housing reform program, will anyone remember his Charedi draft law?

Shas (M-10, S-9, P-8, D&G-7) – Winner

Before the war it looked like Shas was about to split into two. Rabbi Ovadia Yosef is gone. Aryeh Deri & Eli Yishai infighting was becoming too difficult for either side to hide anymore. Popular #3 Ariel Attias decided to resign from Knesset, rumors started to link Attias to Kahlon. Shas was dropping in the polls and one would expect that in war time most of their voters would move over to Likud. Instead Deri & Yishai stopped fighting publicly and both took a lower profile. With the internal chaos going on before the war, a loss of up to four seats is a win for an opposition party focused on religion & economics during war time. Now that Operation Protective Edge is over, will Operation Split Shas continue?

United Torah Judaism (G-10, D-8, S,P&M-7) – Winner

Israel just went through 50 days of war and UTJ remained steady and that is a win for them. The Geocartography poll showing of 10 seats is wishful thinking. Maintaining their position in the polls of 7-8 seats is impressive considering this a party that prioritizes Torah learning in Yeshiva over serving in the army. Their arch nemesis Lapid chose to threaten Hamas political leaders instead of turning public debate towards a large sector of society that was not putting on army uniforms. Party activists pride themselves that in two polls the Ashkenazi UTJ finished higher than the Sephardi Shas. Can the Lithuanians and Hassidic sects remain united for another election?

Meretz (P-9, D&S-7, G&M-6) – Loser

Remember when Meretz was consistently polling in the double digits two months ago? Well those days are over. The party that is to the left of Labor has lost their momentum and possibly their direction. Many people support Meretz’s domestic politics but find it hard to vote for the party during a time when diplomatic & national defense issues are in the headlines. The MKs did not speak in a single voice and it was not clear to many where the party stood on many issues related to the operation. Meretz won 6 seats in the last election with a 4.55% showing that included 14% of the Tel Aviv vote. Will Meretz be able to repeat double digit numbers in Tel Aviv following the sirens of Protective Edge?

Hadash (D-6, S-5, P&G-4,M-?) – Winner

The future of the smaller parties has been cast in doubt with the raising of the new threshold to 3.25%/4 seats. The ability of Hadash, a joint Arab-Jewish Party to remain above the threshold in all polls makes them a winner. Polling at 5 or 6 seats is highly unusual for the party. It is possible they were able to take away votes from Meretz.

Balad (G-5, D-4, S&P-3,M-?) – Winner

The Balad MKs went to Qatar to meet with former leader MK Bishara who is wanted on charges of treason in Israel for terrorist actions during the Second Lebanon War. They are winners considering they were able to go on the trip, come back and remain MKs, while enjoying a slight bump in the polls. On the other hand, 3 seats will not cut it anymore under the new threshold.

Livni/Movement (S,D,P&M-4, G-0) – Loser

Justice Minister Livni is barely able to pass the threshold in four polls and in the other poll she is not able to. Rumors of her MKs making preparations for the next elections in different parties does not help her either. Few people think this party will make it to the next elections and the public seems to agree.

Ra’am-Ta’al (D4, S&P-3, G-0,M-?) – Loser

Ra’am-Ta’al received more votes than Hadash, Balad and Kadima in Jan 2013. Yet, they fail to pass the threshold in 3 of the 4 polls, and barely escape it in the fourth. Lucky for them there will be attempts to merge with Balad and maybe Hadash.

Kadima 1 seat in Maagar Mochot poll, 0 seats in all other polls – Loser

Remember when Shaul Mofaz was Defense Minister and a member of the Security Cabinet? I’m not sure many do.

Kahlon (Maagar Mochot Poll 8 seats, Smith Poll 5 seats) – Loser

Kahlon is an economic guy. He can’t announce a new party when security and defense issues are at the top of the news.

  • I’d like to see New Wave, Midgam, Teleseker & Dahaf polls to get a clearer picture but five out of nine is not that bad. It is rare to see a majority of the ‘Top 9’ polling agencies poll at the same time in the middle of a term.
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