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Election Scorecard

Filed under: Knesset, Weekly Poll Avg — 3 Comments

November 12, 2022

In the table below I measure the gap between the Knesset Jeremy Average (4 days before election), the exit polls of Channels 11,12,13&14 and the final election results.

Party	Election Results	Knesset Jeremy AVG	Gap
Likud	32	31	1
Yesh Atid	24	25	-1
Religious Zionist	14	14	0
National Unity	12	11	1
Shas	11	9	2
UTJ	7	7	0
Yisrael Beitenu	6	6	0
Raam	5	4	1
Hadash-Taal	5	4	1
Labor	4	5	-1
Meretz	0	4	-4

Party	Election Results	Exit Poll 11	Gap
Likud	32	30	2
Yesh Atid	24	24	0
Religious Zionist	14	14	0
National Unity	12	11	1
Shas	11	10	1
UTJ	7	7	0
Yisrael Beitenu	6	4	2
Raam	5	5	0
Hadash-Taal	5	4	1
Labor	4	6	-2
Meretz	0	5	-5

Party	Election Results	Exit Poll 12	Gap
Likud	32	31	1
Yesh Atid	24	24	0
Religious Zionist	14	14	0
National Unity	12	12	0
Shas	11	10	1
UTJ	7	7	0
Yisrael Beitenu	6	5	1
Raam	5	4	1
Hadash-Taal	5	4	1
Labor	4	5	-1
Meretz	0	4	-4

Party	Election Results	Exit Poll 13	Gap
Likud	32	30	2
Yesh Atid	24	22	2
Religious Zionist	14	15	-1
National Unity	12	13	-1
Shas	11	10	1
UTJ	7	7	0
Yisrael Beitenu	6	5	1
Raam	5	5	0
Hadash-Taal	5	4	1
Labor	4	5	-1
Meretz	0	4	-4

Party	Election Results	Exit Poll 14	Gap
Likud	32	31	1
Yesh Atid	24	23	1
Religious Zionist	14	12	2
National Unity	12	11	1
Shas	11	10	1
UTJ	7	8	-1
Yisrael Beitenu	6	6	0
Raam	5	4	1
Hadash-Taal	5	4	1
Labor	4	6	-2
Meretz	0	5	-5

Comment

Last KnessetJeremy Polling Average: Likud 31.1, Yesh Atid 24.9, Smotrich 14, Gantz 11.3, Shas 8.6, UTJ 6.8

Filed under: Knesset, Weekly Poll Avg — Leave a comment

October 29, 2022

The last average compares three different polling averages. Last week’s average is compared to an average of the 15 polls released during the Monday-Friday period of October 24 – October 28. The most recent average is a 7 poll average consisting of the last seven polls released during the last two days before the polling ban. These represent the last polls conducted by the seven polling companies that have released public polls during this cycle: Maagar Mochot, Direct Polls, Kantar, Panels, Smith, Midgam and Kamil Fuchs.

Let’s take a look at the trends and momentum leading up to Election Day: Likud is dropping from 31.6 to 31.5 to 31.1. Yesh Atid is going up from 24.3 to 24.6 to 24.9. Smotrich is rising 13.4 to 13.6 to 14. Gantz appears to be dropping, as he went from 11.6 to 11.7 to 11.3. Shas’s stock is increasing from 8.1 to 8.5 to 8.6. UTJ is losing steam with 7 to 6.9 to 6.8. Yisrael Beitenu is dropping from 6.3 to 5.7. Labor is growing from 5 to 5.3. Meretz is falling from 4.7 to 4.5 to 4.3. Hadash-Taal & Raam both remain steady at 4. Both Bayit Yehudi & Balad who are under the threshold are making gains as we reach the homestretch.

As for the blocs so Bibi’s bloc has hit 60.5, that rounds up to 61, yet the downward trend of Likud & UTJ makes it very likely that it falls back to 60. Lapid’s bloc with Hadash-Taal hits 59.5, yet if one of the parties falls under the threshold it will become more complicated to block Netanyahu’s bloc. Lapid’s bloc without Hadash-Taal of 55.5 is far short from being able to form a coalition.

Party	Seats	7-Poll Avg	15 Poll AVG	Last Week
Likud	31	31.1	31.5	31.6
Yesh Atid	25	24.9	24.6	24.3
Religious Zionist	14	14	13.6	13.4
National Unity	11	11.3	11.7	11.6
Shas	9	8.6	8.5	8.1
UTJ	7	6.8	6.9	7
Yisrael Beitenu	6	5.7	5.7	6.3
Labor	5	5.3	5	5
Meretz	4	4.3	4.5	4.7
Hadash-Taal	4	4	4	4
Raam	4	4	4	4

Party	Seats	7-Poll Avg	15 Poll AVG	Last Week
Bayit Yehudi	2.3	1.9	1.9	1.8
Balad	2.3	1.9	1.9	1.7
Zalika Party	1.1	0.9	0.9	1.1
Kara Party	0.8	0.7	0.7	0.5
Burning Youth	0.7	0.6	0.6	0.4

Party	Seats	7-Poll Avg	15 Poll AVG	Last Week
Netanyahu Bloc	61	60.5	60.5	60.1
Lapid w/H-T	54	55.5	55.5	59.9
Lapid w/o H-T	59	59.5	59.5	55.9

Comment

The Last 4 Polls

Filed under: Knesset, Polls — 1 Comment

Below are the last four polls that were released yesterday, before the deadline for publishing or broadcasting polls.

The next post will compare a 7-Poll Average from the polls released during the last two days of polling to a 15-Poll Average of the polls released throughout the week to last week’s average.

Poll 1: Panels conducted a poll with a 3.1% margin of error that was published by Maariv on October 28 2022.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

31 [29] Likud (Netanyahu)

25 [17] Yesh Atid (Lapid)

14 [07] Religious Zionist (Smotrich)

12 [16] National Unity (Gantz)

09 [09] Shas (Deri)

06 [07] United Torah Judaism (Gafni)

06 [07] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)

05 [07] Labor (Michaeli)

04 [06] Meretz (Galon)

04 [05] Hadash-Taal (Odeh)

04 [04] Ra’am (Abbas)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

2.1% [04] Bayit Yehudi (Shaked)

1.8% [01] Balad (Abu Shachada)

1.2% [–] New Economy (Zalika)

0.7% [01] Free Economy (Kara)

0.3% [–] Burning Youth (Muchtar)

Poll 2: Smith conducted a poll that was broadcast by Galai Yisrael Radio on October 28 2022.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

31 [29] Likud (Netanyahu)

25 [17] Yesh Atid (Lapid)

14 [07] Religious Zionist (Smotrich)

11 [16] National Unity (Gantz)

09 [09] Shas (Deri)

07 [07] United Torah Judaism (Gafni)

06 [07] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)

05 [07] Labor (Michaeli)

04 [06] Meretz (Galon)

04 [05] Hadash-Taal (Odeh)

04 [04] Ra’am (Abbas)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

2.1% [01] Balad (Abu Shachada)

2% [04] Bayit Yehudi (Shaked)

1% [01] Free Economy (Kara)

0.9% [–] New Economy (Zalika)

0.4% [–] Burning Youth (Muchtar)

Poll 3: Midgam conducted a poll of 1007 with a 3.1% margin of error that was broadcast by Channel 12 on October 28 2022.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

31 [29] Likud (Netanyahu)

25 [17] Yesh Atid (Lapid)

14 [07] Religious Zionist (Smotrich)

11 [16] National Unity (Gantz)

08 [09] Shas (Deri)

07 [07] United Torah Judaism (Gafni)

06 [07] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)

05 [07] Labor (Michaeli)

05 [06] Meretz (Galon)

04 [05] Hadash-Taal (Odeh)

04 [04] Ra’am (Abbas)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

1.6% [01] Balad (Abu Shachada)

1.5% [04] Bayit Yehudi (Shaked)

0.9% [–] New Economy (Zalika)

0.6% [01] Free Economy (Kara)

0.6% [–] Burning Youth (Muchtar)

0.6% [–] Green Leaf

0.4% [–] Eli Avidar Party

Poll 4: Kamil Fuchs conducted a poll of 801 with a 3.5% margin of error that was broadcast by Channel 13 on October 28 2022.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

30 [29] Likud (Netanyahu)

27 [17] Yesh Atid (Lapid)

15 [07] Religious Zionist (Smotrich)

10 [16] National Unity (Gantz)

08 [09] Shas (Deri)

07 [07] United Torah Judaism (Gafni)

06 [07] Labor (Michaeli)

05 [07] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)

04 [06] Meretz (Galon)

04 [05] Hadash-Taal (Odeh)

04 [04] Ra’am (Abbas)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

2.75% [01] Balad (Abu Shachada)

2% [04] Bayit Yehudi (Shaked)

0.9% [–] 30/40 (Weinstein)

0.7% [–] Burning Youth (Muchtar)

0.4% [01] Free Economy (Kara)

0.2% [–] New Economy (Zalika)

Comment

11 Polls from Monday-Thursday

Filed under: Knesset, Polls — 2 Comments

October 28, 2022

Polls must be published or broadcast by midnight Israeli time between Friday and Saturday.

I will publish the last polls and polling average on Saturday evening.

Below are the 11 polls that were published or broadcast over the last four days from Monday October 24 – Thursday October 27.

Poll 1: Kantar conducted a poll of 752 people with a 3.6% margin of error that was broadcast by Channel 11 on October 24 2022.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

31 [29] Likud (Netanyahu)

24 [17] Yesh Atid (Lapid)

13 [07] Religious Zionist (Smotrich)

12 [16] National Unity (Gantz)

09 [09] Shas (Deri)

07 [07] United Torah Judaism (Gafni)

06 [07] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)

05 [07] Labor (Michaeli)

05 [06] Meretz (Galon)

04 [05] Hadash-Taal (Odeh)

04 [04] Ra’am (Abbas)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

1.8% [01] Balad (Abu Shachada)

1.6% [04] Bayit Yehudi (Shaked)

1.5% [–] New Economy (Zalika)

1.2% [–] Burning Youth (Muchtar)

0.7% [01] Free Economy (Kara)

0.7% [–] Eli Avidar Party

0.2% [–] Green Leaf

0.2% [–] Tzomet

Poll 2: Panels conducted a poll that was published by Maariv on October 24 2022.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

32 [29] Likud (Netanyahu)

24 [17] Yesh Atid (Lapid)

14 [07] Religious Zionist (Smotrich)

12 [16] National Unity (Gantz)

08 [09] Shas (Deri)

07 [07] United Torah Judaism (Gafni)

06 [07] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)

05 [07] Labor (Michaeli)

05 [06] Meretz (Galon)

04 [05] Hadash-Taal (Odeh)

04 [04] Ra’am (Abbas)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

1.7% [01] Balad (Abu Shachada)

1.6% [04] Bayit Yehudi (Shaked)

0.7% [–] New Economy (Zalika)

0.6% [01] Free Economy (Kara)

0.1% [–] Burning Youth (Muchtar)

0.1% [–] Tzomet

Poll 3: Direct Polls conducted a poll of 1084 people with a 4.2% margin of error that was broadcast by Channel 14 on October 24 2022.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

34 [29] Likud (Netanyahu)

23 [17] Yesh Atid (Lapid)

12 [07] Religious Zionist (Smotrich)

12 [16] National Unity (Gantz)

09 [09] Shas (Deri)

07 [07] United Torah Judaism (Gafni)

06 [07] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)

05 [07] Labor (Michaeli)

04 [06] Meretz (Galon)

04 [05] Hadash-Taal (Odeh)

04 [04] Ra’am (Abbas)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

2% [01] Balad (Abu Shachada)

1.9% [04] Bayit Yehudi (Shaked)

0.4% [01] Free Economy (Kara)

0.2% [–] New Economy (Zalika)

0.2% [–] Burning Youth (Muchtar)

Poll 4: Midgam conducted a poll of 503 people with a 4.4% margin of error that was broadcast by Channel 12 on October 24 2022.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

32 [29] Likud (Netanyahu)

24 [17] Yesh Atid (Lapid)

13 [07] Religious Zionist (Smotrich)

13 [16] National Unity (Gantz)

08 [09] Shas (Deri)

07 [07] United Torah Judaism (Gafni)

05 [07] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)

05 [07] Labor (Michaeli)

05 [06] Meretz (Galon)

04 [05] Hadash-Taal (Odeh)

04 [04] Ra’am (Abbas)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

2% [01] Balad (Abu Shachada)

1.8% [04] Bayit Yehudi (Shaked)

1.4% [–] Eli Avidar Party

0.6% [–] Burning Youth (Muchtar)

0.4% [–] New Economy (Zalika)

0.4% [01] Free Economy (Kara)

0.2% [–] Green Leaf

0.1% [–] Tzomet

Poll 5: Panels conducted a poll of 709 people with a 3.7% margin of error that was broadcast by the Knesset Channel 99 on October 25 2022.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

31 [29] Likud (Netanyahu)

24 [17] Yesh Atid (Lapid)

14 [07] Religious Zionist (Smotrich)

12 [16] National Unity (Gantz)

08 [09] Shas (Deri)

07 [07] United Torah Judaism (Gafni)

06 [07] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)

05 [07] Labor (Michaeli)

05 [06] Meretz (Galon)

04 [05] Hadash-Taal (Odeh)

04 [04] Ra’am (Abbas)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

2.1% [01] Balad (Abu Shachada)

1.8% [04] Bayit Yehudi (Shaked)

1.0% [–] New Economy (Zalika)

Poll 6: Kamil Fuchs conducted a poll of 801 people with a 3.5% margin of error that was broadcast by Channel 13 on October 25 2022.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

31 [29] Likud (Netanyahu)

27 [17] Yesh Atid (Lapid)

14 [07] Religious Zionist (Smotrich)

11 [16] National Unity (Gantz)

08 [09] Shas (Deri)

07 [07] United Torah Judaism (Gafni)

06 [07] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)

04 [07] Labor (Michaeli)

04 [06] Meretz (Galon)

04 [05] Hadash-Taal (Odeh)

04 [04] Ra’am (Abbas)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

2.3% [01] Balad (Abu Shachada)

2.2% [04] Bayit Yehudi (Shaked)

1.4% [–] New Economy (Zalika)

1.3% [01] Free Economy (Kara)

1% [–] Burning Youth (Muchtar)

Poll 7: Midgam conducted a poll of 505 people with a 4.4% margin of error that was broadcast by Army Radio on October 26 2022.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

31 [29] Likud (Netanyahu)

25 [17] Yesh Atid (Lapid)

13 [07] Religious Zionist (Smotrich)

12 [16] National Unity (Gantz)

08 [09] Shas (Deri)

07 [07] United Torah Judaism (Gafni)

06 [07] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)

05 [07] Labor (Michaeli)

05 [06] Meretz (Galon)

04 [05] Hadash-Taal (Odeh)

04 [04] Ra’am (Abbas)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

1.8% [04] Bayit Yehudi (Shaked)

1.4% [01] Balad (Abu Shachada)

1.3% [–] New Economy (Zalika)

Poll 8: Smith conducted a poll of 700 people with a 3.8% margin of error that was broadcast by Galai Yisrael Radio on October 26 2022.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

32 [29] Likud (Netanyahu)

25 [17] Yesh Atid (Lapid)

13 [07] Religious Zionist (Smotrich)

12 [16] National Unity (Gantz)

09 [09] Shas (Deri)

07 [07] United Torah Judaism (Gafni)

05 [07] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)

05 [07] Labor (Michaeli)

04 [06] Meretz (Galon)

04 [05] Hadash-Taal (Odeh)

04 [04] Ra’am (Abbas)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

1.8% [04] Bayit Yehudi (Shaked)

1.5% [–] New Economy (Zalika)

1.2% [01] Free Economy (Kara)

0.7% [–] Burning Youth (Muchtar)

Poll 9: Maagar Mochot conducted a poll of 1201 people with a 2.7% margin of error that was published by Yisrael Hayom on October 27 2022.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

30 [29] Likud (Netanyahu)

25 [17] Yesh Atid (Lapid)

15 [07] Religious Zionist (Smotrich)

11 [16] National Unity (Gantz)

09 [09] Shas (Deri)

07 [07] United Torah Judaism (Gafni)

06 [07] Labor (Michaeli)

05 [07] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)

04 [06] Meretz (Galon)

04 [05] Hadash-Taal (Odeh)

04 [04] Ra’am (Abbas)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

1.2% [04] Bayit Yehudi (Shaked)

1 % [01] Balad (Abu Shachada)

Poll 10: Direct Polls conducted a poll of 2385 people with a 1.8% margin of error that was broadcast by Channel 14 on October 27 2022.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

34 [29] Likud (Netanyahu)

23 [17] Yesh Atid (Lapid)

13 [16] National Unity (Gantz)

12 [07] Religious Zionist (Smotrich)

09 [09] Shas (Deri)

07 [07] United Torah Judaism (Gafni)

06 [07] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)

04 [07] Labor (Michaeli)

04 [06] Meretz (Galon)

04 [05] Hadash-Taal (Odeh)

04 [04] Ra’am (Abbas)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

2.1% [01] Balad (Abu Shachada)

1.9% [04] Bayit Yehudi (Shaked)

0.6% [01] Free Economy (Kara)

0.5% [–] New Economy (Zalika)

0.5% [–] Burning Youth (Muchtar)

0.1% [–] Eli Avidar Party

Poll 11: Kantar conducted a poll of 1301 people with a 2.7% margin of error that was broadcast by Channel 11 on October 27 2022.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

31 [29] Likud (Netanyahu)

24 [17] Yesh Atid (Lapid)

14 [07] Religious Zionist (Smotrich)

11 [16] National Unity (Gantz)

08 [09] Shas (Deri)

07 [07] United Torah Judaism (Gafni)

06 [07] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)

06 [07] Labor (Michaeli)

05 [06] Meretz (Galon)

04 [05] Hadash-Taal (Odeh)

04 [04] Ra’am (Abbas)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

2.2% [01] Balad (Abu Shachada)

2% [04] Bayit Yehudi (Shaked)

1.4% [–] New Economy (Zalika)

1.3% [–] Burning Youth (Muchtar)

0.9% [01] Free Economy (Kara)

0.5% [–] Eli Avidar Party

0.1% [–] Green Leaf

0% [–] Tzomet

Comment

9 Days to Election – KnessetJeremy Polling Average: Likud 31.6, Yesh Atid 24.3, Smotrich 13.4, Gantz 11.6, Shas 8.1, UTJ 7; Blocs Deadlocked

Filed under: Knesset, Weekly Poll Avg — 2 Comments

October 23, 2022

Smotrich made the most significant gain with a 0.6 jump. Liberman’s Yisrael Beitenu went up for the second straight week, this time by 0.3.

Likud dropped for the second consecutive week, this time by 0.5. Gantz also went down this week, this time by 0.3. Lapid’s Yesh Atid also lost 0.1.

Overall, we remain stuck at a 60-60 deadlock between the two blocs.

This week will be the last week that polls can be conducted and released. The polling blackout begins midnight between Friday and Saturday.

Party	Seats	This Week	Last Week	Gap
Likud	32	31.6	32.1	-0.5
Yesh Atid	24	24.3	24.4	-0.1
Religious Zionist	13	13.4	12.8	0.6
National Unity	12	11.6	11.9	-0.3
Shas	8	8.1	8.1	0
UTJ	7	7	7	0
Yisrael Beitenu	6	6.3	6	0.3
Labor	5	5	5	0
Meretz	5	4.7	4.7	0
Hadash-Taal	4	4	4	0
Raam	4	4	4	0

Party	Seats	This Week	Last Week	Gap
Bayit Yehudi	2.2	1.8	2.3	-0.5
Balad	2	1.7	1.4	0.3
Zalika Party	1.3	1.1	1	0.1
Kara Party	0.6	0.5	0.7	-0.2
Burning Youth	0.5	0.4	0.5	-0.1

Party	Seats	This Week	Last Week	Gap
Netanyahu Bloc	60	60.1	60	0.1
Lapid w/H-T	60	59.9	60	-0.1
Lapid w/o H-T	56	55.9	56	-0.1

Comment

7 Polls – 2 Weeks Out

Filed under: Knesset, Polls — Leave a comment

Kantar conducted a poll of 651 people with a 3.8% margin of error that was broadcast by Channel 11 on October 18 2022.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

31 [29] Likud (Netanyahu)

25 [17] Yesh Atid (Lapid)

14 [07] Religious Zionist (Smotrich)

11 [16] National Unity (Gantz)

08 [09] Shas (Deri)

07 [07] United Torah Judaism (Gafni)

07 [07] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)

05 [07] Labor (Michaeli)

04 [06] Meretz (Galon)

04 [05] Hadash-Taal (Odeh)

04 [04] Ra’am (Abbas)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

2% [01] Balad (Abu Shachada)

1.9% [04] Bayit Yehudi (Shaked)

1.8% [–] New Economy (Zalika)

The rest under 0.5%

Midgam conducted a poll of 510 people with a 4.4% margin of error that was broadcast by Channel 12 on October 18 2022.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

30 [29] Likud (Netanyahu)

25 [17] Yesh Atid (Lapid)

14 [07] Religious Zionist (Smotrich)

12 [16] National Unity (Gantz)

08 [09] Shas (Deri)

07 [07] United Torah Judaism (Gafni)

06 [07] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)

05 [07] Labor (Michaeli)

05 [06] Meretz (Galon)

04 [05] Hadash-Taal (Odeh)

04 [04] Ra’am (Abbas)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

1.7% [04] Bayit Yehudi (Shaked)

1.2% [01] Balad (Abu Shachada)

1.2% [–] New Economy (Zalika)

0.5% [01] Free Economy (Kara)

0.1% [–] Burning Youth (Muchtar)

0% [–] 30/40 (Weinstein)

0% [–] Green Leaf

Panels conducted a poll of 712 people with a 3.7% margin of error that was broadcast by the Knesset Channel 99 on October 19 2022.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

32 [29] Likud (Netanyahu)

24 [17] Yesh Atid (Lapid)

13 [07] Religious Zionist (Smotrich)

11 [16] National Unity (Gantz)

08 [09] Shas (Deri)

07 [07] United Torah Judaism (Gafni)

07 [07] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)

05 [07] Labor (Michaeli)

05 [06] Meretz (Galon)

04 [05] Hadash-Taal (Odeh)

04 [04] Ra’am (Abbas)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

1.9% [04] Bayit Yehudi (Shaked)

1.5% [–] New Economy (Zalika)

1.4% [01] Balad (Abu Shachada)

Others under 0.5%

Midgam conducted a poll of 507 people with a 4.4% margin of error that was broadcast by the Channel 12 on October 20 2022.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

31 [29] Likud (Netanyahu)

24 [17] Yesh Atid (Lapid)

14 [07] Religious Zionist (Smotrich)

11 [16] National Unity (Gantz)

08 [09] Shas (Deri)

07 [07] United Torah Judaism (Gafni)

06 [07] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)

06 [07] Labor (Michaeli)

05 [06] Meretz (Galon)

04 [05] Hadash-Taal (Odeh)

04 [04] Ra’am (Abbas)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

1.9% [04] Bayit Yehudi (Shaked)

1.3% [01] Balad (Abu Shachada)

0.5% [–] Burning Youth (Muchtar)

0.3% [–] New Economy (Zalika)

0.3% [01] Free Economy (Kara)

0.2% [–] 30/40 (Weinstein)

0% [–] Eli Avidar Party

0% [–] Green Leaf

Direct Polls conducted a poll of 847 people with a 4.2% margin of error that was broadcast by the Channel 14 on October 20 2022.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

34 [29] Likud (Netanyahu)

23 [17] Yesh Atid (Lapid)

13 [16] National Unity (Gantz)

12 [07] Religious Zionist (Smotrich)

09 [09] Shas (Deri)

07 [07] United Torah Judaism (Gafni)

06 [07] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)

04 [07] Labor (Michaeli)

04 [06] Meretz (Galon)

04 [05] Hadash-Taal (Odeh)

04 [04] Ra’am (Abbas)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

2.1% [01] Balad (Abu Shachada)

1.9% [04] Bayit Yehudi (Shaked)

0.7% [–] New Economy (Zalika)

0.5% [–] Burning Youth (Muchtar)

0.4% [01] Free Economy (Kara)

Kamil Fuchs conducted a poll of 801 people with a 3.5% margin of error that was broadcast by the Channel 13 on October 20 2022.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

32 [29] Likud (Netanyahu)

26 [17] Yesh Atid (Lapid)

13 [07] Religious Zionist (Smotrich)

11 [16] National Unity (Gantz)

08 [09] Shas (Deri)

07 [07] United Torah Judaism (Gafni)

05 [07] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)

05 [07] Labor (Michaeli)

05 [06] Meretz (Galon)

04 [05] Hadash-Taal (Odeh)

04 [04] Ra’am (Abbas)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

1.8% [04] Bayit Yehudi (Shaked)

1.4% [01] Balad (Abu Shachada)

1.4% [01] Free Economy (Kara)

1.1% [–] New Economy (Zalika)

Panels conducted a poll of 712 people with a 3.7% margin of error that was published by Maariv on October 21 2022.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

31 [29] Likud (Netanyahu)

23 [17] Yesh Atid (Lapid)

14 [07] Religious Zionist (Smotrich)

12 [16] National Unity (Gantz)

08 [09] Shas (Deri)

07 [07] United Torah Judaism (Gafni)

07 [07] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)

05 [07] Labor (Michaeli)

05 [06] Meretz (Galon)

04 [05] Hadash-Taal (Odeh)

04 [04] Ra’am (Abbas)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

1.8% [04] Bayit Yehudi (Shaked)

1.7% [01] Balad (Abu Shachada)

1.1% [–] New Economy (Zalika)

0.5% [01] Free Economy (Kara)

0.4% [–] Burning Youth (Muchtar)

Comment

18 Days to Election – KnessetJeremy Poll Average: Likud 32.1, Yesh Atid 24.4, Smotrich 12.8, Gantz 11.9, Shas 8.1, UTJ 7; Netanyahu at 60

Filed under: Knesset, Weekly Poll Avg — 1 Comment

October 14, 2022

Yesh Atid makes largest gain of 0.9 and Likud takes biggest drop of 0.7 – narrowing the gap between the two bloc leaders to 7.7 seats.

Inside the Netanyahu camp, in addition to the Likud’s drop, Shas dropped slightly with a 0.1 loss. The Anti-Netanyahu Bloc continued to see fluctuation as Gantz made gains of 0.7 & Liberman went up 0.2. Both Labor & Meretz dropped 0.5 each. Another interesting development is that all of the major parties currently polling under the threshold went up slightly – Shaked, Balad, Zalika, Kara & Muchtar.

Netanyahu’s bloc stands at 60. Lapid’s bloc is at 60 with Hadash-Taal and 56 without them.

Party	Seats	This Week	Last Week	Gap
Likud	32	32.1	32.8	-0.7
Yesh Atid	24	24.4	23.5	0.9
Religious Zionist	13	12.8	12.8	0
National Unity	12	11.9	11.2	0.7
Shas	8	8.1	8.2	-0.1
UTJ	7	7	7	0
Yisrael Beitenu	6	6	5.8	0.2
Labor	5	5	5.5	-0.5
Meretz	5	4.7	5.2	-0.5
Hadash-Taal	4	4	4	0
Raam	4	4	4	0

Party	Seats	This Week	Last Week	Gap
Bayit Yehudi	2.8	2.3	2.2	0.1
Balad	1.7	1.4	1.1	0.3
Zalika Party	1.2	1	0.7	0.3
Kara Party	0.8	0.7	0.6	0.1
Burning Youth	0.6	0.5	0.4	0.1

Party	Seats	This Week	Last Week	Gap
Netanyahu Bloc	60	60	60.8	-0.8
Lapid w/H-T	60	60	59.2	0.8
Lapid w/o H-T	56	56	55.2	0.8

Comment

7 Polls from this week

Filed under: Knesset, Polls — Leave a comment

Midgam conducted a poll of 500 people with a 4.4% margin of error that was broadcast by Channel 12 on October 11 2022.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

31 [29] Likud (Netanyahu)

24 [17] Yesh Atid (Lapid)

13 [07] Religious Zionist (Smotrich)

12 [16] National Unity (Gantz)

08 [09] Shas (Deri)

07 [07] United Torah Judaism (Gafni)

06 [07] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)

06 [07] Labor (Michaeli)

05 [06] Meretz (Galon)

04 [05] Hadash-Taal (Odeh)

04 [04] Ra’am (Abbas)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

2% [04] Bayit Yehudi (Shaked)

1.6% [01] Balad (Abu Shachada)

1.6% [–] New Economy (Zalika)

1.2% [–] Burning Youth (Muchtar)

1% [01] Free Economy (Kara)

Kantar conducted a poll of 649 people with a 3.8% margin of error that was broadcast by Channel 11 on October 11 2022.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

32 [29] Likud (Netanyahu)

24 [17] Yesh Atid (Lapid)

13 [07] Religious Zionist (Smotrich)

12 [16] National Unity (Gantz)

08 [09] Shas (Deri)

07 [07] United Torah Judaism (Gafni)

06 [07] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)

05 [07] Labor (Michaeli)

05 [06] Meretz (Galon)

04 [05] Hadash-Taal (Odeh)

04 [04] Ra’am (Abbas)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

1.6% [04] Bayit Yehudi (Shaked)

1.4% [01] Balad (Abu Shachada)

1.4% [–] New Economy (Zalika)

Everything else under 0.5%

Panels conducted a poll of 700 people with a 3.7% margin of error that was broadcast by Radio 103 FM on October 12 2022.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

32 [29] Likud (Netanyahu)

25 [17] Yesh Atid (Lapid)

13 [07] Religious Zionist (Smotrich)

11 [16] National Unity (Gantz)

08 [09] Shas (Deri)

07 [07] United Torah Judaism (Gafni)

06 [07] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)

05 [07] Labor (Michaeli)

05 [06] Meretz (Galon)

04 [05] Hadash-Taal (Odeh)

04 [04] Ra’am (Abbas)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

2.6% [04] Bayit Yehudi (Shaked)

1.6% [01] Free Economy (Kara)

1.2% [01] Balad (Abu Shachada)

0.5% [–] New Economy (Zalika)

0.4% [–] Burning Youth (Muchtar)

0.2% [–] Democracy & Freedom (Avidar)

Panels conducted a poll of 712 people with a 3.7% margin of error that was broadcast by Knesset Channel 99 on October 12 2022.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

32 [29] Likud (Netanyahu)

25 [17] Yesh Atid (Lapid)

13 [07] Religious Zionist (Smotrich)

12 [16] National Unity (Gantz)

08 [09] Shas (Deri)

07 [07] United Torah Judaism (Gafni)

06 [07] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)

05 [06] Meretz (Galon)

04 [07] Labor (Michaeli)

04 [05] Hadash-Taal (Odeh)

04 [04] Ra’am (Abbas)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

2.4% [04] Bayit Yehudi (Shaked)

0.7% [01] Free Economy (Kara)

0.7% [01] Balad (Abu Shachada)

0.7% [–] New Economy (Zalika)

0.2% [–] Burning Youth (Muchtar)

0.2% [–] Democracy & Freedom (Avidar)

Direct Polls conducted a poll of 537 people with a 4.5% margin of error that was broadcast by Channel 14 on October 13 2022.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

34 [29] Likud (Netanyahu)

23 [17] Yesh Atid (Lapid)

12 [07] Religious Zionist (Smotrich)

12 [16] National Unity (Gantz)

09 [09] Shas (Deri)

07 [07] United Torah Judaism (Gafni)

07 [07] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)

04 [07] Labor (Michaeli)

04 [06] Meretz (Galon)

04 [05] Hadash-Taal (Odeh)

04 [04] Ra’am (Abbas)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

2.1% [04] Bayit Yehudi (Shaked)

1.8% [01] Balad (Abu Shachada)

0.5% [01] Free Economy (Kara)

0.72% [–] New Economy (Zalika)

0.2% [–] Burning Youth (Muchtar)

Kamil Fuchs conducted a poll of 802 people with a 3.5% margin of error that was broadcast by Channel 13 on October 13 2022.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

32 [29] Likud (Netanyahu)

26 [17] Yesh Atid (Lapid)

12 [07] Religious Zionist (Smotrich)

12 [16] National Unity (Gantz)

08 [09] Shas (Deri)

07 [07] United Torah Judaism (Gafni)

06 [07] Labor (Michaeli)

05 [07] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)

04 [06] Meretz (Galon)

04 [05] Hadash-Taal (Odeh)

04 [04] Ra’am (Abbas)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

1.9% [01] Balad (Abu Shachada)

1.7% [04] Bayit Yehudi (Shaked)

1.4% [–] New Economy (Zalika)

1.3% [–] Burning Youth (Muchtar)

0.4% [01] Free Economy (Kara)

0.3% [–] Democracy & Freedom (Avidar)

Panels conducted a poll of 802 people with a 3.5% margin of error that was published by Maariv on October 14 2022.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

32 [29] Likud (Netanyahu)

24 [17] Yesh Atid (Lapid)

13 [07] Religious Zionist (Smotrich)

12 [16] National Unity (Gantz)

08 [09] Shas (Deri)

07 [07] United Torah Judaism (Gafni)

06 [07] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)

05 [07] Labor (Michaeli)

05 [06] Meretz (Galon)

04 [05] Hadash-Taal (Odeh)

04 [04] Ra’am (Abbas)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

3% [04] Bayit Yehudi (Shaked)

1.2% [–] New Economy (Zalika)

1.1% [01] Balad (Abu Shachada)

0.7% [01] Free Economy (Kara)

0.2% [–] Burning Youth (Muchtar)

0.2% [–] Democracy & Freedom (Avidar)

Comment

KnessetJeremy Average: Likud 33, Yesh Atid 24, Smotrich 13, Gantz 11, Shas 8; Gantz takes beating & Labor surprises

Filed under: Knesset, Weekly Poll Avg — Leave a comment

October 9, 2022

This week Gantz’s party dropped 1.2 seats, this is the largest drop of any party on a week to week basis since the candidate lists were submitted. Yesh Atid also took a beating, dropping 0.6 since the last average. Yisrael Beitenu took a slight loss of 0.1. Not everything was negative for the anti-Netanyahu bloc as Labor gained 0.5 and Meretz went up 0.3.

Likud gained 0.7 and Smotrich’s party went up 0.4. Smotrich’s gain and Gantz’s loss has created a 2-seat advantage for Smotrich in the fight for third place. This is the best showing for the Netanyahu bloc in the average (60.8 to be exact).

Lapid’s bloc made gains the previous week when the agenda was focused on the possible disqualifications of Chikli, Silman, Balad and Raam. Netanyahu’s bloc made gains this past week when the agenda was on the proposed deal with Lebanon.

Party	Seats	This Week	Last Week	Gap
Likud	33	32.8	32.1	0.7
Yesh Atid	24	23.5	24.1	-0.6
Religious Zionist	13	12.8	12.4	0.4
National Unity	11	11.2	12.4	-1.2
Shas	8	8.2	8.2	0
UTJ	7	7	7	0
Yisrael Beitenu	6	5.8	5.9	-0.1
Labor	5	5.5	5	0.5
Meretz	5	5.2	4.9	0.3
Hadash-Taal	4	4	4	0
Raam	4	4	4	0

Party	Seats	This Week	Last Week	Gap
Bayit Yehudi	2.64	2.2	2.1	0.1
Balad	1.32	1.1	1.60%	-0.5
Zalika Party	0.84	0.7	0.70%	0
Kara Party	0.72	0.6	0.90%	-0.3
Burning Youth	0.48	0.4	0.50%	-0.1

Comment

4 Polls from the week

Filed under: Knesset, Polls — Leave a comment

Maagar Mochot conducted a poll of 511 people with a 4.4% margin of error that was published by Yisrael Hayom on October 6 2022.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

32 [29] Likud (Netanyahu)

24 [17] Yesh Atid (Lapid)

13 [07] Religious Zionist (Smotrich)

11 [16] National Unity (Gantz)

08 [09] Shas (Deri)

07 [07] United Torah Judaism (Gafni)

06 [07] Labor (Michaeli)

06 [06] Meretz (Galon)

05 [07] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)

04 [05] Hadash-Taal (Odeh)

04 [04] Ra’am (Abbas)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

2% [04] Bayit Yehudi (Shaked)

0.9% [–] New Economy (Zalika)

0.7% [01] Free Economy (Kara)

0.6% [01] Balad (Abu Shachada)

0% [–] Burning Youth (Muchtar)

0% [–] Democracy & Freedom (Avidar)

Panels conducted a poll of 715 people with a 3.7% margin of error that was broadcast by Knesset Channel on October 6 2022.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

32 [29] Likud (Netanyahu)

24 [17] Yesh Atid (Lapid)

13 [07] Religious Zionist (Smotrich)

11 [16] National Unity (Gantz)

08 [09] Shas (Deri)

07 [07] United Torah Judaism (Gafni)

06 [07] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)

06 [07] Labor (Michaeli)

05 [06] Meretz (Galon)

04 [05] Hadash-Taal (Odeh)

04 [04] Ra’am (Abbas)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

2.3% [04] Bayit Yehudi (Shaked)

1.3% [01] Balad (Abu Shachada)

Direct Polls conducted a poll of 591 people with a 4.4% margin of error that was broadcast by Channel 14 on October 6 2022.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

35 [29] Likud (Netanyahu)

23 [17] Yesh Atid (Lapid)

11 [07] Religious Zionist (Smotrich)

11 [16] National Unity (Gantz)

09 [09] Shas (Deri)

07 [07] United Torah Judaism (Gafni)

06 [07] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)

05 [07] Labor (Michaeli)

05 [06] Meretz (Galon)

04 [05] Hadash-Taal (Odeh)

04 [04] Ra’am (Abbas)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

2.2% [04] Bayit Yehudi (Shaked)

1.6% [01] Balad (Abu Shachada)

0.97% [–] Burning Youth (Muchtar)

0.47% [–] New Economy (Zalika)

0.34% [01] Free Economy (Kara)

Panels conducted a poll of 705 people with a 3.7% margin of error that was published by Maariv on October 7 2022.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

32 [29] Likud (Netanyahu)

23 [17] Yesh Atid (Lapid)

14 [07] Religious Zionist (Smotrich)

12 [16] National Unity (Gantz)

08 [09] Shas (Deri)

07 [07] United Torah Judaism (Gafni)

06 [07] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)

05 [07] Labor (Michaeli)

05 [06] Meretz (Galon)

04 [05] Hadash-Taal (Odeh)

04 [04] Ra’am (Abbas)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

2.4% [04] Bayit Yehudi (Shaked)

1.2% [01] Balad (Abu Shachada)

0.9% [01] Free Economy (Kara)

0.6% [–] New Economy (Zalika)

0.4% [–] Burning Youth (Muchtar)

Comment

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