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Netanyahu’s Fourth Cabinet

Prime Minister Netanyahu will work to sign coalition agreements with Kulanu, Bayit Yehudi, Shas, UTJ and Yisrael Beitenu over the next few weeks. Judging by his previous three governments Netanyahu will save the Likud ministry appointments for last. It will be a tough race since everyone is looking for a promotion following Likud’s jump from 18 Knesset seats to 30. The Prime Minister was re-elected with 15 MKs from the previous Likud list, and 3 MKs are returning vets who are all looking for top jobs. The race for the Likud ministerial slots will be intense if after signing coalition deals with five other parties the next government indeed is limited to 18 ministers as the current law mandates. Netanyahu has in the past ignored the Likud primary results and created his own formula for appointing Likud members to his cabinet.

The Likud minister candidates can be divided into four groups: The current ministers, the veterans returning from hiatus, the veterans who were not on hiatus, and the class of 2009.

Prime Minister Netanyahu was able to reduce the large number of Likud veterans seeking a portfolio by one with the reconfirmation of Speaker Edelstein on the first day of the Knesset session. The five current Likud Ministers view themselves as candidates for a promotion to top portfolios. Defense Minister Yaalon expects to keep his position despite Bayit Yehudi’s Naftali Bennett and Yisrael Beitenu’s Avigdor Liberman’s demands. Likud’s new #2, Interior Minister Gilad Erdan, who was Likud’s #3 in the previous two Netanyahu governments, is looking for a promotion, and there are only a handful of portfolios that would accomplish that such as Foreign Affairs or Justice. The other three Likud Ministers – Transportation Minister Yisrael Katz, Strategic Affairs Minister Yuval Steinitz and Energy and Water Minister Silvan Shalom are also looking for promotions. Shalom will most likely become the only cabinet member to serve in all four Netanyahu governments.

Three veteran MKs who are now back in Knesset after a hiatus are expecting to be added to the cabinet table before other Likud MKs are considered for promotion. Although they have had their share of disagreements, Former Minister Benny Begin, who was first elected to Knesset in 1988, was brought out of retirement twice by Netanyahu and served as a Minister in Netanyahu’s first and second governments. Former Kadima Minister and security figure Avi Dichter is also expecting a ministry despite placing 26th on the Likud’s list. Another back bencher #24, former Deputy Minister and Druze MK Ayoub Kara, who was first elected to Knesset in 1999, is expecting a ministry because he is the only non-Jewish candidate vying for a cabinet position.

The next three ministerial candidates include three veteran MKs who have not taken a hiatus and played active roles in Netanyahu’s previous governments. They expect Netanyahu to follow his previous behavior of favoring seniority over the Likud primary results. Former Minister Tzachi Hanegbi, also a member of the 1988 class that included Netanyahu and Begin, is one of just four current Likud MKs to have served in Netanyahu’s first cabinet (the others are Begin, Shalom and Edelstein, then of the Yisrael B’Aliyah party). Former Deputy Minister Gila Gamliel, the only current Likud member of the 2003 class that is not a minister, expects to be appointed as the senior female Likud member. Committee Chairman Chaim Katz who has been passed up many times for a portfolio since he was first elected to Knesset in 1999 is expecting to finally join the cabinet.

That leaves six right-wing members of the Likud 2009 class: Zeev Elkin, Yariv Levin, Ofir Akunis, Danny Danon, Tzipi Hotovelly and Miri Regev. All of them expect to be ministers. Some of them have scored very high in the last two Likud primaries and others expect to be rewarded for performing the more difficult tasks of Netanyahu’s second and third governments. Judging by Netanyahu’s previous preferences his next government might not include these six right-wing Likud members.

It is not just the 2009 class who might be disappointed. Others such as Kara and Chaim Katz could also see themselves disappointed as well. With so much focus on his coalition partners and 17 of the 30 Likud MKs expecting a ministry, Prime Minister Netanyahu might have bigger headaches during his fourth government from his own party members who are not happy with their appointments.

The Opening of the 20th Knesset

At 4 PM Knesset Secretary Yardena Meller-Horowitz opened the 20th Knesset session by introducing the President. President Reuven Rivlin gave the first speech of the 20th Knesset. Afterwards he swore in the most veteran MK Amir Peretz (Zionist Union) to serve as temporary Speaker of the House. Quotes were recited from both Tehilim (Psalms) and the declaration of independence to reflect the Jewish and democratic nature of the state. Speaker Peretz swore in his 119 colleagues with two minor interruptions by MKs Aryeh Deri (Shas) and Achmad Tibi (The Joint List). The session concluded with the national anthem Hatikva. At 4:55 PM Speaker Peretz called for a 65-minute recess for the purpose of enjoying the official toast and taking the ceremonial picture.

Following the First Recess

Speaker Peretz opened the session 32 minutes late. He announced that on March 25th President Rivlin officially handed over to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu the mandate to form the next government. Knesset Steering Committee Chairman Zeev Elkin (Likud) informed the Knesset of the proposed composition of the 32-member steering committee. The Steering Committee was approved in the first Knesset vote of the 20th Knesset – 107-0. Speaker Peretz announced that the Speaker of the previous Knesset, MK Yuli Edelstein (Likud), has been nominated by nine of the ten Knesset lists to serve as Speaker for the 20th Knesset. Edelstein’s nomination was approved by the Knesset vote of 103-1 with 7 abstaining MKs from The Joint List. Minister Shalom (Likud) announced that he has voted against Edelstein’s appointment by accident. The outgoing Speaker Peretz gave the gavel to the new (old) Speaker Edelstein. Speaker Edelstein gave a warm speech thanking the Knesset for re-electing him. Following the speech Speaker Edelstein called for a recess for the Steering Committee to convene and closed the 21-minute session.

Following the Second Recess

Speaker Edelstein opened the session after a 72-minute recess. Deputy Minister Ofir Akunis (Likud) announced that the Government has approved that Prime Minister Netanyahu will remain the caretaker Minister is charge of seven ministries – Finance, Health, Environment, Education, Science & Technology, Justice and Welfare. Akunis announced that in three of those ministries Netanyahu has appointed Deputy Ministers to administrate those offices – Deputy Environment Minister Akunis, Deputy Health Minister Tzachi Hanegbi (Likud) and Deputy Science & Technology Minister Tzipi Hotovely (Likud). Steering Committee Chairman Elkin announced that his committee has agreed on two temporary 17-MK Knesset Committees that will function until the new government if formed. Elkin designated the previous committee chairs to remain in their positions – Appropriations Committee Chairman Nissan Slomiansky (Bayit Yehudi) and Defense & Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Yariv Levin (Likud). Elkin announced that the Defense & Foreign Affairs Committee would meet the next day at 9:30 AM and the Appropriations Committee at 2 PM. Elkin informed Speaker Edelstein that the Steering Committee has decided to call for a Knesset Recess starting tomorrow (April 1st) until Monday May 4th. Elkin went through the procedures for the plenum and two functioning Knesset committees during the 33-day recess. Speaker Edelstein expressed hope that Prime Minister Netanyahu would form a government before the next Knesset session on May 4th.  The Speaker closed the third part of the Knesset session that lasted just ten minutes. Despite opening at 4 PM and closing at 8:15 PM the Knesset was in session for just 86 minutes.

President Rivlin conducted “Day 2″ of his consultations with the remaining delegations. Kulanu and Yisrael Beitenu nominated Netanyahu. Yesh Atid did not nominate anyone. Meretz chose to nominate Herzog.

It was the kingmaker Moshe Kahlon who endorsed Netanyahu for Phase 2 earlier in the day to bring him to 61 seats. This clinched Netanyahu’s victory and took away the possibility of President Rivlin choosing Herzog or demanding a unity government. The law does not allow the President to intervene if a candidate recieves a majority. Yesh Atid decided to keep their Phase 3 options open by not nominating Herzog for Phase 2, despite promising they would nominate Herzog before the elections.

President Rivlin will formally ask Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to form his fourth government when the official results are released tomorrow or on Wedensday. Netanyahu has already started holding talks with his potential coalition partners today. It is possible that coalition negotations will go on for several weeks. The next Knesset will be sworn in next week on Tuesday March 31st. Phase 3 will be conducted after Netanyahu signs enough coalition deals to produce a majority of at least 61 MKs to approve his fourth government in Knesset.

The final tally of Phase 2, Israel’s electoral college:

Netanyahu 67 (Likud, Bayit Yehudi, Shas, UTJ, Kulanu and Yisrael Beitenu), Herzog 29 (Zionist Union, Meretz), Neither 24 (The Joint List, Yesh Atid).

My 2 cents: I’ll note that before the election I predicted a Phase 2 coalition of 66 seats for Prime Minister Netanyahu that included the above lists and many of my loyal readers disagreed with me. :)

It is unprecedented, but President Rivlin received special permission from the Central Elections Committee Chairman to begin consultations with the delegations of the ten lists elected to Knesset prior to official results. Final results that are not yet official were published on Thursday.

Six lists arrived at the President’s Residence today for “Day 1”.

Following Day 1: Netanyahu has received 51 endorsements (Likud, Bayit Yehudi, Shas and UTJ), Herzog 24 (Zionist Union), Neither 13 (The Joint List).

Tomorrow “Day 2” will begin with the last four lists (Kulanu, Yisrael Beitenu, Yesh Atid and Meretz) who will meet with President Rivlin.

President Rivlin will be allowed to officially grant the mandate of forming the next government when he receives the official results on Tuesday or Wednesday.

Despite serious charges of racism against Netanyahu, The Joint List did not recommend Zionist Union leader Herzog in Phase 2. The Joint List’s decision all but officially clinches Phase 2 for Prime Minister Netanyahu.

For those who missed the Top 20 Model’s Party-by-Party High-Low

Likud
High – Ashkelon 39.88%, Beer Sheva 37.69%, Netanya 33.54%
Low – Bnei Brak 4.57%, Tel Aviv 18.19%, Haifa 20.74%

Zionist Union
High – Kfar Saba 34.94%, 34.45% Hertzlia Tel Aviv 34.27%
Low – Bnei Brak 1.28%, Bet Shemesh 3.28%, Ashdod 8.56%

The Joint List
High – Haifa 8.27%, Tel Aviv 3.18%, Jerusalem 1.23%
Low – All others under 1%

Yesh Atid
High – Modiin 18.01%, Hertzlia 14.98%, Rishon L’Tzion 14.40%
Low – Bnei Brak 0.65%, Bet Shemesh 2.60%, Jerusalem 4.21%

Kulanu
High – Hadera 15.75%, Holon 11.98%, Rishon L’Tzion 11.44%
Low – Bnei Brak 1.15%, Bet Shemesh 3.50%, Jerusalem 4.68%

Bayit Yehudi
High – Raanana 10.91%, Petah Tikva 10.71%, Modiin 10.56%
Low – Bnei Brak 2.35%, Tel Aviv 3.36%, Hertzlia 4.16%

Shas
High – Bnei Brak 23.97%, Bet Shemesh 14.35%, Jerusalem 11.95%
Low – Modiin 1.25%, Raanana 2.06%, Haifa 2.23%

Yisrael Beitenu
High – Ashkelon 15.12%, Ashdod 13.36%, Bat Yam 12.88%
Low – Bnei Brak 0.68%, Raanana 1.48%, Tel Aviv 2.09%

UTJ
High – Bnei Brak 59.35%, Bet Shemesh 28.30%, Jerusalem 21.13%
Low – Modiin 0.58%, Holon 0.62%, Kfar Saba 0.63%

Meretz
High – Tel Aviv 13.02%, Hertzlia 6.51%, Ramat Gan 6.15%
Low – Bnei Brak 0.20%, Bet Shemessh 0.48%, Ashdod 0.75%

Party/City 2015 Seats 2015 AVG 2013 Seats AVG Tel Aviv Tel Aviv
Years 2015 2013
Overall Votes 4,209,467 3,792,742 261,344 244,901
Likud 30 23.40% 31 w/YB 23.34% 18.19% 18%
Zionist Union 24 18.67% 15+6 16.38% 34.27% 24%
The Joint List 13 10.54% 4+4+3 9.20% 3.18% 3%
Yesh Atid 11 8.81% 19 14.33% 11.55% 21%
Kulanu 10 7.49% 6.88%
Bayit Yehudi 8 6.74% 12 9.12% 3.36% 4%
Shas 7 5.73% 11 8.75% 3.90% 6%
Yisrael Beitenu 6 5.11% w/Likud w/Likud 2.09% w/Likud
UTJ 6 5.03% 7 5.16% 1.07% 1%
Meretz 5 3.93% 6 4.55% 13.02% 14%
Party/City Jerusalem Jerusalem Haifa Haifa Rishon Rishon
Years 2015 2013 2015 2013 2015 2013
Overall Votes 255,286 241,139 149,560 139,363 137,810 125,345
Likud 24.24% 21% 20.74% 26% 29.98% 31%
Zionist Union 9.67% 9% 25.28% 22% 22.85% 21%
The Joint List 1.23% 1% 8.27% 7% 0.06% <1%
Yesh Atid 4.21% 7% 11.25% 18% 14.40% 23%
Kulanu 4.68% 8.49% 11.44%
Bayit Yehudi 8.33% 12% 5.37% 6% 5.25% 7%
Shas 11.95% 16% 2.23% 3% 2.97% 5%
Yisrael Beitenu 2.36% w/Likud 8.03% w/Likud 6.92% w/Likud
UTJ 21.13% 22% 3.27% 3% 0.67% 1%
Meretz 3.98% 4% 4.54% 5% 2.13% 2%
Party/City Petah Tikva Petah Tikva Ashdod Ashdod Netanya Netanya
Years 2015 2013 2015 2013 2015 2013
Overall Votes 124,400 111,194 113,203 103,274 105,468 92,694
Likud 28.15% 29% 31.49% 36% 33.54% 34%
Zionist Union 17.81% 16% 8.56% 10% 13.82% 13%
The Joint List 0.07% <1% 0.03% <1% 0.06% <1%
Yesh Atid 11.69% 18% 7.78% 10% 10.46% 16%
Kulanu 9.52% 7.61% 11.18%
Bayit Yehudi 10.71% 13% 4.83% 7% 6.43% 11%
Shas 5.58% 7% 10.53% 17% 7.77% 11%
Yisrael Beitenu 6.72% w/Likud 13.36% w/Likud 7.99% w/Likud
UTJ 3.87% 4% 9.83% 10% 2.77% 2%
Meretz 2.00% 2% 0.75% 1% 1.46% 2%
Party/City Holon Holon Beer Sheva Beer Sheva Ramat Gan Ramat Gan
Years 2015 2013 2015 2013 2015 2013
Overall Votes 102,064 93,248 97,153 85,611 85,126 80,182
Likud 31.19% 31% 37.69% 38% 22.96% 23%
Zionist Union 20.12% 19% 12.24% 13% 31.15% 24%
The Joint List 0.09% <1% 0.55% <1% 0.23% <1%
Yesh Atid 12.50% 20% 7.53% 11% 14.28% 23%
Kulanu 11.98% 8.80% 9.74%
Bayit Yehudi 4.86% 6% 6.98% 12% 6.03% 7%
Shas 7.88% 11% 6.36% 13% 3.13% 4%
Yisrael Beitenu 5.49% w/Likud 12.06% w/Likud 2.55% w/Likud
UTJ 0.62% <1% 0.70% 1% 0.98% 1%
Meretz 2.13% 3% 1.40% 2% 6.15% 7%
Party/City Bnei Brak Bnei Brak Rechovot Rechovot Bat Yam Bat Yam
Years 2015 2013 2015 2013 2015 2013
Overall Votes 78,621 75,147 69,382 62,147 68,204 63,960
Likud 4.57% 4% 27.18% 27% 33.36% 37%
Zionist Union 1.28% 1% 20.64% 19% 14.58% 16%
The Joint List 0.02% <1% 0.15% <1% 0.18% <1%
Yesh Atid 0.65% 1% 11.77% 17% 9.27% 15%
Kulanu 1.15% 8.78% 11.19%
Bayit Yehudi 2.35% 4% 8.35% 11% 5.15% 7%
Shas 23.97% 25% 4.80% 8% 6.88% 12%
Yisrael Beitenu 0.68% w/Likud 5.26% w/Likud 12.88% w/Likud
UTJ 59.35% 60% 3.58% 4% 1.03% 1%
Meretz 0.20% <1% 3.76% 4% 1.42% 2%
Party/City Ashkelon Ashkelon Kfar Saba Kfar Saba Hertzlia Hertzlia
Years 2015 2013 2015 2013 2015 2013
Overall Votes 63,836 54,431 56,477 51,659 53,681 50,958
Likud 39.88% 42% 21.89% 23% 21.88% 22%
Zionist Union 9.72% 11% 34.94% 26% 34.45% 24%
The Joint List 0.08% <1% 0.19% <1% 0.19% <1%
Yesh Atid 6.60% 10% 14.32% 22% 14.98% 26%
Kulanu 8.37% 7.88% 8.54%
Bayit Yehudi 5.68% 9% 5.57% 7% 4.16% 6%
Shas 6.58% 14% 2.43% 4% 2.85% 4%
Yisrael Beitenu 15.12% w/Likud 3.39% w/Likud 2.67% w/Likud
UTJ 1.00% 1% 0.63% <1% 1.08% 1%
Meretz 0.89% 1% 5.98% 7% 6.51% 8%
Party/City Hadera Hadera Modiin Modiin Raanana Raanana
Years 2015 2013 2015 2013 2015 2013
Overall Votes 44,726 38,578 43,830 39,954 42,842 41,153
Likud 32.16% 34% 22.87% 23% 21.45% 19%
Zionist Union 15.86% 18% 29.06% 23% 32.95% 23%
The Joint List 0.31% <1% 0.08% <1% 0.11% <1%
Yesh Atid 9.83% 16% 18.01% 27% 14.18% 24%
Kulanu 15.75% 8.12% 6.73%
Bayit Yehudi 5.04% 8% 10.56% 12% 10.91% 14%
Shas 6.09% 9% 1.25% 2% 2.06% 3%
Yisrael Beitenu 8.38% w/Likud 2.19% w/Likud 1.48% w/Likud
UTJ 1.69% 2% 0.58% <1% 1.20% 1%
Meretz 1.94% 2% 4.84% 6% 5.47% 7%
Party/City Bet Shemesh Bet Shemesh
Years 2015 2013
Overall Votes 33,878 29,593
Likud 26.72% 23%
Zionist Union 3.28% 4%
The Joint List 0.02% <1%
Yesh Atid 2.60% 4%
Kulanu 3.50%
Bayit Yehudi 9.01% 14%
Shas 14.35% 18%
Yisrael Beitenu 3.90% w/Likud
UTJ 28.30% 28%
Meretz 0.48% 1%

Update: Party-by-Party High-Low

Likud
High – Ashkelon 39.88%, Beer Sheva 37.69%, Netanya 33.54%
Low – Bnei Brak 4.57%, Tel Aviv 18.19%, Haifa 20.74%

Zionist Union
High – Kfar Saba 34.94%, 34.45% Hertzlia Tel Aviv 34.27%
Low – Bnei Brak 1.28%, Bet Shemesh 3.28%, Ashdod 8.56%

The Joint List
High – Haifa 8.27%, Tel Aviv 3.18%, Jerusalem 1.23%
Low – All others under 1%

Yesh Atid
High – Modiin 18.01%, Hertzlia 14.98%, Rishon L’Tzion 14.40%
Low – Bnei Brak 0.65%, Bet Shemesh 2.60%, Jerusalem 4.21%

Kulanu
High – Hadera 15.75%, Holon 11.98%, Rishon L’Tzion 11.44%
Low – Bnei Brak 1.15%, Bet Shemesh 3.50%, Jerusalem 4.68%

Bayit Yehudi
High – Raanana 10.91%, Petah Tikva 10.71%, Modiin 10.56%
Low – Bnei Brak 2.35%, Tel Aviv 3.36%, Hertzlia 4.16%

Shas
High – Bnei Brak 23.97%, Bet Shemesh 14.35%, Jerusalem 11.95%
Low – Modiin 1.25%, Raanana 2.06%, Haifa 2.23%

Yisrael Beitenu
High – Ashkelon 15.12%, Ashdod 13.36%, Bat Yam 12.88%
Low – Bnei Brak 0.68%, Raanana 1.48%, Tel Aviv 2.09%

UTJ
High – Bnei Brak 59.35%, Bet Shemesh 28.30%, Jerusalem 21.13%
Low – Modiin 0.58%, Holon 0.62%, Kfar Saba 0.63%

Meretz
High – Tel Aviv 13.02%, Hertzlia 6.51%, Ramat Gan 6.15%
Low – Bnei Brak 0.20%, Bet Shemessh 0.48%, Ashdod 0.75%

Party Double Envelopes
Likud 25.65%
Zionist Union 17.71%
Bayit Yehudi 12.39%
The Joint List 12.39%
Yesh Atid 9.41%
Kulanu 8.81%
Meretz 4.56%
Shas 4.45%
Yisrael Beitenu 4%
Green Leaf 3.64%
Yachad 2.90%
UTJ 2.69%

Double envelope votes: Israeli army bases, overseas voting, specialized handicap stations, hospitals, jails and polling station committee members.

Notable MKs and former MKs who missed out on a Knesset seat

Likud – #37 Former Deputy Minister Michael Ratzon
Labor – #29 MK Moshe Mizrachi, #28 Former MK Robert Tyivayev
The Joint List – None
Yesh Atid – #12 MK Elazar Stern, #13 MK Penina Tamano, #14 MK Boaz Toporovsky, #15 MK Ruth Calderon, #16 MK Yifat Kariv, #17 MK Dov Lipman, #18 MK Ronen Hoffman
Kulanu – #12 Former MK and Kadima leader Akrem Hasoon
Bayit Yehudi – #9 MK Shuli Muaalam, #10 Deputy Minister Avi Wortzman, #13 MK Orit Struck
Shas – #8 MK Avraham Michaeli
Yisrael Beitenu – #7 MK Robert Ilatov, #11 MK Alex Miller, #12 MK Leon Litinsky, MK #14 Shimon Ochayon, #16 Former MK Moshe Matalon
UTJ – #7 MK Yaakov Asher
Meretz – #6 Former MK Mosi Raz, #9 Former MK Avshalom Vilan

Party Seats Smith -17 Teleseker -17 New Wave -17 Panels -19 Dialog -19 Midgam -19 Geo -20 Maagar Mochot -23 TRI -23
Likud 30 21 -9 23 -7 23 -7 21 -9 20 -10 22 -8 26 -4 21 -9 24 -6
Zionist Union 24 25 -1 25 -1 23 -1 25 -1 24 26 -2 21 -3 24 24
The Joint List 13 13 12 -1 13 13 13 13 12 -1 12 -1 12 -1
Yesh Atid 11 11 12 -1 13 -2 13 -2 12 -1 12 -1 12 -1 13 -2 14 -3
Kulanu 10 9 -1 9 -1 9 -1 10 10 8 -2 8 -2 8 -2 8 -2
Bayit Yehudi 8 11 -3 11 -3 12 -4 11 -3 12 -4 11 -3 13 -5 13 -5 12 -4
Shas 7 9 -2 7 6 -1 7 7 7 8 -1 7 5 -2
Yisrael Beitenu 6 6 6 6 4 -2 5 -1 5 -1 7 -1 5 -1 4 -2
UTJ 6 6 7 -1 6 6 7 -1 6 8 -2 7 -1 7 -1
Merertz 5 5 4 -1 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 -1
Yachad 0 (3) 4 -1 4 -1 4 -1 5 -2 5 -2 5 -2 3 5 -2 4 -1

 

Company Off by Last Poll
Smith -17 13-Mar
Telesker -17 13-Mar
New Wave -17 6-Mar
Panels -19 13-Mar
Dialog -19 14-Mar
Midgam -19 14-Mar
Geo -20 8-Mar
Maagar Mochot -23 12-Mar
TRI -23 10-Mar

The only pollster to correctly predict Netanyahu’s Phase 2 partners at 67 seats vs his non-Phase 2 partners at 53 seats is Teleseker.

Smith, New Wave, Dialog and Maagar Mochot predicted 66 seats, Panels, Midgam and TRI predicted 64,  Geocartography predicted 70.

 Party 2015 Seats 2015% 2013 Seats 2013%
Likud 30 23.40% 31 w/YB 23.34%
Zionist Union 24 18.67% 15+6 16.38%
The Joint List 13 10.54% 4+4+3 9.20%
Yesh Atid 11 8.81% 19 14.33%
Kulanu 10 7.49%
Bayit Yehudi 8 6.74% 12 9.12%
Shas 7 5.73% 11 8.75%
Yisrael Beitenu 6 5.11% w/Likud w/Likud
UTJ 6 5.03% 7 5.16%
Meretz 5 3.93% 6 4.55%
Yachad 0 2.97% Otzma – 0 1.76%
Kadima 2 2.09%

Interesting voter breakdown by subgroup:

2013: Right – Likud+Yisrael Beitenu+Bayit Yehudi=43

2015: Right – Likud+Yisrael Beitenu+Bayit Yehudi=44

2013: Center – Lapid+Kadima=21

2015: Center – Lapid+Kulanu=21

2013: Left – Labor+Livni+Meretz=27

2015: Left – Labor+Livni+Meretz=29

2013: Arabs – Hadash+Ra’am+Ta’al+Balad=11

2015: Arabs – Hadash+Ra’am+Ta’al+Balad=13

2013: Haredim – Shas+UTJ=18

2015: Haredim – Shas+UTJ=13

Quick Analysis:

* Right voters moved within their camp.

* Center voters with a Center-Right tendency broke from Lapid to Kahlon.

* Left voters moved within their camp.

* Arabs increased turnout thanks to united list.

* Haredim were hurt by internal voting boycotts and perhaps as much as 1.21% going to Yachad.

Party Exit Poll AVG Knesset Jeremy Model Results after 99.9% Results vs Exits Results vs KJ
Likud 26.2 22 30 +3.8 +8
Zionist Union 25.6 25 24 -1.6 -1
Joint Arab List 13 12 13 0 +1
Yesh Atid 11.8 12 11 -0.8 -1
Kulanu 9.6 9 10 +0.4 +1
Bayit Yehudi 8.4 12 8 -0.4 -4
Shas 7.2 7 7 -0.2 0
UTJ 6.6 7 6 -0.6 -1
Yisrael Beitenu 5.2 5 6 +0.8 +1
Meretz 5.2 5 5 -0.2 0
Yachad 3.2 4 0 (3) -0.2 -1

Facts:

* Both Exit Poll average and Knesset Jeremy average are within 1 seat on 9 of the 11 parties.

* Exit polls are very close to the current results with the exception of Likud that is at +3.8.

* Knesset Jeremy Model published last week is very close to the results with the exception of Likud gaining at the expense of Bayit Yehudi.

Analysis:

* Likud is the “Yesh Atid” of the 2015 elections.

* Likud gradually gained at the expense of Bayit Yehudi during the last four-five days before the elections as indicated by internal polls that were prohibited from being published by Israeli law.

* Likud gain at expense of Bayit Yehudi is similar on a mathematical level to Yesh Atid gain at expense of Bayit Yehudi in previous election.

* Last polls gave us an accurate picture of Thursday-Friday before Likud’s strategic voting offensive against the right was launched.

* Exit polls missed Likud by close to four seats because their model missed a specific demographic or geographic area.

* It will probably take a few days of going over data to understand what they missed.

* Group of parties that are expected to nominate Prime Minister Netanyahu according to Phase 2 prediction was 66 in the Knesset Jeremy Model and that group is now currently at 67.

*This proves that the last minute shift was within the blocs.

Conclusions:

* People are going to focus too much on the polls getting Likud wrong and not enough on the polls more or less getting everything else right.

* I’m looking forward to an interesting and exciting Phase 2 process where I expect Kulanu, Bayit Yehudi, Shas, UTJ and Yisrael Beitenu to join Likud in nominating Prime Minister Netanyahu to get first crack at putting together his fourth term as Prime Minister.

Updates:

The table has been updated to reflect over 200,000 double envelope votes that were counted on March 19.

Party Channel 2 Channel 10 Channel 1 Channel 99 Channel 20 Exit Poll AVG Knesset Jeremy Model Difference
Likud 28 27 27 26 23 26.2 22 4.2
Zionist Union 27 27 27 27 20 25.6 25 0.6
Joint Arab List 13 13 13 13 13 13 12 1
Yesh Atid 12 11 12 12 12 11.8 12 -0.2
Kulanu 9 10 10 10 9 9.6 9 0.6
Bayit Yehudi 8 8 9 9 8 8.4 12 -3.6
Shas 7 7 7 7 8 7.2 7 0.2
UTJ 6 7 6 6 8 6.6 7 -0.4
Yisrael Beitenu 5 5 5 5 6 5.2 5 0.2
Meretz 5 5 5 5 6 5.2 5 0.2
Yachad 3 3 3 3 4 3.2 4 -0.8

According to the average of exit polls, Knesset Jeremy Model predicted 9 of 11 parties within one seat.

The exception being the transfer of votes from Bayit Yehudi to Likud in the final days at an advanced rate.

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