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Geocartography conducted a poll that was published by Israel National News (Arutz 7) on Dec 21 2014.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

27 [18] Likud

25 [21] Labor-Livni

11 [11] Bayit Yehudi

09 [10] Shas

09 [–] Koolanu (Kahlon)

08 [13] Yisrael Beitenu

07 [19] Yesh Atid

07 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

07 [06] Meretz

10 [11] Hadash, Ra’am-Ta’al & Balad

00 [02] Kadima

00 [02] Maran (Yishai)

 

71 [61] Right-Religious (Possible BB coalition)

49 [59] Center-Left-Arab (Anti-BB coalition)

conducted a poll that was published by Israel National News (Arutz 7) on Dec 21 2014.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

27 [18] Likud

25 [21] Labor-Livni

11 [11] Bayit Yehudi

09 [10] Shas

09 [–] Koolanu (Kahlon)

08 [13] Yisrael Beitenu

07 [19] Yesh Atid

07 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

07 [06] Meretz

10 [11] Hadash, Ra’am-Ta’al & Balad

00 [02] Kadima

00 [02] Maran (Yishai)

 

71 [61] Right-Religious (Possible BB coalition)

49 [59] Center-Left-Arab (Anti-BB coalition)

Knesset Jeremy’s Weekly Average – The Israeli Poll of Polls

Knesset Jeremy Weekly Average #3 (week of Dec 14-Dec 20 2014) of 7 polls from 4 polling companies (3 Panels, 2 Smith, 1 Geocartography, 1 Dialog, 0 Midgam, Maagar Mochot, Teleseker, New Wave, Sarid):

(Last Week in brackets), current Knesset seats in [brackets]

1st 22.1 (22.2) [21] Labor+Livni

2nd 22.0 (21.2) [18] Likud

3rd 15.4 (15.7) [11] Bayit Yehudi* (includes poll of 13 w/o Tekuma)

4th 10.1 (10.2) [–] Koolanu

5th 09.2 (09.0) [19] Yesh Atid

6th 08.8 (09.5) [13] Yisrael Beitenu

7th 07.2 (08.2) [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

8th 06.7 (05.8) [06] Meretz

9th 05.5 (07.7) [10] Shas

10th 3.8 [02] Maran (Yishai+Chetboun)* (polled in 5 of 7 polls this week, including 2 & 3 seat showings)

11th 10.1 (10.0) [11] Hadash (5), Ra’am-Ta’al (5.1) & Balad (0.0)

12th 00.0 (00.0) [02] Kadima

 

71.7 (73.5) [61] Right-Religious (Possible BB coalition)

48.2 (46.5) [59] Center-Left-Arab (Anti-BB coalition Labor-Livni-Yesh Atid-Meretz-Arabs)

Changes from week 2 to week 3:

Yesh Atid moves up to 5th, Yisrael Beitenu falls for the 2nd straight week, now in 6th place.

Meretz moves up to 8th place.

Shas falls to 9th place, Yishai appears in 10th in first week of official polling.

Largest Gains: Yishai joins with 3.8 seats, Meretz gained .9 and Likud gained .8

Biggest Losses: Shas dropped 2.2 seats, UTJ lost 1 seat, Yisrael Beitenu lost 0.7 (after losing 1.5 seats week before).

 

Party Breakdown (last week in brackets)

1st: Labor-Livni: High – 23 (24), Low – 21 (18)

2nd: Likud: High – 23 (25), Low – 21 (20)

3rd: Bayit Yehudi: High – 16 (18), Low – 13 w/o Ariel (11)

4th: Koolanu: High – 12 (13), Low – 9 (9)

5th: Yesh Atid: High – 11 (10), Low- 8 (8)

6th: Yisrael Beitenu: High – 10 (11), Low – 8 (8)

7th: UTJ: High – 8 (11), Low – 7 (7)

8th: Meretz: High – 7 (6), Low – 6 (5)

9th: Shas: High – 8 (10), Low – 4 (6)

Right-Religious (Possible BB coalition): High – 73 (78), Low – 70 (71)

Center-Left-Arab (Anti-BB coalition): High – 50 (49), Low – 47 (42)

Knesset Jeremy Analysis – Week 3:

1 – Right-Religious Bloc: Week 1-76.4, Week 2-73.5, Week 3-71.7.

Prime Minister Netanyahu’s future coalition partners have been gradually dropping. This potential bloc has never dropped under 70 in any poll since early elections were called. The bloc’s high this week was 73 and the average is now 71.7.

2 – Labor-Livni 22.1, Likud 22.0.

The “Livni Momentum” is over. In most polls Labor-Livni is deadlocked with Likud. Both parties have a high of 23 and a low of 21. Take the margin of error into account and you are really looking at a tie ball game.

3 – Deri 5.5, Yishai 3.8.

The long awaited Shas split finally happened. Yishai did not exit with MKs Zeev, Margi & Michaeli as expected. Instead Yishai has partnered with Bayit Yehudi refugee Yoni Chetboun and waiting for his old friend Uri Ariel to change his mind. However, the real story is that Shas without Yishai dropped 2.2 seats in a week.

4 – Yisrael Beitenu has lost 2.2 seats in last two weeks.

This is the headline that everyone has ignored. Yisrael Beitenu dropped from 4th place to 5th place last week and dropped from 5th place to 6th place this week. It is possible that the mainstream will notice before they drop under UTJ?

5 –Shaul Mofaz – Defense Minister (really)

Why are we still polling Kadima? Why hasn’t Mofaz merged with Labor yet? After all, Herzog already reserved for him a spot on the next list. Well, he is demanding the Defense portfolio from Herzog, along with a 2nd reserved spot. I guess Ronit Tirosh probably regrets turning down that 2nd Knesset spot earlier this week. Why on earth would Mofaz think he could turn 2-seats into a Defense portfolio? Well, what else do you expect when you are negotiating with the guy who offered Livni who wasn’t passing the threshold a rotation for Prime Minister?

6 – Week 4

Indeed as I predicted last week, Week 3 was the polling week of MK Eli Yishai. A Lapid-Kahlon joint ticket was the scenario polling favorite of the week. Of course there is little reason for Kahlon to join Lapid. I expect the next scenario polls will look at Lapid-Liberman. Other week 4 scenario polls could look at possible additions to the Kulanu list.

Smith conducted a poll that was broadcast by Reshet Bet on Dec 19 2014. Additionally there was a scenario poll with a Yesh Atid + Koolanu ticket.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

23 [21] Labor-Livni

22 [18] Likud

13 [08] Bayit Yehudi

09 [–] Koolanu (Kahlon)

08 [19] Yesh Atid

08 [13] Yisrael Beitenu

07 [10] Shas

07 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

07 [06] Meretz

06 [05] Maran/Yachad (Yishai+Ariel+Chetboun)

10 [11] Hadash, Ra’am-Ta’al & Balad

00 [02] Kadima

 

72 [61] Right-Religious (Possible BB coalition)

48 [59] Center-Left-Arab (Anti-BB coalition)

Scenario Poll: Joint Yesh Atid + Koolanu ticket.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

23 [19] Yesh Atid + Koolanu (Kahlon)

22 [21] Labor-Livni

21 [18] Likud

Other parties not broadcast

Panels conducted a poll of 507 people with a 3.4% margin of error that was broadcast by a Maariv journalist on Radio Dec 18 2014. The poll was conducted Dec 17. Additional results were published on Dec 19 in Maariv & Jerusalem Post. Additionally, they conducted a scenario poll with a joint Kahlon-Lapid ticket.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

23 [21] Labor-Livni

21 [18] Likud

16 [11] Bayit Yehudi

10 [19] Yesh Atid

10 [–] Koolanu (Kahlon)

08 [13] Yisrael Beitenu

07 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

07 [06] Meretz

05 [04] Hadash

05 [04] Ra’am-Ta’al

04 [10] Shas

04 [02] Maran (Yishai)

00 [03] Balad

00 [02] Kadima

 

70 [61] Right-Religious (Possible BB coalition)

50 [59] Center-Left-Arab (Anti-BB coalition)

Scenario Poll: Joint Lapid+Kahlon ticket

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

23 [21] Labor-Livni

22 [19] Yesh Atid + Koolanu (Kahlon)

20 [18] Likud

16 [11] Bayit Yehudi

08 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

07 [13] Yisrael Beitenu

06 [06] Meretz

05 [04] Hadash

05 [04] Ra’am-Ta’al

04 [10] Shas

04 [02] Maran (Yishai)

00 [03] Balad

00 [02] Kadima

Additional Questions:
Do you want Netanyahu as Prime Minister after the elections?

58% No, 34% Yes, 8% Don’t know

If Netanyahu is not the next Prime Minister, who would you like to see?

28% Herzog, 26% No one, 10% Bennett, 10% Livni, 9% Lapid, 6% Lieberman, 6% Don’t know, 5% Kahlon

Did Tzipi Livni’s TV appearance on “State of the Nation” change your opinion of voting for a joint Labor-Livni ticket?

47% No change, 42% Lowered chance I will vote for Labor-Livni, 6% Increased chance I will vote for Labor-Livni, 5% No opinion

Will you vote on March 17 2015?

72% Yes, 17% Maybe, 6% Don’t know, 5% No

Why are you not voting?

57% Elections won’t change anything, 21% No one I want to vote for, 16% Doesn’t interest me, 6% Netanyahu will be Prime Minister again anyways so it doesn’t matter

 

Smith conducted a poll that was published by Globes on Dec 18 2014. The poll was conducted Dec 17.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

23 [21] Labor-Livni

23 [18] Likud

16 [11] Bayit Yehudi

09 [–] Koolanu (Kahlon)

09 [13] Yisrael Beitenu

08 [19] Yesh Atid

08 [10] Shas

07 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

06 [07] Ra’am-Ta’al & Balad

06 [06] Meretz

05 [04] Hadash

02 [02] Maran (Yishai) – under threshold not used in stats below

00 [02] Kadima

 

72 [61] Right-Religious (Possible BB coalition)

48 [59] Center-Left-Arab (Anti-BB coalition)

Additional Question:
Who is more suitable to serve as next Prime Minister?

39% Netanyahu, 35% Herzog, 26% Neither

Dialog conducted a poll of 505 people with a 4.2% margin of error that was published by Haaretz on Dec 17 2014. The poll was conducted on Dec 16. Additionally, Dialog conducted a scenario poll with Yesh Atid & Kahlon on a joint ticket. This is the 5th of the last 6 polls conducted where the joint Labor-Livni ticket does not receive more than Likud.  In the scenario poll, Kahlon running with Lapid in the Center-Left-Arab bloc reaches 60.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

21 [21] Labor-Livni

21 [18] Likud

16 [11] Bayit Yehudi

12 [–] Koolanu (Kahlon)

11 [19] Yesh Atid

08 [13] Yisrael Beitenu

08 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

06 [06] Meretz

05 [04] Hadash

05 [04] Ra’am-Ta’al

04 [10] Shas

03 [02] Maran (Yishai)

00 [03] Balad

00 [02] Kadima

 

72 [61] Right-Religious (Possible BB coalition)

48 [59] Center-Left-Arab (Anti-BB coalition)

*Note Electoral threshold is 3.25% (4 seats)

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

24 [19] Yesh Atid & Koolanu (Kahlon)

21 [18] Likud

20 [21] Labor-Livni

16 [11] Bayit Yehudi

09 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

08 [13] Yisrael Beitenu

06 [06] Meretz

05 [04] Hadash

05 [04] Ra’am-Ta’al

03 [10] Shas

03 [02] Maran (Yishai)

00 [03] Balad

00 [02] Kadima

60 [61] Right-Religious-without Kahlon

60 [59] Center-Left-Arab-Kahlon

*Note Electoral threshold is 3.25% (4 seats)

 

Geocartography conducted a poll that was broadcast on Israeli Radio on Dec 16 2014.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

23 [18] Likud

21 [21] Labor-Livni

16 [11] Bayit Yehudi

11 [–] Koolanu (Kahlon)

10 [13] Yisrael Beitenu

09 [19] Yesh Atid

07 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

07 [06] Meretz

06 [10] Shas

05 [04] Hadash

05 [04] Ra’am-Ta’al

04 [–] Strong Israel

00 [03] Balad

00 [02] Kadima

00 [02] Maran (Yishai)

 

73 [61] Right-Religious (Possible BB coalition)

47 [59] Center-Left-Arab (Anti-BB coalition)

Panels conducted a poll with a 4.3% margin of error that was broadcast by Knesset Channel on Dec 16 2014. The first poll to have the Eli Yishai party since the announcement, it also polls Bayit Yehudi & Tekuma separately. Please note the change in current Knesset seats following the latest splits.

Panels also conducted a poll with Bayit Yehudi & Tekuma together – 16 seats.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

22 [21] Labor-Livni

22 [18] Likud

15 [08] Bayit Yehudi

10 [19] Yesh Atid

10 [––] Kulanu (Kachlon)

09 [13] Yisrael Beitenu

07 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

07 [06] Meretz

05 [04] Hadash

05 [04] Ra’am-Ta’al

04 [10] Shas

04 [02] Yishai Party

00 [03] Balad

00 [03] Tekuma

00 [02] Kadima

 

71 [61] Right-Religious (Possible BB coalition)

49 [59] Center-Left-Arab (Anti-BB coalition)

Additional Questions:

From the following list of people, who is most fit to be Prime Minister?

29% Netanyahu, 19% Herzog, 12% Bennett, 7% Livni, 6% Lapid, 4% Liberman, 2% Kachlon, 14% Don’t know/No one

How would you define Tzipi Livni’s performance on the “State of the Nation” TV show?

33% Embarrassing, 32% Crossed red lines, 18% Funny, 11% Legitimate
(Among Labor/Livni voters: 37% Funny, 29% Legitimate, 24% Negative answers)

Do you think Herzog did the right thing by signing an agreement with Livni for a Prime Minister rotation ?

53% No, 32% Yes
(Among Labor/Livni voters: 75% Herzog did the right thing)

Where do you place Avigdor Liberman on the political map between right and left?

44% Right, 30% Center-Right, 8% Center, 10% Center-Left, 2% Left

In your eyes is Avigdor Liberman suitable to serve as Prime Minister?

78% No, 20% Yes

Do you plan on voting?

75% Yes, 16% Maybe, 5% No

TRI conducted a poll of 501 people with a 4.5% margin of error that was published by Bizportal and Tapuz on Dec 15 2014.

How do you define yourself: Are you right, center or left?

45.7% Right, 35.9% Center, 8.4% Left, 10% Don’t identify with right-center-left

* Interesting stat: Age group of 18-44 right, 45-54 center, 55+ left.

From the following candidates who is your preference for the position of Prime Minister?

25.3% Herzog, 24.8 Netanyahu, 13.4% Bennett, 8.9% Kachlon, 5.6% Liberman, 5.4% Lapid, 1.4% Gal-On, 15.4% Don’t know

Panels conducted a poll of 503 people with a margin of error of 4.5% that was broadcast by Knesset Channel on Dec 15 2014.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

22 [21] Labor-Livni

22 [18] Likud

16 [12] Bayit Yehudi

10 [13] Yisrael Beitenu

10 [–] Kulanu (Kachlon)

09 [19] Yesh Atid

08 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

07 [06] Meretz

06 [11] Shas

05 [04] Hadash

05 [04] Ra’am-Ta’al

00 [03] Balad

00 [02] Kadima

 

72 [61] Right-Religious (Possible BB coalition)

48 [59] Center-Left-Arab (Anti-BB coalition)

From the following list of people, which one would you like to see as Prime Minister after elections?

30% Netanyahu, 23% Don’t know, 21% Herzog, 11% Bennett, 4% Kachlon, 4% Livni, 4% Lapid, 3% Liberman

* Additional questions from the poll will be broadcast later in the day and I will add them.

* First poll taken after Livni’s TV “meltdown”

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