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Knesset Jeremy’s Weekly Average – The Israeli Poll of Polls

Knesset Jeremy Weekly Average #9 (week of Jan 25-Jan 31 2015) of 9 polls from 6 polling companies (2 Teleseker, 2 Panels, 2 Smith, 1 Dialog, 1 Midgam, 1 Maagar Mochot, 0 Geocartography, Sarid, TRI, New Wave)

(Last Week in brackets), current Knesset seats in [brackets]

1st 25.2 (24.4) [20] Zionist Union (Labor+Livni)

2nd 24.4 (24.0) [18] Likud

3rd 14.7 (15.6) [11] Bayit Yehudi

4th 12.0 (11.2) [11] United Arab List

5th 09.4 (09.6) [20] Yesh Atid

6th 07.7 (07.6) [02] Koolanu (Kahlon+Kadima)

7th 07.1 (07.4) [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

8th 07.1 (07.4) [10] Shas

9th 05.4 (05.8) [13] Yisrael Beitenu

10th 05.3 (05.4) [06] Meretz

11th 03.3 (03.4) [02] Yachad (Yishai+Chetboun+Marzel)

 

68.0 (69.4) [61] Right-Religious (Parties that have not ruled out a BB coalition)

52.0 (50.4) [59] Center-Left-Arab (Parties that have ruled out a BB coalition)

Largest Gains: Zionist Union and United Arab List gained 0.8 seats each, Likud gained 0.4.

Biggest Losses: Bayit Yehudi dropped 0.9 seats, Yisrael Beitenu lost 0.4., Shas & UTJ lost 0.3 each.

Knesset Jeremy Analysis – Week 9:

1 – The Craziest week of polling – Unusual news cycle shifts and submitting of the lists

The four polls conducted earlier in the week had Zionist Union ahead, yet Likud led Labor in the average of the five polls conducted later in the week. Bayit Yehudi had a bad week in the polling department following the Eli Ochana saga. The news cycle week started with Prime Minister Netanyahu’s upcoming speech in Washington as the main headline and it slowly shifted towards security matters as the northern border heated up. Thursday’s news cycle was filled with drama as the last parties submitted their lists. The movement caused this week’s polls to jump from one side to another. Next week we will be looking at a full week of numbers following the publication of the final lists.

2 – The Collapse of the Center: Yesh Atid 9.4, Koolanu 7.7, Yisrael Beitenu 5.4

The center keeps shrinking. Yesh Atid, the largest party in the outgoing Knesset, is now polling as the 5th largest party. Yesh Atid is frequently polling at 8 seats, but still manages a 9.4 average thanks to 4 of the 9 polls this week that still put them in double-digits. After facing weeks of declining polls, Lapid went with a very similar list to last time, just two new faces in his top 18.

Kahlon lost his #3 because she didn’t resign from her government job in time to run in the election, the Na Nach Nachman party stole the ‘Koolanu’ name for their party and Kahlon made a last minute decision to merge with new Kadima leader Hasoon for their 2 seats of party funding. Kahlon was averaging in double digits before he picked a name, a list to run with and started an actual campaign.

Another week has gone by, so Yisrael Beitenu has lost more support. Yisrael Beitenu is now polling 9th with just 5.4 seats. Yisrael Beitenu finished with just 4 or 5 seats in a majority of polls conducted this week. Voters seem to still be confused about what Liberman stands for anymore.

3 – Haredim: UTJ 7.1, Shas 7.1, Yachad 3.3

UTJ submitted the same seven people from last time for their top seven spots this time. In the Shas shuffle Shas MKs Zeev, Amnon Cohen and Edri were forced into retirement. The other seven MKs were reordered to take the 2-8 spots after Shas leader Aryeh Deri. Yishai’s party Yachad passed the threshold in a third of the polls, including the only poll conducted after the Yishai-Marzel merger. I will expand on Yishai’s unlikely joint alliance list next week.

4 –United Arab List 12.0 and Meretz 5.3

The results of the first week of polling after the United Arab List was formed are in. Nine polls from six different polling companies all agree – 4th place and 12 seats. For now the alliance is proving to be a fruitful endeavor. Meretz keeps slipping and is now polling 10th. Meretz, who is polling a high of 6 this week, has failed so far in their attempt to convince leftist voters not to vote for the Zionist Union.

5 – 26 Lists and the 3.25% Threshold.

There are 26 lists running in this election and it looks like only 10 or 11 will pass the new threshold. 26 lists is the least number of lists running in an election since 1996 when Prime Minister Netanyahu was elected to his first term. Labor, United Arab List, Yesh Atid, UTJ, Meretz, Likud and Shas submitted 120 seats for this election; Bayit Yehudi submitted 110, Koolanu 33, Yisrael Beitenu 30 and Yachad 26.

6 – Week 9 Preview

Now that the final lists are in the polls will start to stabilize and the general election campaigns will start to kick into full gear. Next week’s average will prove to be interesting.

Candidates for Knesset Lists in English:

Candidates for Knesset Lists in English

Zionist Union – Labor + Livni Movement Party (Currently polling 1st 25.2 seats) – אמת

1 Isaac Herzog

2 Tzipi Livni

3 Shelly Yachimovitch

4 Stav Shafir

5 Isaac Shmueli

6 Omer Bar-Lev

7 Yechiel Bar

8 Amir Peretz

9 Merav Michaeli

10 Eitan Cabel

11 Manuel Trachtenberg

12 Erel Margalit

13 Mickey Rosenthal

14 Revital Swed

15 Daniel Atar

16 Yoel Hasson

17Bahlul Zuhair

18Eitan Brushi

19 Michal Biran

20 Nachman Shai

21 Svetlova Kasnia

22 Vrabin Nahmias

23 Yosef Yonah

24 Eyal Ben-Reuven

25Yael Cohen Paran

26 Saleh Saad

27 Leah Fadida

28 Robert Tibayev

29 Moshe Mizrahi

30 Eldad Yaniv

Likud (Currently Polling 2nd 24.4 seats) – מחל

1 Benjamin Netanyahu

2 Gilad Erdan

3 Yuli Edelstein

4 Yisrael Katz

5 Miri Regev

6 Silvan Shalom

7 Boogie Ya’alon

8 Zeev Elkin

9 Danny Danon

10 Yariv Levin

11 Benny Begin

12 Tzachi Hanegbi

13 Yuval Steinitz

14 Gila Gamliel

15 Ofir Akonis

16 David Bitan

17 Chaim Katz

18 Jacky Levi

19 Yoav Kish

20 Tzipi Hotoveli

21David Amsalem

22 Zohar Makhlouf

23 Anat Berko

24 Ayub Kara

25 Nava Boker

26 Avi Dichter

27 Abraham Nagosa

28 Nurit Koren

29 Yaron Mazuz

30 Oren Hazan

Bayit Yehudi (Currently polling 3rd 14.7 seats) - טב

1 Naftali Bennett

2 Uri Ariel

3 Ayelet Shaked

4 Eli Ben-Dahan

5 Nissan Slomiansky

6 Uri Orbach

7 Yinon Magal

8 Moti Yogev

9 Bezalel Smotrich

10 Shuli Mualem

11 Avi Wortzman

12 Nir Orbach

13 Avi Rontzky

14 Orit Struck

15 Anat Roth

16 Ronen Shoval

17 Avi Boaron

18 Nachi Eyal

19 Moshe Solomon

20 Yehudit Shilat

United Arab List (Currently polling  4th 12 seats) – וםד

1 Ayman Odeh

2 Massoud Ghanaym

3 Jamal Zahalka

4 Ahmed Tibi

5 Aida Touma-Suleiman

6 Haj Yahya Abd al-Hakim

7 Haneen Zoubi

8 Dov Khenin

9 Taleb Abu Arar

10 Jabarin Joseph

11 Basel Ghattas

12 Saadia Osama

13 Abdullah Abu Marouf

14 Azbargh Juma

15 H’romi Said

Yesh Atid (Currently polling 5th 9.4 seats) – פה

1 Yair Lapid

2 Shai Piron

3 Yael German

4 Meir Cohen

5 Yaakov Perry

6 Ofer Shelach

7 Chaim Yellin

8 Karin Elharar

9 Yoel Razvozov

10 Aliza Lavie

11 Mickey Levy

12 Elazar Stern

Koolanu (Currently polling 6th 7.7 seats) – כ

1 Moshe Kahlon

2 Yoav Galant

3 Eli Elalouf

4 Michael Oren

5 Rachel Azaria

6 Tali Floskob

7 Yifat Biton

8 Eliahu Cohen

9 Roei Volkmann

10 Merav Ben Ari

UTJ/Yahadut HaTorah (Currently polling 7th 7.1 seats) – ג

1 Yaakov Litzman

2 Moshe Gafni

3 Meir Porush

4 Uri Maklev

5 Eliezer Moses

6 Yisrael Eichler

7 Yaakov Asher

8 Eliezer Sorotzkin

Shas (Currently polling 7th 7.1 seats) – שס

1 Aryeh Deri

2 Yitzack Cohen

3 Meshulam Nahari

4 Yakov Margi

5 David Azoulay

6 Yoav Ben-Zur

7 Yitzhak Vaknin

8 Avraham Michaeli

Yisrael Beitenu (Currently polling 9th 5.4 seats) – ל

1 Avigdor Lieberman

2 Orly Levy

3 Sofa Landver

4 Ilan Shohat

5 Gal Sharon

6 Hamad Amar

7 Robert Iltov

Meretz (Currently polling 10th 5.3 seats) – מרץ

1 Zahava Gal-On

2 Ilan Gilon

3 Isawiyya Ferig

4 Michal Rosin

5 Tamar Zandberg

6 Mossi Raz

Yachad (Currently polling 11th 3.3 seats) – זך

1 Eli Yishai

2 Yoni Chetboun

3 Aish Makhlouf

4 Baruch Marzel

5 Sasson Trbolsi

Smith conducted a poll that was broadcast by Reshet Bet Radio on Jan 30 2015. The poll was conducted the day before.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

26 [20] Zionist Union (Labor-Livni)
26 [18] Likud
15 [11] Bayit Yehudi
12 [11] United Arab List
09 [10] Shas
08 [20] Yesh Atid
07 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
07 [02] Koolanu (Kahlon+Kadima)
05 [13] Yisrael Beitenu
05 [06] Meretz
00 [02] Yachad (Yishai+Chetboun) – Before Marzel joined

69 [61] Right-Religious-Kahlon (Parties that have not ruled out a BB coalition)
51 [59] Center-Left-Arab (Parties that have ruled out a BB coalition)

* Note: Kadima Leader Akrem Hasoon who replaced Shaul Mofaz is now running on the Kahlon list.

Teleseker (TNS) conducted a poll that was published by Walla on Jan 30 2015.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

27 [18] Likud
26 [20] Zionist Union (Labor-Livni)
12 [11] Bayit Yehudi
12 [11] United Arab List
08 [20] Yesh Atid
07 [10] Shas
07 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
07 [02] Koolanu (Kahlon+Kadima)
06 [13] Yisrael Beitenu
04 [06] Meretz
04 [02] Yachad (Yishai+Chetboun+Marzel)

70 [61] Right-Religious-Kahlon (Parties that have not ruled out a BB coalition)
50 [59] Center-Left-Arab (Parties that have ruled out a BB coalition)

* Note: Kadima Leader Akrem Hasoon who replaced Shaul Mofaz is now running on the Kahlon list.

Smith conducted a poll that was published by Globes on Jan 29 2015.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

25 [20] Zionist Union (Labor-Livni)
24 [18] Likud
16 [11] Bayit Yehudi
12 [11] United Arab List
09 [20] Yesh Atid
08 [10] Shas
08 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
08 [02] Koolanu (Kahlon+Kadima)
05 [13] Yisrael Beitenu
05 [06] Meretz
00 [02] Ha’am Itanu

69 [61] Right-Religious-Kahlon (Parties that have not ruled out a BB coalition)
51 [59] Center-Left-Arab (Parties that have ruled out a BB coalition)

* Note: Kadima Leader Akrem Hasoon who replaced Shaul Mofaz is now running on the Kahlon list.

Panels conducted a poll that was pre-published by Maariv on Jan 29 2015.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

25 [18] Likud
24 [20] Zionist Union (Labor-Livni)
14 [11] Bayit Yehudi
12 [11] United Arab List
11 [20] Yesh Atid
08 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
08 [02] Koolanu (Kahlon+Kadima)
07 [10] Shas
06 [06] Meretz
05 [13] Yisrael Beitenu
00 [02] Ha’am Itanu

67 [61] Right-Religious-Kahlon (Parties that have not ruled out a BB coalition)
53 [59] Center-Left-Arab (Parties that have ruled out a BB coalition)

* Note: Kadima Leader Akrem Hasoon who replaced Shaul Mofaz is now running on the Kahlon list.

Teleseker conducted a poll that was broadcast by Channel 1 on Jan 29 2015.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

27 [18] Likud
26 [20] Zionist Union (Labor-Livni)
14 [11] Bayit Yehudi
12 [11] United Arab List
08 [20] Yesh Atid
08 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
07 [13] Yisrael Beitenu
07 [10] Shas
06 [02] Koolanu (Kahlon+Kadima)
05 [06] Meretz
00 [02] Ha’am Itanu

69 [61] Right-Religious-Kahlon (Parties that have not ruled out a BB coalition)
51 [59] Center-Left-Arab (Parties that have ruled out a BB coalition)

* Note: Kadima Leader Akram Hasoon who replaced Shaul Mofaz is now running on the Kahlon list.

Dialog (Panel Midgam Project) conducted a poll of 869 people with a 3.3% margin of error that was broadcast by Channel 10 on Jan 28 2015. The poll was conducted the day before.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

25 [20] Zionist Union (Labor-Livni)
23 [18] Likud
16 [10] Bayit Yehudi
12 [11] United Arab List
10 [20] Yesh Atid
09 [00] Koolanu (Kahlon)
06 [10] Shas
06 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
05 [06] Meretz
04 [13] Yisrael Beitenu
04 [03] Ha’am Itanu
00 [02] Kadima – No longer running in Election

68 [61] Right-Religious-Kahlon (Parties that have not ruled out a BB coalition)
52 [59] Center-Left-Arab (Parties that have ruled out a BB coalition)

Additional Questions:

Who is most suited to be PM?

44% Netanyahu, 32% Herzog, 25% Don’t know

Likud, Bayit Yehudi, Koolanu, Shas, UTJ, Yisrael Beitenu and Yishai voters chose Netanyahu over Herzog.

Zionist Union, United Arab List, Yesh Atid and Meretz voters chose Herzog.

Interesting stat: Shas voters chose Netanyahu 44% over Herzog 4%.

Does Eli Ochana addition to Bayit Yehudi list help the party?

64% No, 26% Don’t Know, 11% Yes.

Among Bayit Yehudi voters: 

48% No, 28% Don’t Know, 24% Yes.

 

Maagar Mochot conducted a poll that was broadcast by Kol HaRamah Radio on Jan 27 2015.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

24 [20] Labor-Livni

22 [18] Likud

16 [11] Bayit Yehudi

12 [11] United Arab List

11 [20] Yesh Atid

09 [00] Koolanu (Kahlon)

06 [10] Shas

06 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

06 [06] Meretz

04 [13] Yisrael Beitenu

04 [02] Ha’am Itanu

00 [02] Kadima – No longer running in Election

 

67 [61] Right-Religious-Kahlon (Parties that have not ruled out a BB coalition)

53 [59] Center-Left-Arab (Parties that have ruled out a BB coalition)

Panels conducted a poll of 536 people with a 4.5% margin of error that was broadcast by Knesset Channel 99 on Jan 27 2015. The poll was conducted the day before.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

25 [20] Labor-Livni

23 [18] Likud

15 [11] Bayit Yehudi

12 [11] United Arab List

11 [20] Yesh Atid

08 [00] Koolanu (Kahlon)

07 [10] Shas

07 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

06 [13] Yisrael Beitenu

06 [06] Meretz

00 [02] Ha’am Itanu – under 3.25% threshold

00 [02] Kadima – No longer running in Election

 

66 [61] Right-Religious-Kahlon (Parties that have not ruled out a BB coalition)

54 [59] Center-Left-Arab (Parties that have ruled out a BB coalition)

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