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Kantar Poll: Likud 26, Gantz 16, Lieberman 15, Golan 12, Lapid 11; Scenario Poll: Bennett 25, Likud 23, Eizenkot-Gantz-Lapid 22

March 4, 2025

Who is more suitable to serve as Prime Minister?

40% Netanyahu, 36% other answers, 24% Lapid
38% Netanyahu, 36% other answers, 26% Gantz
38% Netanyahu, 32% Eisenkot, 30% other answers
39% Bennett, 35% Netanyahu, 26% other answers

Snap Analysis: The latest Kantar Poll follows the same trend as polls conducted by Panels, Midgam, Maagar Mochot and Smith. It is quite interesting to see that a joint party of Eisenkot-Gantz-Lapid would only win 22 seats and finish in third place. In the last elections, Lapid won 24 seats and Gantz 12, but following the Saar split, the two parties now hold a combined 32 seats. Additionally, in this scenario Bennett can form a 63-seat coalition with Eisenkot-Golan-Lieberman, without Raam.

Comment

KnessetJeremy Poll Avg: Likud 23.5, Gantz 17.2, Lieberman 15, Golan 12.5, Lapid 12.4; Scenario Polls: Bennett Party 25-23, Likud 23-20

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March 3, 2025

The last major event was the departure of Otzma from the coalition on January 19. Since then, nine public polls have been conducted and released by Panels, Midgam, Maagar Mochot and Smith. Below is a table comparing each party’s current seats to the projected seats based on an average of the nine polls. Additionally, there is a high and a low to provide additional context for the six-week period.

The most notable trends are that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has no interest in announcing snap elections due to the decline of his coalition and the continued decline of Yesh Atid at the expense of other opposition parties.

Party	Current Seats	Projected Seats	9-Poll-Avg	High	Low
Likud	32	24	23.5	26	21
National Unity	8	17	17.2	19	16
Yisrael Beitenu	6	15	15	16	12
Democrats (Labor)	4	13	12.5	14	11
Yesh Atid	24	13	12.4	14	8
Shas	11	9	9.3	10	9
Otzma Yehudit	7	8	8.4	9	7
UTJ	7	7	7.1	8	7
Hadash-Taal	5	5	5.3	6	5
Raam	5	5	4.8	6	4
Religious Zionist	6	4	4.2	5	4
Balad	0	0	1.54%	2.40%	1%
New Hope	4	0	1.19%	2%	0.40%
Noam	1	0	–	–	–
Idan Roll Party	*0	0	–	–	–

Scenario Polls:

Midgam’s latest scenario poll has Naftali Bennett’s party with 23 seats – a tie for the top spot with Netanyahu’s Likud. Golan finishes in 3rd place with 12 seats, Gantz drops to fourth place with 11 seats and Lapid wins only 10 seats. In this scenario, Smotrich’s party falls below the threshold.

Panels latest scenario poll has Naftali Bennett’s party with 25 seats compared to 20 seats for Netanyahu’s Likud. Lieberman and Golan are tied with ten each. Lapid, Gantz and Deri are all tied with nine seats each.

It seems that if the former prime minister chooses to run, he will be considered the leading candidate for the current prime minister. A deeper dive into the scenario matching survey shows that Bennett is the only potential candidate who would run head-to-head against Netanyahu and win. Additionally, compared to his competition, Bennett is making the biggest dent in the cross-tabulations of right-wing and coalition voters.

Midgam’s most recent Prime Minister Suitability polling:
38% Netanyahu, 32% Neither, 26% Lapid, 4% Don’t Know
35% Netanyahu, 32% Neither, 27% Gantz, 6% Don’t Know
35% Netanyahu, 31% Eisenkot, 27% Neither, 7% Don’t Know
39% Bennett, 34% Netanyahu, 21% Neither, 6% Don’t Know

Selected Crosstab Breakdown of Lapid/Gantz/Eisenkot/Bennett in matchups vs Netanyahu

Among Right Wing Voters: 29% Bennett, 19% Gantz, 14% Eisenkot, 9% Lapid

Among Coalition Voters: 19% Bennett, 14% Gantz, 8% Eisenkot, 4% Lapid

Bottom Line: The worse it looks for the coalition parties in the polls, the more likely it is that the various sides will compromise ahead of the budget deadline at the end of the month.

Jeremy’s Knesset Insider Your Israeli Knesset Center – Polls & Analysis is back.
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Jeremy’s Knesset Insider aka KnessetJeremy is Back

Filed under: Knesset — 11 Comments

March 2, 2025

This week we will be less than 600 days away from the next scheduled election. Based on your feedback, I will return to posting polls on a weekly basis and analyzing from time to time. As we get closer to the next election, my posts will become more frequent, especially if there is a snap election.

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Polling for 26th Knesset Election

Filed under: Knesset, Other — 38 Comments

February 7, 2025

The Elections for the 25th Knesset were held on 1 November 2022. The inauguration of the 25th Knesset took place on 15 November 2022. On 3 May 2023 it was decided that the elections for the 26th Knesset would be held on 27 October 2026.

Only six of the last 24 Knessets completed a full term. The last instance of a full term was the 11th Knesset, and elections were held in 1988. In recent years, my policy has been to not share polls from the term and wait until after the election. There are many reasons for this policy. With the scheduled election now 627 days away, I am reassessing my policy. Recently, I have had many requests asking me to return to publishing both polls and analyses.

Before I make a final decision, I want to hear from you, my subscribers and readers, what you think.

-KnessetJeremy

Comment

Election Scorecard

Filed under: Knesset, Weekly Poll Avg — 3 Comments

November 12, 2022

In the table below I measure the gap between the Knesset Jeremy Average (4 days before election), the exit polls of Channels 11,12,13&14 and the final election results.

Party	Election Results	Knesset Jeremy AVG	Gap
Likud	32	31	1
Yesh Atid	24	25	-1
Religious Zionist	14	14	0
National Unity	12	11	1
Shas	11	9	2
UTJ	7	7	0
Yisrael Beitenu	6	6	0
Raam	5	4	1
Hadash-Taal	5	4	1
Labor	4	5	-1
Meretz	0	4	-4

Party	Election Results	Exit Poll 11	Gap
Likud	32	30	2
Yesh Atid	24	24	0
Religious Zionist	14	14	0
National Unity	12	11	1
Shas	11	10	1
UTJ	7	7	0
Yisrael Beitenu	6	4	2
Raam	5	5	0
Hadash-Taal	5	4	1
Labor	4	6	-2
Meretz	0	5	-5

Party	Election Results	Exit Poll 12	Gap
Likud	32	31	1
Yesh Atid	24	24	0
Religious Zionist	14	14	0
National Unity	12	12	0
Shas	11	10	1
UTJ	7	7	0
Yisrael Beitenu	6	5	1
Raam	5	4	1
Hadash-Taal	5	4	1
Labor	4	5	-1
Meretz	0	4	-4

Party	Election Results	Exit Poll 13	Gap
Likud	32	30	2
Yesh Atid	24	22	2
Religious Zionist	14	15	-1
National Unity	12	13	-1
Shas	11	10	1
UTJ	7	7	0
Yisrael Beitenu	6	5	1
Raam	5	5	0
Hadash-Taal	5	4	1
Labor	4	5	-1
Meretz	0	4	-4

Party	Election Results	Exit Poll 14	Gap
Likud	32	31	1
Yesh Atid	24	23	1
Religious Zionist	14	12	2
National Unity	12	11	1
Shas	11	10	1
UTJ	7	8	-1
Yisrael Beitenu	6	6	0
Raam	5	4	1
Hadash-Taal	5	4	1
Labor	4	6	-2
Meretz	0	5	-5

Comment

Last KnessetJeremy Polling Average: Likud 31.1, Yesh Atid 24.9, Smotrich 14, Gantz 11.3, Shas 8.6, UTJ 6.8

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October 29, 2022

The last average compares three different polling averages. Last week’s average is compared to an average of the 15 polls released during the Monday-Friday period of October 24 – October 28. The most recent average is a 7 poll average consisting of the last seven polls released during the last two days before the polling ban. These represent the last polls conducted by the seven polling companies that have released public polls during this cycle: Maagar Mochot, Direct Polls, Kantar, Panels, Smith, Midgam and Kamil Fuchs.

Let’s take a look at the trends and momentum leading up to Election Day: Likud is dropping from 31.6 to 31.5 to 31.1. Yesh Atid is going up from 24.3 to 24.6 to 24.9. Smotrich is rising 13.4 to 13.6 to 14. Gantz appears to be dropping, as he went from 11.6 to 11.7 to 11.3. Shas’s stock is increasing from 8.1 to 8.5 to 8.6. UTJ is losing steam with 7 to 6.9 to 6.8. Yisrael Beitenu is dropping from 6.3 to 5.7. Labor is growing from 5 to 5.3. Meretz is falling from 4.7 to 4.5 to 4.3. Hadash-Taal & Raam both remain steady at 4. Both Bayit Yehudi & Balad who are under the threshold are making gains as we reach the homestretch.

As for the blocs so Bibi’s bloc has hit 60.5, that rounds up to 61, yet the downward trend of Likud & UTJ makes it very likely that it falls back to 60. Lapid’s bloc with Hadash-Taal hits 59.5, yet if one of the parties falls under the threshold it will become more complicated to block Netanyahu’s bloc. Lapid’s bloc without Hadash-Taal of 55.5 is far short from being able to form a coalition.

Party	Seats	7-Poll Avg	15 Poll AVG	Last Week
Likud	31	31.1	31.5	31.6
Yesh Atid	25	24.9	24.6	24.3
Religious Zionist	14	14	13.6	13.4
National Unity	11	11.3	11.7	11.6
Shas	9	8.6	8.5	8.1
UTJ	7	6.8	6.9	7
Yisrael Beitenu	6	5.7	5.7	6.3
Labor	5	5.3	5	5
Meretz	4	4.3	4.5	4.7
Hadash-Taal	4	4	4	4
Raam	4	4	4	4

Party	Seats	7-Poll Avg	15 Poll AVG	Last Week
Bayit Yehudi	2.3	1.9	1.9	1.8
Balad	2.3	1.9	1.9	1.7
Zalika Party	1.1	0.9	0.9	1.1
Kara Party	0.8	0.7	0.7	0.5
Burning Youth	0.7	0.6	0.6	0.4

Party	Seats	7-Poll Avg	15 Poll AVG	Last Week
Netanyahu Bloc	61	60.5	60.5	60.1
Lapid w/H-T	54	55.5	55.5	59.9
Lapid w/o H-T	59	59.5	59.5	55.9

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The Last 4 Polls

Filed under: Knesset, Polls — 1 Comment

Below are the last four polls that were released yesterday, before the deadline for publishing or broadcasting polls.

The next post will compare a 7-Poll Average from the polls released during the last two days of polling to a 15-Poll Average of the polls released throughout the week to last week’s average.

Poll 1: Panels conducted a poll with a 3.1% margin of error that was published by Maariv on October 28 2022.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

31 [29] Likud (Netanyahu)

25 [17] Yesh Atid (Lapid)

14 [07] Religious Zionist (Smotrich)

12 [16] National Unity (Gantz)

09 [09] Shas (Deri)

06 [07] United Torah Judaism (Gafni)

06 [07] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)

05 [07] Labor (Michaeli)

04 [06] Meretz (Galon)

04 [05] Hadash-Taal (Odeh)

04 [04] Ra’am (Abbas)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

2.1% [04] Bayit Yehudi (Shaked)

1.8% [01] Balad (Abu Shachada)

1.2% [–] New Economy (Zalika)

0.7% [01] Free Economy (Kara)

0.3% [–] Burning Youth (Muchtar)

Poll 2: Smith conducted a poll that was broadcast by Galai Yisrael Radio on October 28 2022.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

31 [29] Likud (Netanyahu)

25 [17] Yesh Atid (Lapid)

14 [07] Religious Zionist (Smotrich)

11 [16] National Unity (Gantz)

09 [09] Shas (Deri)

07 [07] United Torah Judaism (Gafni)

06 [07] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)

05 [07] Labor (Michaeli)

04 [06] Meretz (Galon)

04 [05] Hadash-Taal (Odeh)

04 [04] Ra’am (Abbas)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

2.1% [01] Balad (Abu Shachada)

2% [04] Bayit Yehudi (Shaked)

1% [01] Free Economy (Kara)

0.9% [–] New Economy (Zalika)

0.4% [–] Burning Youth (Muchtar)

Poll 3: Midgam conducted a poll of 1007 with a 3.1% margin of error that was broadcast by Channel 12 on October 28 2022.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

31 [29] Likud (Netanyahu)

25 [17] Yesh Atid (Lapid)

14 [07] Religious Zionist (Smotrich)

11 [16] National Unity (Gantz)

08 [09] Shas (Deri)

07 [07] United Torah Judaism (Gafni)

06 [07] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)

05 [07] Labor (Michaeli)

05 [06] Meretz (Galon)

04 [05] Hadash-Taal (Odeh)

04 [04] Ra’am (Abbas)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

1.6% [01] Balad (Abu Shachada)

1.5% [04] Bayit Yehudi (Shaked)

0.9% [–] New Economy (Zalika)

0.6% [01] Free Economy (Kara)

0.6% [–] Burning Youth (Muchtar)

0.6% [–] Green Leaf

0.4% [–] Eli Avidar Party

Poll 4: Kamil Fuchs conducted a poll of 801 with a 3.5% margin of error that was broadcast by Channel 13 on October 28 2022.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

30 [29] Likud (Netanyahu)

27 [17] Yesh Atid (Lapid)

15 [07] Religious Zionist (Smotrich)

10 [16] National Unity (Gantz)

08 [09] Shas (Deri)

07 [07] United Torah Judaism (Gafni)

06 [07] Labor (Michaeli)

05 [07] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)

04 [06] Meretz (Galon)

04 [05] Hadash-Taal (Odeh)

04 [04] Ra’am (Abbas)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

2.75% [01] Balad (Abu Shachada)

2% [04] Bayit Yehudi (Shaked)

0.9% [–] 30/40 (Weinstein)

0.7% [–] Burning Youth (Muchtar)

0.4% [01] Free Economy (Kara)

0.2% [–] New Economy (Zalika)

Comment

11 Polls from Monday-Thursday

Filed under: Knesset, Polls — 2 Comments

October 28, 2022

Polls must be published or broadcast by midnight Israeli time between Friday and Saturday.

I will publish the last polls and polling average on Saturday evening.

Below are the 11 polls that were published or broadcast over the last four days from Monday October 24 – Thursday October 27.

Poll 1: Kantar conducted a poll of 752 people with a 3.6% margin of error that was broadcast by Channel 11 on October 24 2022.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

31 [29] Likud (Netanyahu)

24 [17] Yesh Atid (Lapid)

13 [07] Religious Zionist (Smotrich)

12 [16] National Unity (Gantz)

09 [09] Shas (Deri)

07 [07] United Torah Judaism (Gafni)

06 [07] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)

05 [07] Labor (Michaeli)

05 [06] Meretz (Galon)

04 [05] Hadash-Taal (Odeh)

04 [04] Ra’am (Abbas)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

1.8% [01] Balad (Abu Shachada)

1.6% [04] Bayit Yehudi (Shaked)

1.5% [–] New Economy (Zalika)

1.2% [–] Burning Youth (Muchtar)

0.7% [01] Free Economy (Kara)

0.7% [–] Eli Avidar Party

0.2% [–] Green Leaf

0.2% [–] Tzomet

Poll 2: Panels conducted a poll that was published by Maariv on October 24 2022.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

32 [29] Likud (Netanyahu)

24 [17] Yesh Atid (Lapid)

14 [07] Religious Zionist (Smotrich)

12 [16] National Unity (Gantz)

08 [09] Shas (Deri)

07 [07] United Torah Judaism (Gafni)

06 [07] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)

05 [07] Labor (Michaeli)

05 [06] Meretz (Galon)

04 [05] Hadash-Taal (Odeh)

04 [04] Ra’am (Abbas)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

1.7% [01] Balad (Abu Shachada)

1.6% [04] Bayit Yehudi (Shaked)

0.7% [–] New Economy (Zalika)

0.6% [01] Free Economy (Kara)

0.1% [–] Burning Youth (Muchtar)

0.1% [–] Tzomet

Poll 3: Direct Polls conducted a poll of 1084 people with a 4.2% margin of error that was broadcast by Channel 14 on October 24 2022.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

34 [29] Likud (Netanyahu)

23 [17] Yesh Atid (Lapid)

12 [07] Religious Zionist (Smotrich)

12 [16] National Unity (Gantz)

09 [09] Shas (Deri)

07 [07] United Torah Judaism (Gafni)

06 [07] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)

05 [07] Labor (Michaeli)

04 [06] Meretz (Galon)

04 [05] Hadash-Taal (Odeh)

04 [04] Ra’am (Abbas)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

2% [01] Balad (Abu Shachada)

1.9% [04] Bayit Yehudi (Shaked)

0.4% [01] Free Economy (Kara)

0.2% [–] New Economy (Zalika)

0.2% [–] Burning Youth (Muchtar)

Poll 4: Midgam conducted a poll of 503 people with a 4.4% margin of error that was broadcast by Channel 12 on October 24 2022.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

32 [29] Likud (Netanyahu)

24 [17] Yesh Atid (Lapid)

13 [07] Religious Zionist (Smotrich)

13 [16] National Unity (Gantz)

08 [09] Shas (Deri)

07 [07] United Torah Judaism (Gafni)

05 [07] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)

05 [07] Labor (Michaeli)

05 [06] Meretz (Galon)

04 [05] Hadash-Taal (Odeh)

04 [04] Ra’am (Abbas)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

2% [01] Balad (Abu Shachada)

1.8% [04] Bayit Yehudi (Shaked)

1.4% [–] Eli Avidar Party

0.6% [–] Burning Youth (Muchtar)

0.4% [–] New Economy (Zalika)

0.4% [01] Free Economy (Kara)

0.2% [–] Green Leaf

0.1% [–] Tzomet

Poll 5: Panels conducted a poll of 709 people with a 3.7% margin of error that was broadcast by the Knesset Channel 99 on October 25 2022.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

31 [29] Likud (Netanyahu)

24 [17] Yesh Atid (Lapid)

14 [07] Religious Zionist (Smotrich)

12 [16] National Unity (Gantz)

08 [09] Shas (Deri)

07 [07] United Torah Judaism (Gafni)

06 [07] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)

05 [07] Labor (Michaeli)

05 [06] Meretz (Galon)

04 [05] Hadash-Taal (Odeh)

04 [04] Ra’am (Abbas)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

2.1% [01] Balad (Abu Shachada)

1.8% [04] Bayit Yehudi (Shaked)

1.0% [–] New Economy (Zalika)

Poll 6: Kamil Fuchs conducted a poll of 801 people with a 3.5% margin of error that was broadcast by Channel 13 on October 25 2022.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

31 [29] Likud (Netanyahu)

27 [17] Yesh Atid (Lapid)

14 [07] Religious Zionist (Smotrich)

11 [16] National Unity (Gantz)

08 [09] Shas (Deri)

07 [07] United Torah Judaism (Gafni)

06 [07] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)

04 [07] Labor (Michaeli)

04 [06] Meretz (Galon)

04 [05] Hadash-Taal (Odeh)

04 [04] Ra’am (Abbas)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

2.3% [01] Balad (Abu Shachada)

2.2% [04] Bayit Yehudi (Shaked)

1.4% [–] New Economy (Zalika)

1.3% [01] Free Economy (Kara)

1% [–] Burning Youth (Muchtar)

Poll 7: Midgam conducted a poll of 505 people with a 4.4% margin of error that was broadcast by Army Radio on October 26 2022.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

31 [29] Likud (Netanyahu)

25 [17] Yesh Atid (Lapid)

13 [07] Religious Zionist (Smotrich)

12 [16] National Unity (Gantz)

08 [09] Shas (Deri)

07 [07] United Torah Judaism (Gafni)

06 [07] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)

05 [07] Labor (Michaeli)

05 [06] Meretz (Galon)

04 [05] Hadash-Taal (Odeh)

04 [04] Ra’am (Abbas)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

1.8% [04] Bayit Yehudi (Shaked)

1.4% [01] Balad (Abu Shachada)

1.3% [–] New Economy (Zalika)

Poll 8: Smith conducted a poll of 700 people with a 3.8% margin of error that was broadcast by Galai Yisrael Radio on October 26 2022.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

32 [29] Likud (Netanyahu)

25 [17] Yesh Atid (Lapid)

13 [07] Religious Zionist (Smotrich)

12 [16] National Unity (Gantz)

09 [09] Shas (Deri)

07 [07] United Torah Judaism (Gafni)

05 [07] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)

05 [07] Labor (Michaeli)

04 [06] Meretz (Galon)

04 [05] Hadash-Taal (Odeh)

04 [04] Ra’am (Abbas)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

1.8% [04] Bayit Yehudi (Shaked)

1.5% [–] New Economy (Zalika)

1.2% [01] Free Economy (Kara)

0.7% [–] Burning Youth (Muchtar)

Poll 9: Maagar Mochot conducted a poll of 1201 people with a 2.7% margin of error that was published by Yisrael Hayom on October 27 2022.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

30 [29] Likud (Netanyahu)

25 [17] Yesh Atid (Lapid)

15 [07] Religious Zionist (Smotrich)

11 [16] National Unity (Gantz)

09 [09] Shas (Deri)

07 [07] United Torah Judaism (Gafni)

06 [07] Labor (Michaeli)

05 [07] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)

04 [06] Meretz (Galon)

04 [05] Hadash-Taal (Odeh)

04 [04] Ra’am (Abbas)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

1.2% [04] Bayit Yehudi (Shaked)

1 % [01] Balad (Abu Shachada)

Poll 10: Direct Polls conducted a poll of 2385 people with a 1.8% margin of error that was broadcast by Channel 14 on October 27 2022.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

34 [29] Likud (Netanyahu)

23 [17] Yesh Atid (Lapid)

13 [16] National Unity (Gantz)

12 [07] Religious Zionist (Smotrich)

09 [09] Shas (Deri)

07 [07] United Torah Judaism (Gafni)

06 [07] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)

04 [07] Labor (Michaeli)

04 [06] Meretz (Galon)

04 [05] Hadash-Taal (Odeh)

04 [04] Ra’am (Abbas)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

2.1% [01] Balad (Abu Shachada)

1.9% [04] Bayit Yehudi (Shaked)

0.6% [01] Free Economy (Kara)

0.5% [–] New Economy (Zalika)

0.5% [–] Burning Youth (Muchtar)

0.1% [–] Eli Avidar Party

Poll 11: Kantar conducted a poll of 1301 people with a 2.7% margin of error that was broadcast by Channel 11 on October 27 2022.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

31 [29] Likud (Netanyahu)

24 [17] Yesh Atid (Lapid)

14 [07] Religious Zionist (Smotrich)

11 [16] National Unity (Gantz)

08 [09] Shas (Deri)

07 [07] United Torah Judaism (Gafni)

06 [07] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)

06 [07] Labor (Michaeli)

05 [06] Meretz (Galon)

04 [05] Hadash-Taal (Odeh)

04 [04] Ra’am (Abbas)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

2.2% [01] Balad (Abu Shachada)

2% [04] Bayit Yehudi (Shaked)

1.4% [–] New Economy (Zalika)

1.3% [–] Burning Youth (Muchtar)

0.9% [01] Free Economy (Kara)

0.5% [–] Eli Avidar Party

0.1% [–] Green Leaf

0% [–] Tzomet

Comment

9 Days to Election – KnessetJeremy Polling Average: Likud 31.6, Yesh Atid 24.3, Smotrich 13.4, Gantz 11.6, Shas 8.1, UTJ 7; Blocs Deadlocked

Filed under: Knesset, Weekly Poll Avg — 2 Comments

October 23, 2022

Smotrich made the most significant gain with a 0.6 jump. Liberman’s Yisrael Beitenu went up for the second straight week, this time by 0.3.

Likud dropped for the second consecutive week, this time by 0.5. Gantz also went down this week, this time by 0.3. Lapid’s Yesh Atid also lost 0.1.

Overall, we remain stuck at a 60-60 deadlock between the two blocs.

This week will be the last week that polls can be conducted and released. The polling blackout begins midnight between Friday and Saturday.

Party	Seats	This Week	Last Week	Gap
Likud	32	31.6	32.1	-0.5
Yesh Atid	24	24.3	24.4	-0.1
Religious Zionist	13	13.4	12.8	0.6
National Unity	12	11.6	11.9	-0.3
Shas	8	8.1	8.1	0
UTJ	7	7	7	0
Yisrael Beitenu	6	6.3	6	0.3
Labor	5	5	5	0
Meretz	5	4.7	4.7	0
Hadash-Taal	4	4	4	0
Raam	4	4	4	0

Party	Seats	This Week	Last Week	Gap
Bayit Yehudi	2.2	1.8	2.3	-0.5
Balad	2	1.7	1.4	0.3
Zalika Party	1.3	1.1	1	0.1
Kara Party	0.6	0.5	0.7	-0.2
Burning Youth	0.5	0.4	0.5	-0.1

Party	Seats	This Week	Last Week	Gap
Netanyahu Bloc	60	60.1	60	0.1
Lapid w/H-T	60	59.9	60	-0.1
Lapid w/o H-T	56	55.9	56	-0.1

Comment

7 Polls – 2 Weeks Out

Filed under: Knesset, Polls — Leave a comment

Kantar conducted a poll of 651 people with a 3.8% margin of error that was broadcast by Channel 11 on October 18 2022.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

31 [29] Likud (Netanyahu)

25 [17] Yesh Atid (Lapid)

14 [07] Religious Zionist (Smotrich)

11 [16] National Unity (Gantz)

08 [09] Shas (Deri)

07 [07] United Torah Judaism (Gafni)

07 [07] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)

05 [07] Labor (Michaeli)

04 [06] Meretz (Galon)

04 [05] Hadash-Taal (Odeh)

04 [04] Ra’am (Abbas)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

2% [01] Balad (Abu Shachada)

1.9% [04] Bayit Yehudi (Shaked)

1.8% [–] New Economy (Zalika)

The rest under 0.5%

Midgam conducted a poll of 510 people with a 4.4% margin of error that was broadcast by Channel 12 on October 18 2022.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

30 [29] Likud (Netanyahu)

25 [17] Yesh Atid (Lapid)

14 [07] Religious Zionist (Smotrich)

12 [16] National Unity (Gantz)

08 [09] Shas (Deri)

07 [07] United Torah Judaism (Gafni)

06 [07] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)

05 [07] Labor (Michaeli)

05 [06] Meretz (Galon)

04 [05] Hadash-Taal (Odeh)

04 [04] Ra’am (Abbas)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

1.7% [04] Bayit Yehudi (Shaked)

1.2% [01] Balad (Abu Shachada)

1.2% [–] New Economy (Zalika)

0.5% [01] Free Economy (Kara)

0.1% [–] Burning Youth (Muchtar)

0% [–] 30/40 (Weinstein)

0% [–] Green Leaf

Panels conducted a poll of 712 people with a 3.7% margin of error that was broadcast by the Knesset Channel 99 on October 19 2022.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

32 [29] Likud (Netanyahu)

24 [17] Yesh Atid (Lapid)

13 [07] Religious Zionist (Smotrich)

11 [16] National Unity (Gantz)

08 [09] Shas (Deri)

07 [07] United Torah Judaism (Gafni)

07 [07] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)

05 [07] Labor (Michaeli)

05 [06] Meretz (Galon)

04 [05] Hadash-Taal (Odeh)

04 [04] Ra’am (Abbas)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

1.9% [04] Bayit Yehudi (Shaked)

1.5% [–] New Economy (Zalika)

1.4% [01] Balad (Abu Shachada)

Others under 0.5%

Midgam conducted a poll of 507 people with a 4.4% margin of error that was broadcast by the Channel 12 on October 20 2022.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

31 [29] Likud (Netanyahu)

24 [17] Yesh Atid (Lapid)

14 [07] Religious Zionist (Smotrich)

11 [16] National Unity (Gantz)

08 [09] Shas (Deri)

07 [07] United Torah Judaism (Gafni)

06 [07] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)

06 [07] Labor (Michaeli)

05 [06] Meretz (Galon)

04 [05] Hadash-Taal (Odeh)

04 [04] Ra’am (Abbas)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

1.9% [04] Bayit Yehudi (Shaked)

1.3% [01] Balad (Abu Shachada)

0.5% [–] Burning Youth (Muchtar)

0.3% [–] New Economy (Zalika)

0.3% [01] Free Economy (Kara)

0.2% [–] 30/40 (Weinstein)

0% [–] Eli Avidar Party

0% [–] Green Leaf

Direct Polls conducted a poll of 847 people with a 4.2% margin of error that was broadcast by the Channel 14 on October 20 2022.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

34 [29] Likud (Netanyahu)

23 [17] Yesh Atid (Lapid)

13 [16] National Unity (Gantz)

12 [07] Religious Zionist (Smotrich)

09 [09] Shas (Deri)

07 [07] United Torah Judaism (Gafni)

06 [07] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)

04 [07] Labor (Michaeli)

04 [06] Meretz (Galon)

04 [05] Hadash-Taal (Odeh)

04 [04] Ra’am (Abbas)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

2.1% [01] Balad (Abu Shachada)

1.9% [04] Bayit Yehudi (Shaked)

0.7% [–] New Economy (Zalika)

0.5% [–] Burning Youth (Muchtar)

0.4% [01] Free Economy (Kara)

Kamil Fuchs conducted a poll of 801 people with a 3.5% margin of error that was broadcast by the Channel 13 on October 20 2022.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

32 [29] Likud (Netanyahu)

26 [17] Yesh Atid (Lapid)

13 [07] Religious Zionist (Smotrich)

11 [16] National Unity (Gantz)

08 [09] Shas (Deri)

07 [07] United Torah Judaism (Gafni)

05 [07] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)

05 [07] Labor (Michaeli)

05 [06] Meretz (Galon)

04 [05] Hadash-Taal (Odeh)

04 [04] Ra’am (Abbas)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

1.8% [04] Bayit Yehudi (Shaked)

1.4% [01] Balad (Abu Shachada)

1.4% [01] Free Economy (Kara)

1.1% [–] New Economy (Zalika)

Panels conducted a poll of 712 people with a 3.7% margin of error that was published by Maariv on October 21 2022.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

31 [29] Likud (Netanyahu)

23 [17] Yesh Atid (Lapid)

14 [07] Religious Zionist (Smotrich)

12 [16] National Unity (Gantz)

08 [09] Shas (Deri)

07 [07] United Torah Judaism (Gafni)

07 [07] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)

05 [07] Labor (Michaeli)

05 [06] Meretz (Galon)

04 [05] Hadash-Taal (Odeh)

04 [04] Ra’am (Abbas)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

1.8% [04] Bayit Yehudi (Shaked)

1.7% [01] Balad (Abu Shachada)

1.1% [–] New Economy (Zalika)

0.5% [01] Free Economy (Kara)

0.4% [–] Burning Youth (Muchtar)

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7 Polls – 2 Weeks Out

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