This week’s polling underscores Naftali Bennett’s emergence as the dominant alternative in the national leadership landscape. Voters increasingly identify Bennett as the most credible challenger, and in head-to-head prime-minister matchups he now performs almost on par with the incumbent, well ahead of all other contenders.

Issue Trends

This week’s polling cycle places leadership and economic sentiment squarely at the center of public opinion. In head-to-head matchups for prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu leads Naftali Bennett, yet both perform notably better than the rest of the field. Against Yair Lapid and Gadi Eisenkot, the “Don’t Know” category actually outperforms both challengers, underscoring significant voter hesitation about the current political bench beyond Netanyahu and Bennett.

Among opposition voters, Bennett emerges as the preferred leader, despite not holding a Knesset seat. His advantage over Eisenkot, Liberman, Lapid, and Golan signals both a vacuum in the elected opposition and the resonance of Bennett’s centrist-right positioning with voters searching for an alternative.

Policy sentiment is equally decisive. A clear majority opposes the government’s draft-exemption legislation, and most respondents say its primary purpose is to exempt most Haredim from service rather than increase enlistment. Meanwhile, nearly half say cost-of-living pressure will influence their next vote to the same extent as in 2022, while more than a third say it will play an even larger role, making it a dominant electoral issue moving forward.

Bloc Trends

Across nearly all polls, the Bennett bloc continues to outperform the Netanyahu bloc, reaffirming the competitive nature of the political landscape and the continuing erosion of automatic pro-Netanyahu support. Within the blocs, Avigdor Liberman and Yair Golan show remarkably stable ranges (9–11 seats), Lapid fluctuates more dramatically (4–10 seats), and Eisenkot shows modest, steady performance (5–8 seats). These dynamics illustrate the fluidity within Bennett’s bloc, with no single figure consolidating broad support beyond the leader.

Eyes on the Threshold

The threshold battles remain highly volatile. Benny Gantz fails to cross the electoral threshold in any survey, ranging from a high of 3 percent to a low of 1.2 percent. Bezalel Smotrich passes the threshold in only two polls, peaking at four seats but dropping to as low as 2 percent in others. Hendel has a high of four seats and a low of 1.6 percent, while Balad continues to hover below the threshold, polling between 2.8 percent and 1.3 percent. These margins underscore a crowded and unstable environment at the bottom of the political spectrum, with several parties at risk of wasting votes.

What to Expect Next

With the government budget now approved, political attention, and the polling that follows it, is expected to keep shifting heavily toward cost-of-living issues. In wake of budget talks in Knesset, inflation, wages, and consumer prices are likely to dominate the coming news cycle and voter sentiment.

The main highlight from this week’s four polls is the battle around the electoral threshold. Gantz and Smotrich each clear the threshold in one poll, while Miluimnikim and Balad remain below it in all surveys. This marks the fourth consecutive week in which Eisenkot fails to reach double digits in any poll. In the prime minister suitability questions, Bennett continues to stand out as Netanyahu’s strongest challenger in both head-to-head matchups and overall rankings.

The Bennett bloc continues to show strong upward momentum, reaching as high as 62 seats in the Maariv poll and 58–59 seats in three other surveys, with the Filber poll standing out as a clear outlier. With the exception of Filber, the bloc consistently polls at or above 58 seats, indicating solid structural support across different polling methods and samples.

The Netanyahu bloc receives 48–52 seats in four of the polls. Excluding the Filber survey, the bloc appears stuck at roughly 50–52 seats, showing no signs of upward movement.

The Arab bloc remains the most stable of all, with minimal variation—consistently between 9 and 11 seats.

A particularly notable data point appears in the Maariv poll, where Bennett’s party ties Likud. Historically, when Bennett’s party draws even with or surpasses Likud, his bloc tends to cross the 61-seat threshold.

Eyes on the threshold: Smotrich crossed the electoral threshold in two of the six polls (Maagar Mochot and Filber), while Gantz’s Blue & White passed in just one (Tatika). Balad and Hendel’s Miluimnikim failed to cross in any poll.

Bloc Trends: Bloc alignments remained unchanged from last week in the Kantar, Midgam, Filber, and Tatika polls. The Bennett Bloc gained two seats overall, rising from 59 to 61, driven by Bennett 2026’s increase from 19 to 21 seats. The party added two seats in the Tatika and one in the Filber poll.

This week, the Knesset returned from its summer recess and opened its fourth year of work. The coalition faces several major challenges in the Winter Session, including resolving the Haredi Draft Bill, passing a state budget, and advancing legislation to split the powers of the Attorney General.

The Opposition will note on Monday that while the Knesset will officially mark one year before the scheduled elections on 27 October 2026, it appears unlikely that the government will last that long. The question remains not if, but when the coalition will fall.

With Yossi Cohen dropping out and Yoaz Hendel officially announcing his candidacy, scenario polling has shifted to several potential developments: the possible resurrection of the Joint Arab List, a renewed Smotrich–Ben Gvir alliance, and a large-scale opposition merger. Filber and Direct Polls continue to show the coalition with a clear majority, while other pollsters show the opposition ahead but still short of a majority. Since the Eisenkot–Gantz split, the Arab parties have consistently held the balance of power in most polls.

In head-to-head matchups, Bennett remains Netanyahu’s main challenger. Among coalition voters, Bennett is also viewed as the preferred candidate to lead the bloc against Netanyahu. Gantz failed to cross the electoral threshold in five of the six polls, while Hendel’s Miluimnikim party did not pass in any of the five polls that included it and was omitted entirely from one.

Note #1: Percentages indicate below the 3.25% threshold.

Note #2: A Channel 12 scenario poll found that a Joint List of Arab parties would win 11 seats instead of 10, and a joint list of Ben Gvir and Smotrich would win 9 seats instead of 8 for Ben Gvir alone.

Note #3: Another Channel 12 scenario poll showed that an Opposition list combining Bennett, Lieberman, Lapid, Gantz, and Eisenkot would receive 47 seats, compared to 27 for Likud, 12 for the Democrats, 9 for Shas, and 8 for Otzma. The overall bloc balance would remain unchanged.

Note #4: A Maariv scenario poll found that if the Arab parties run together, they would win 12 seats instead of 11. Otzma would also gain one seat, while Likud and Lieberman would each lose one. As a result, the Arab Bloc rises from 11 to 12 seats, and the Bennett Bloc drops from 59 to 58.

Prime Minister Suitability (Midgam/Channel 12)

Coalition Voters – Who Should Lead the Anti-Netanyahu Bloc? (Midgam/Channel 12)

I was called up to reserve duty again so I will have to post the analysis next week.
For now – here are the weekly polls with some raw data.

Stats

Baseline Polls

Scenarios

Additional Questions:

News Recap

• The political crisis continues, with Shas and UTJ still outside the government.
• Sep 2: A brief third special session plenum was held as Knesset silence ended.
• Sep 3: Most committees resumed work, including a hearing on the Haredi Draft Bill in the Defense & Foreign Affairs Committee.
• Sep 4: Eisenkot called on Gantz to drop out if he remains below the electoral threshold in the polls.

How It Played Out in the Polls

• Bennett remains the leading contender against Netanyahu in both Knesset seats and Prime Minister suitability.
• When running separately, Eisenkot, Cohen, and the Reservists generally act as spoilers, usually remaining in the single digits.
• Benny Gantz’s Blue & White party is at an all-time low for the 25th Knesset, reaching a maximum of four seats and failing to pass the electoral threshold in five of the 12 polls this week.
• Smotrich fails to pass the threshold in three polls, negatively affecting the Netanyahu bloc’s numbers.
• This week, both Lapid and Eisenkot fail to pass the threshold in one poll each.

What to Expect Next

• A fourth special session plenum is expected this week.
• Discussion on consolidation within the Bennett bloc may occur to avoid parties falling below the threshold.
• Increased scrutiny is expected on figures such as Cohen and Hendel (Reservists) regarding their positions on joining a potential Netanyahu government.

Polling Data

Maagar Mochot polls from earlier in the week are also in the previous post – https://knessetjeremy.com/2025/09/03/yossi-cohen-party-threatens-gantz-and-eisenkot-reshapes-coalition-math/)

Polls without Cohen/Reservists

Polls with Cohen/Reservists & Bennett-Lieberman-Eisenkot Scenario

Additional Questions (Additional Questions from earlier in the week are in the previous post – https://knessetjeremy.com/2025/09/03/yossi-cohen-party-threatens-gantz-and-eisenkot-reshapes-coalition-math/)