This week we will be less than 600 days away from the next scheduled election. Based on your feedback, I will return to posting polls on a weekly basis and analyzing from time to time. As we get closer to the next election, my posts will become more frequent, especially if there is a snap election.
Tag Archive: israeli polls
The Elections for the 25th Knesset were held on 1 November 2022. The inauguration of the 25th Knesset took place on 15 November 2022. On 3 May 2023 it was decided that the elections for the 26th Knesset would be held on 27 October 2026.
Only six of the last 24 Knessets completed a full term. The last instance of a full term was the 11th Knesset, and elections were held in 1988. In recent years, my policy has been to not share polls from the term and wait until after the election. There are many reasons for this policy. With the scheduled election now 627 days away, I am reassessing my policy. Recently, I have had many requests asking me to return to publishing both polls and analyses.
Before I make a final decision, I want to hear from you, my subscribers and readers, what you think.
-KnessetJeremy
In the table below I measure the gap between the Knesset Jeremy Average (4 days before election), the exit polls of Channels 11,12,13&14 and the final election results.
| Party | Election Results | Knesset Jeremy AVG | Gap |
| Likud | 32 | 31 | 1 |
| Yesh Atid | 24 | 25 | -1 |
| Religious Zionist | 14 | 14 | 0 |
| National Unity | 12 | 11 | 1 |
| Shas | 11 | 9 | 2 |
| UTJ | 7 | 7 | 0 |
| Yisrael Beitenu | 6 | 6 | 0 |
| Raam | 5 | 4 | 1 |
| Hadash-Taal | 5 | 4 | 1 |
| Labor | 4 | 5 | -1 |
| Meretz | 0 | 4 | -4 |
| Party | Election Results | Exit Poll 11 | Gap |
| Likud | 32 | 30 | 2 |
| Yesh Atid | 24 | 24 | 0 |
| Religious Zionist | 14 | 14 | 0 |
| National Unity | 12 | 11 | 1 |
| Shas | 11 | 10 | 1 |
| UTJ | 7 | 7 | 0 |
| Yisrael Beitenu | 6 | 4 | 2 |
| Raam | 5 | 5 | 0 |
| Hadash-Taal | 5 | 4 | 1 |
| Labor | 4 | 6 | -2 |
| Meretz | 0 | 5 | -5 |
| Party | Election Results | Exit Poll 12 | Gap |
| Likud | 32 | 31 | 1 |
| Yesh Atid | 24 | 24 | 0 |
| Religious Zionist | 14 | 14 | 0 |
| National Unity | 12 | 12 | 0 |
| Shas | 11 | 10 | 1 |
| UTJ | 7 | 7 | 0 |
| Yisrael Beitenu | 6 | 5 | 1 |
| Raam | 5 | 4 | 1 |
| Hadash-Taal | 5 | 4 | 1 |
| Labor | 4 | 5 | -1 |
| Meretz | 0 | 4 | -4 |
| Party | Election Results | Exit Poll 13 | Gap |
| Likud | 32 | 30 | 2 |
| Yesh Atid | 24 | 22 | 2 |
| Religious Zionist | 14 | 15 | -1 |
| National Unity | 12 | 13 | -1 |
| Shas | 11 | 10 | 1 |
| UTJ | 7 | 7 | 0 |
| Yisrael Beitenu | 6 | 5 | 1 |
| Raam | 5 | 5 | 0 |
| Hadash-Taal | 5 | 4 | 1 |
| Labor | 4 | 5 | -1 |
| Meretz | 0 | 4 | -4 |
| Party | Election Results | Exit Poll 14 | Gap |
| Likud | 32 | 31 | 1 |
| Yesh Atid | 24 | 23 | 1 |
| Religious Zionist | 14 | 12 | 2 |
| National Unity | 12 | 11 | 1 |
| Shas | 11 | 10 | 1 |
| UTJ | 7 | 8 | -1 |
| Yisrael Beitenu | 6 | 6 | 0 |
| Raam | 5 | 4 | 1 |
| Hadash-Taal | 5 | 4 | 1 |
| Labor | 4 | 6 | -2 |
| Meretz | 0 | 5 | -5 |
The last average compares three different polling averages. Last week’s average is compared to an average of the 15 polls released during the Monday-Friday period of October 24 – October 28. The most recent average is a 7 poll average consisting of the last seven polls released during the last two days before the polling ban. These represent the last polls conducted by the seven polling companies that have released public polls during this cycle: Maagar Mochot, Direct Polls, Kantar, Panels, Smith, Midgam and Kamil Fuchs.
Let’s take a look at the trends and momentum leading up to Election Day: Likud is dropping from 31.6 to 31.5 to 31.1. Yesh Atid is going up from 24.3 to 24.6 to 24.9. Smotrich is rising 13.4 to 13.6 to 14. Gantz appears to be dropping, as he went from 11.6 to 11.7 to 11.3. Shas’s stock is increasing from 8.1 to 8.5 to 8.6. UTJ is losing steam with 7 to 6.9 to 6.8. Yisrael Beitenu is dropping from 6.3 to 5.7. Labor is growing from 5 to 5.3. Meretz is falling from 4.7 to 4.5 to 4.3. Hadash-Taal & Raam both remain steady at 4. Both Bayit Yehudi & Balad who are under the threshold are making gains as we reach the homestretch.
As for the blocs so Bibi’s bloc has hit 60.5, that rounds up to 61, yet the downward trend of Likud & UTJ makes it very likely that it falls back to 60. Lapid’s bloc with Hadash-Taal hits 59.5, yet if one of the parties falls under the threshold it will become more complicated to block Netanyahu’s bloc. Lapid’s bloc without Hadash-Taal of 55.5 is far short from being able to form a coalition.
| Party | Seats | 7-Poll Avg | 15 Poll AVG | Last Week |
| Likud | 31 | 31.1 | 31.5 | 31.6 |
| Yesh Atid | 25 | 24.9 | 24.6 | 24.3 |
| Religious Zionist | 14 | 14 | 13.6 | 13.4 |
| National Unity | 11 | 11.3 | 11.7 | 11.6 |
| Shas | 9 | 8.6 | 8.5 | 8.1 |
| UTJ | 7 | 6.8 | 6.9 | 7 |
| Yisrael Beitenu | 6 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 6.3 |
| Labor | 5 | 5.3 | 5 | 5 |
| Meretz | 4 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 4.7 |
| Hadash-Taal | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| Raam | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| Party | Seats | 7-Poll Avg | 15 Poll AVG | Last Week |
| Bayit Yehudi | 2.3 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.8 |
| Balad | 2.3 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.7 |
| Zalika Party | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 1.1 |
| Kara Party | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.5 |
| Burning Youth | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| Party | Seats | 7-Poll Avg | 15 Poll AVG | Last Week |
| Netanyahu Bloc | 61 | 60.5 | 60.5 | 60.1 |
| Lapid w/H-T | 54 | 55.5 | 55.5 | 59.9 |
| Lapid w/o H-T | 59 | 59.5 | 59.5 | 55.9 |
Below are the last four polls that were released yesterday, before the deadline for publishing or broadcasting polls.
The next post will compare a 7-Poll Average from the polls released during the last two days of polling to a 15-Poll Average of the polls released throughout the week to last week’s average.
Poll 1: Panels conducted a poll with a 3.1% margin of error that was published by Maariv on October 28 2022.
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
31 [29] Likud (Netanyahu)
25 [17] Yesh Atid (Lapid)
14 [07] Religious Zionist (Smotrich)
12 [16] National Unity (Gantz)
09 [09] Shas (Deri)
06 [07] United Torah Judaism (Gafni)
06 [07] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)
05 [07] Labor (Michaeli)
04 [06] Meretz (Galon)
04 [05] Hadash-Taal (Odeh)
04 [04] Ra’am (Abbas)
Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold
2.1% [04] Bayit Yehudi (Shaked)
1.8% [01] Balad (Abu Shachada)
1.2% [–] New Economy (Zalika)
0.7% [01] Free Economy (Kara)
0.3% [–] Burning Youth (Muchtar)
Poll 2: Smith conducted a poll that was broadcast by Galai Yisrael Radio on October 28 2022.
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
31 [29] Likud (Netanyahu)
25 [17] Yesh Atid (Lapid)
14 [07] Religious Zionist (Smotrich)
11 [16] National Unity (Gantz)
09 [09] Shas (Deri)
07 [07] United Torah Judaism (Gafni)
06 [07] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)
05 [07] Labor (Michaeli)
04 [06] Meretz (Galon)
04 [05] Hadash-Taal (Odeh)
04 [04] Ra’am (Abbas)
Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold
2.1% [01] Balad (Abu Shachada)
2% [04] Bayit Yehudi (Shaked)
1% [01] Free Economy (Kara)
0.9% [–] New Economy (Zalika)
0.4% [–] Burning Youth (Muchtar)
Poll 3: Midgam conducted a poll of 1007 with a 3.1% margin of error that was broadcast by Channel 12 on October 28 2022.
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
31 [29] Likud (Netanyahu)
25 [17] Yesh Atid (Lapid)
14 [07] Religious Zionist (Smotrich)
11 [16] National Unity (Gantz)
08 [09] Shas (Deri)
07 [07] United Torah Judaism (Gafni)
06 [07] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)
05 [07] Labor (Michaeli)
05 [06] Meretz (Galon)
04 [05] Hadash-Taal (Odeh)
04 [04] Ra’am (Abbas)
Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold
1.6% [01] Balad (Abu Shachada)
1.5% [04] Bayit Yehudi (Shaked)
0.9% [–] New Economy (Zalika)
0.6% [01] Free Economy (Kara)
0.6% [–] Burning Youth (Muchtar)
0.6% [–] Green Leaf
0.4% [–] Eli Avidar Party
Poll 4: Kamil Fuchs conducted a poll of 801 with a 3.5% margin of error that was broadcast by Channel 13 on October 28 2022.
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
30 [29] Likud (Netanyahu)
27 [17] Yesh Atid (Lapid)
15 [07] Religious Zionist (Smotrich)
10 [16] National Unity (Gantz)
08 [09] Shas (Deri)
07 [07] United Torah Judaism (Gafni)
06 [07] Labor (Michaeli)
05 [07] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)
04 [06] Meretz (Galon)
04 [05] Hadash-Taal (Odeh)
04 [04] Ra’am (Abbas)
Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold
2.75% [01] Balad (Abu Shachada)
2% [04] Bayit Yehudi (Shaked)
0.9% [–] 30/40 (Weinstein)
0.7% [–] Burning Youth (Muchtar)
0.4% [01] Free Economy (Kara)
0.2% [–] New Economy (Zalika)
Jeremy's Knesset Insider 