Jeremy's Knesset Insider

The main highlight from this week’s four polls is the battle around the electoral threshold. Gantz and Smotrich each clear the threshold in one poll, while Miluimnikim and Balad remain below it in all surveys. This marks the fourth consecutive week in which Eisenkot fails to reach double digits in any poll. In the prime minister suitability questions, Bennett continues to stand out as Netanyahu’s strongest challenger in both head-to-head matchups and overall rankings.

The Bennett bloc continues to show strong upward momentum, reaching as high as 62 seats in the Maariv poll and 58–59 seats in three other surveys, with the Filber poll standing out as a clear outlier. With the exception of Filber, the bloc consistently polls at or above 58 seats, indicating solid structural support across different polling methods and samples.

The Netanyahu bloc receives 48–52 seats in four of the polls. Excluding the Filber survey, the bloc appears stuck at roughly 50–52 seats, showing no signs of upward movement.

The Arab bloc remains the most stable of all, with minimal variation—consistently between 9 and 11 seats.

A particularly notable data point appears in the Maariv poll, where Bennett’s party ties Likud. Historically, when Bennett’s party draws even with or surpasses Likud, his bloc tends to cross the 61-seat threshold.

Eyes on the threshold: Smotrich crossed the electoral threshold in two of the six polls (Maagar Mochot and Filber), while Gantz’s Blue & White passed in just one (Tatika). Balad and Hendel’s Miluimnikim failed to cross in any poll.

Bloc Trends: Bloc alignments remained unchanged from last week in the Kantar, Midgam, Filber, and Tatika polls. The Bennett Bloc gained two seats overall, rising from 59 to 61, driven by Bennett 2026’s increase from 19 to 21 seats. The party added two seats in the Tatika and one in the Filber poll.

This week, the Knesset returned from its summer recess and opened its fourth year of work. The coalition faces several major challenges in the Winter Session, including resolving the Haredi Draft Bill, passing a state budget, and advancing legislation to split the powers of the Attorney General.

The Opposition will note on Monday that while the Knesset will officially mark one year before the scheduled elections on 27 October 2026, it appears unlikely that the government will last that long. The question remains not if, but when the coalition will fall.

With Yossi Cohen dropping out and Yoaz Hendel officially announcing his candidacy, scenario polling has shifted to several potential developments: the possible resurrection of the Joint Arab List, a renewed Smotrich–Ben Gvir alliance, and a large-scale opposition merger. Filber and Direct Polls continue to show the coalition with a clear majority, while other pollsters show the opposition ahead but still short of a majority. Since the Eisenkot–Gantz split, the Arab parties have consistently held the balance of power in most polls.

In head-to-head matchups, Bennett remains Netanyahu’s main challenger. Among coalition voters, Bennett is also viewed as the preferred candidate to lead the bloc against Netanyahu. Gantz failed to cross the electoral threshold in five of the six polls, while Hendel’s Miluimnikim party did not pass in any of the five polls that included it and was omitted entirely from one.

Note #1: Percentages indicate below the 3.25% threshold.

Note #2: A Channel 12 scenario poll found that a Joint List of Arab parties would win 11 seats instead of 10, and a joint list of Ben Gvir and Smotrich would win 9 seats instead of 8 for Ben Gvir alone.

Note #3: Another Channel 12 scenario poll showed that an Opposition list combining Bennett, Lieberman, Lapid, Gantz, and Eisenkot would receive 47 seats, compared to 27 for Likud, 12 for the Democrats, 9 for Shas, and 8 for Otzma. The overall bloc balance would remain unchanged.

Note #4: A Maariv scenario poll found that if the Arab parties run together, they would win 12 seats instead of 11. Otzma would also gain one seat, while Likud and Lieberman would each lose one. As a result, the Arab Bloc rises from 11 to 12 seats, and the Bennett Bloc drops from 59 to 58.

Prime Minister Suitability (Midgam/Channel 12)

Coalition Voters – Who Should Lead the Anti-Netanyahu Bloc? (Midgam/Channel 12)