The last major event was the departure of Otzma from the coalition on January 19. Since then, nine public polls have been conducted and released by Panels, Midgam, Maagar Mochot and Smith. Below is a table comparing each party’s current seats to the projected seats based on an average of the nine polls. Additionally, there is a high and a low to provide additional context for the six-week period.
The most notable trends are that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has no interest in announcing snap elections due to the decline of his coalition and the continued decline of Yesh Atid at the expense of other opposition parties.
| Party | Current Seats | Projected Seats | 9-Poll-Avg | High | Low |
| Likud | 32 | 24 | 23.5 | 26 | 21 |
| National Unity | 8 | 17 | 17.2 | 19 | 16 |
| Yisrael Beitenu | 6 | 15 | 15 | 16 | 12 |
| Democrats (Labor) | 4 | 13 | 12.5 | 14 | 11 |
| Yesh Atid | 24 | 13 | 12.4 | 14 | 8 |
| Shas | 11 | 9 | 9.3 | 10 | 9 |
| Otzma Yehudit | 7 | 8 | 8.4 | 9 | 7 |
| UTJ | 7 | 7 | 7.1 | 8 | 7 |
| Hadash-Taal | 5 | 5 | 5.3 | 6 | 5 |
| Raam | 5 | 5 | 4.8 | 6 | 4 |
| Religious Zionist | 6 | 4 | 4.2 | 5 | 4 |
| Balad | 0 | 0 | 1.54% | 2.40% | 1% |
| New Hope | 4 | 0 | 1.19% | 2% | 0.40% |
| Noam | 1 | 0 | – | – | – |
| Idan Roll Party | *0 | 0 | – | – | – |
Scenario Polls:
Midgam’s latest scenario poll has Naftali Bennett’s party with 23 seats – a tie for the top spot with Netanyahu’s Likud. Golan finishes in 3rd place with 12 seats, Gantz drops to fourth place with 11 seats and Lapid wins only 10 seats. In this scenario, Smotrich’s party falls below the threshold.
Panels latest scenario poll has Naftali Bennett’s party with 25 seats compared to 20 seats for Netanyahu’s Likud. Lieberman and Golan are tied with ten each. Lapid, Gantz and Deri are all tied with nine seats each.
It seems that if the former prime minister chooses to run, he will be considered the leading candidate for the current prime minister. A deeper dive into the scenario matching survey shows that Bennett is the only potential candidate who would run head-to-head against Netanyahu and win. Additionally, compared to his competition, Bennett is making the biggest dent in the cross-tabulations of right-wing and coalition voters.
Midgam’s most recent Prime Minister Suitability polling:
38% Netanyahu, 32% Neither, 26% Lapid, 4% Don’t Know
35% Netanyahu, 32% Neither, 27% Gantz, 6% Don’t Know
35% Netanyahu, 31% Eisenkot, 27% Neither, 7% Don’t Know
39% Bennett, 34% Netanyahu, 21% Neither, 6% Don’t Know
Selected Crosstab Breakdown of Lapid/Gantz/Eisenkot/Bennett in matchups vs Netanyahu
Among Right Wing Voters: 29% Bennett, 19% Gantz, 14% Eisenkot, 9% Lapid
Among Coalition Voters: 19% Bennett, 14% Gantz, 8% Eisenkot, 4% Lapid
Bottom Line: The worse it looks for the coalition parties in the polls, the more likely it is that the various sides will compromise ahead of the budget deadline at the end of the month.
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