Issue Trends A Zman Israel poll shows that the coalition’s draft bill is opposed by a majority of the public, and that amendments to the bill would increase support by only 13.8%. A Channel 12 poll indicates that the previous government led by Naftali Bennett is viewed as having performed better than the current government led by Benjamin Netanyahu, by a 7% margin.
Bloc Trends The Bennett bloc continues to gain at the expense of Netanyahu’s bloc, and in five of the seven polls it is within the margin of error for Bennett to form a government without relying on the Arab parties. The Netanyahu bloc remains relatively stable. Among the individual parties, Golan reaches double digits in four polls, Liberman and Lapid do so in two polls each, and Eisenkot registers a high of eight and a low of four.
Eyes on the Threshold Within the Bennett bloc, Gantz fails to cross the electoral threshold in all polls, and even in a week dominated by headlines about the draft bill, Hendel crosses the threshold in only one poll. Lapid also fails to pass the threshold in one poll. Within Netanyahu’s bloc, Smotrich crosses the threshold in four of the seven polls.
What to Expect Next With the budget now approved by the government, polling and political attention is expected to shift toward cost-of-living issues.
The main highlight from this week’s four polls is the battle around the electoral threshold. Gantz and Smotrich each clear the threshold in one poll, while Miluimnikim and Balad remain below it in all surveys. This marks the fourth consecutive week in which Eisenkot fails to reach double digits in any poll. In the prime minister suitability questions, Bennett continues to stand out as Netanyahu’s strongest challenger in both head-to-head matchups and overall rankings.
The Bennett bloc continues to show strong upward momentum, reaching as high as 62 seats in the Maariv poll and 58–59 seats in three other surveys, with the Filber poll standing out as a clear outlier. With the exception of Filber, the bloc consistently polls at or above 58 seats, indicating solid structural support across different polling methods and samples.
The Netanyahu bloc receives 48–52 seats in four of the polls. Excluding the Filber survey, the bloc appears stuck at roughly 50–52 seats, showing no signs of upward movement.
The Arab bloc remains the most stable of all, with minimal variation—consistently between 9 and 11 seats.
A particularly notable data point appears in the Maariv poll, where Bennett’s party ties Likud. Historically, when Bennett’s party draws even with or surpasses Likud, his bloc tends to cross the 61-seat threshold.
Jeremy's Knesset Insider 