Jeremy's Knesset Insider

After Netanyahu’s visit to the White House, Bennett 2026 remains at 29 seats, Likud drops to 18, and Lieberman finishes third with 11 seats in the latest Panels poll. Direct Polls, known as the outlier pollster and the only pollster to poll without Bennett 2026, saw Likud jump to 33 seats following the visit, and Lieberman jumped to second place with 18 seats. A Midgam poll from Sunday, before the trip, put Bennett 2026 ahead of Likud for the first time, with 23 seats to Likud’s 22. In addition, once again Smotrich only passes the election threshold under direct polls. Midgam puts Balad ahead of Smotrich.

If we take the Panels and Midgam polls and add them to the latest Kantar and Maagar Mochot polls, we get a clearer picture with the average. Bennett leads Likud by five and a half seats. In the race for third place, no fewer than seven parties are within three seats of each other. At the bottom of the table, Raam is slightly above the Hadash-Taal alliance, and Balad remains below the electoral threshold. Smotrich remains below the threshold.

Bennett 2026 takes five seats away from the coalition parties in the Panels poll compared to three seats in the Midgam poll. The overall result is that the coalition drops to an average of 47 seats. The Zionist opposition bloc with Bennett 2026 will receive 63 seats without the Arab parties.

It is worth noting that with the resignation of MK Almog Cohen to accept a position as Deputy Minister in the Prime Minister’s Office, the coalition seat distribution was redistributed. Smotrich returns to seven seats and Ben Gvir drops back to six seats. Cohen is expected to run in the upcoming Likud primaries and not return to the Otzma list.

The Knesset returns from recess on May 4th.

Panels – Maariv Poll

Midgam – Channel 12 Poll

KnessetJeremy Weekly Poll Avg

Bennett 2026 gets 29 seats in the latest panel poll conducted for Maariv. Likud gets 21, Democrats 10 and the rest of the field remains in single digits. The current coalition loses 8 seats if Bennett runs. Perhaps most significantly, Smotrich crosses the threshold if Bennett does not run.

Direct Polls also released a poll. For some reason, Channel 14 is only broadcasting polls without Bennett 2026, despite the new party registration. Smith has not released a public poll all month. Midgam and Maagar Mochot have not released a poll this week. The current average is based on polls from the last few days by panels and Kantar, balanced by the latest polls from Midgam and Maagar Mochot.

Radio Interview with KAN English’s Mark Weiss:

Naftali Bennett is getting 27 seats in the first poll conducted and published following the registration of his new party, Bennett 2026. Likud is getting 20 seats in the poll of 600 people. Bennett got 24 seats and Likud 22 seats in a Kantar poll last week. Perhaps even more significantly, Bennett is grabbing five seats that would otherwise have gone to the parties in the current coalition.

15 years ago today, March 31st, 2010, I launched KnessetJeremy.com

For the past 15 years, Knesset Jeremy has been the leading source of Israeli polling data in English. That’s because of your readership. I want to take this opportunity to thank you. I also want to thank you for encouraging me to come back and post more frequently. I will do my best to remain your Knesset Insider.

This Week…

This week Kantar, Direct Polls and Panels have released polls. Kantar, Panels and Midgam have also released additional questions and/or scenario polls. The current poll average is being updated to reflect their latest polls along with polls from last week by Midgam and Mager Makot, which are also reflected in the previous average. Most poll companies assume that Bennett will indeed run.

Biggest Takeaway: Smotrich under the threshold

Finance Minister Smotrich’s party does not pass the election threshold in any poll or scenario poll this week, with the exception of Direct Polls, which some experts have linked the development directly to the budget passage.

Approval Ratings:

Panels examined Prime Minister Netanyahu’s approval rating:
66% Disapprove, 31% Approve and 3% Don’t know.

Midgam, which did not survey mandates this week, surveyed the approval rating for the Netanyahu Government and received similar results:
70% Disapprove, 27% Approve and 3% Don’t know.

Head-to-Head:

The Kantar poll has Netanyahu beating Gantz and narrowly losing to Eisenkot. Bennett leads Netanyahu by 10%.
41% Other answers, 33% Netanyahu, 26% Gantz
35% Eisenkot, 33% Other answers, 32% Netanyahu
41% Bennett, 31% Netanyahu, 28% Other answers

In the Midgam poll, Netanyahu defeated Golan, Gantz and Lapid. In addition, Netanyahu led Eisenkot by 5% and Bennett by 7%.
37% Netanyahu, 37% Neither, 21% Golan, 5% Don’t know
35% Neither, 34% Netanyahu, 26% Gantz, 5% Don’t know
35% Netanyahu, 33% Neither, 26% Lapid, 6% Don’t know
34% Netanyahu, 29% Eisenkot, 29% Neither, 8% Don’t know
38% Bennett, 31% Netanyahu, 24% Neither, 7% Don’t know

Scenario: Eisenkot replaces Gantz as head of the National Unity Party

The Kantar scenario poll showed no difference in the blocs if Eisenkot replaces Gantz. Eisenkot would win 16 seats compared to Gantz’s 9. With Eisenkot as leader – Bennett loses 3, Golan 2, Lieberman and Lapid lose 1 each.

This is another poll that shows that Eisenkot’s popularity remains within the opposition bloc. Another key factor is that in this poll Bennett leads Netanyahu 24-22 if he runs against Gantz, but Netanyahu leads Bennett 22-21 if Eisenkot runs. The poll was conducted on March 25, and surveyed 638 people with a margin of error of 4%.

A Tale of Two Polls

The latest Panels poll shows Naftali Bennett’s new party with a record 27 seats, compared to Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud, which remains at 19 seats for the second week in a row. If Bennett does not run, then Liberman will receive 8 seats, Gantz 7, Lapid 4 and Golan 2 seats. In addition, Likud will receive 4 seats and one seat each for Shas and Otzma. Smotrich is approaching the threshold if Bennett doesn’t run. This is another poll that shows Bennett attracting support from the coalition parties.

Likud is still in the low 20s in other polling companies such as Kantar, Maagar Mochot and Midgam, where Bennett is generally receiving a more modest 24 seats.

On the other hand, Direct Polls have Likud at 31 seats this week. Although it is down from 34 seats in their previous poll, the company continues to present results that are completely different from the other companies. In their latest poll, Lieberman reaches 19 seats, compared to Gantz who drops to 7 seats and Lapid who drops to only 5 seats. Not only does Smotrich cross the threshold in this poll, but he also receives 5 seats.

The Average

What’s Next?

Following the merger with New Hope, and with the budget and judicial reform behind them, the coalition will end the winter session with today’s final plenary session and go into recess. I expect there will be more polls this weekend that should reflect public opinion following the winter session. The Knesset will return from recess for the summer session on May 4.

Since my last average, we have had a number of political developments. First, Likud and New Hope agreed to a merger. Second, Otzma rejoined the government following the renewed war in Gaza. Third, the firing of the head of the Shin Bet. Fourth, the government is moving forward with the process of firing the Attorney General. Finally, the Knesset agenda has been settled – the vote on the budget will be held on Tuesday (less than a week before the date that will trigger automatic elections), the judicial reform will be decided on Wednesday, and the Haredi Draft Bill is expected to be advanced but not voted on before the Knesset goes into recess on April 2.

In short, Netanyahu’s main opposition will be either Avigdor Lieberman – or Naftali Bennett if he chooses to run. If Bennett does run, he will have the largest party and it will be easier for him to form a coalition.

Current Polls

Five polls have been conducted since the last average by Panels, Kantar, Midgam and Direct Polls. Four scenario polls have been conducted by Panels, Midgam and Mager Mohot. Kantar and Direct Polls did not poll any scenarios. Maager Mohot polled assuming Bennett is running and surveyed another scenario with Eisenkot at the top of the National Unity ticket.

The main conclusions from the regular polling are that Lieberman replaced Gantz as the second-largest party and would lead his bloc in the next Knesset, and that Ben-Gvir received a bump after rejoining the coalition at the expense of Smotrich, who also fell below the threshold in the Midgam poll.

Gantz’s trend of losing votes to Lieberman – or to Bennett if he runs – is not new, but for the first time in nearly two years, the National Unity Party has dropped back to third place in the polls. What is more interesting is that Smotrich, who was right that the government would renew the war, is the one losing votes to Ben-Gvir, who left the coalition.

Direct polls conducted head-to-head polls in which Netanyahu received 47% to 20% for Lapid and the same 47% to 17% for Gantz. There was no head-to-head between Netanyahu and potential candidates like Bennett or Eisenkot, who were more successful in other polling companies.

Scenario Polls:

If Bennett does run, he will have the largest party. In his best showing this week, Bennett has 25 seats in the latest Maariv panel poll compared to Likud falling to 19, the first time Likud has dropped below 20 seats in a while. There is no poll this week in which Bennett receives fewer seats than Likud or any opposition party receives more than 12 seats.

Bennett’s return would come at the cost of Lieberman losing 6.4 seats and Gantz losing 6.2 seats – but what makes his run interesting is his ability to cut into the coalition bloc’s support. Compared to the average polls without Bennett, the average polls with Bennett show Likud dropping 5.5 seats and Smotrich dropping to reach the threshold (he falls under in the Midgam poll).

In the Maagar Mochot scenario poll in which Eisenkot leads the National Unity Party instead of Gantz, the party receives 12 seats. In the scenario, Eisenkot gains two seats, but Otzma also gains two seats. Bennett, Lieberman, Lapid and Golan would each lose a seat. This is another poll that shows that an Eisenkot run would win more seats for his party, but it would come mainly at the expense of the opposition bloc.

What’s Next?

We’ll see how Israeli public opinion reacts in the next week and a half before the Knesset goes into recess. Now that the coalition is back to 68 seats, I expect the coalition to pass the budget and the judicial reform. The next coalition crisis will likely be over the Haredi Draft Bill, although a crisis could arise if there is another hostage exchange agreement that leads to a ceasefire and/or the release of more Hamas terrorists.

The Knesset will return from recess for the summer session on May 4th, and will be in session for less than 3 months until July 27th (with a Shevuot break in between). If the government survives this session, it will go into recess until October 19th – which will also likely ensure that elections will be held in 2026. Because of this, extreme pressure will likely be exerted on the coalition from May to July, from within and without. UTJ leader Goldknopf has set a deadline of May 31st for passing the Haredi Draft Bill.

For the first time during this term, five of the current six leading polling companies released surveys during the course of a week. (I guess they’re as excited as you are that KnessetJeremy is back.) This is a rare opportunity to get the kind of snapshot we usually see during an election season.

With three weeks left to pass the national budget and avoid elections, the average gives the Netanyahu-Haredi-Ben Gvir-Smotrich coalition 56 seats, 5 short of a majority. It should be noted that Opposition Leader Lapid is now averaging less than half of his previous performance two and a half years ago for the first time.

Kantar remains the main pollster of Channel 11, Midgam remains the main pollster of Channel 12, Panels remains the main pollster of Maariv, and Direct Polls remains the main pollster of Channel 14. Channel 13 has been working with “Maagar Mochot” since June (in previous cycles, the channel worked with the late Prof. Camil Fuchs of Dialog). The Truth Machine, a Youtube channel, which recently worked with Smith, has moved to Panels. I would guess that Smith could move to Channel 15 (I24news), which also worked with Mager Makot, or perhaps to one of the other Israeli newspapers.

As usual, Direct Polls are the exception compared to the rest of the field. For example, Direct Polls give Likud 32 seats, while Panels give Likud 22 seats. Direct Polls give Gantz only 7 seats, compared to the 18 seats given by Maagar Mochot. Direct Polls has the Democrats in second place and Yair Golan as the future leader of the opposition. Direct Polls give Lapid only seven seats, and don’t even bother to poll Gideon Sa’ar’s party.

Scenario Polls:

Panels conducted a scenario poll for Maariv in which Bennett’s party received 23 seats compared to 20 for Likud. Lieberman, Deri and Golan received 10 each and the rest were in single digits. In addition, Panels conducted a scenario poll for HaMoked in which Bennett received 22 seats compared to 19 for Netanyahu, 11 for Gantz and 10 for Lieberman. The Reserve Party led by former minister Yoaz Hendel will receive eight seats. Lapid will drop to only seven seats in the poll. Idan Roll’s party will receive 0.7% of the vote and Smotrich will also fall below the threshold. In addition, Panels conducted a scenario poll for the Truth Machine in which Bennett will receive 24 seats compared to 21 for Likud, 13 for Gantz and Eisenkot led by Yesh Atid will receive 14 seats. Bennett would be able to form a coalition in all of these scenarios.

Maagar Mochot’s scenario poll has Naftali Bennett’s new party with 25 seats, a joint Eisenkot-Lapid-Gantz ticket with 24 seats, and Likud with 23 seats. No other party would receive double digits. Bennett would be able to form a 64-seat coalition without the Arab parties.

Midgam conducted a scenario poll for Channel 12 in which Bennett and Netanyahu are tied at 24, Lapid third with 11, followed by Golan 10, Gantz 9 and Smotrich below the threshold. Midgam also looked at a joint ticket of Eisenkot-Lapid-Gantz. In this scenario, Likud remains in first place with 24 seats, the joint ticket win 23 and Bennett drops two seats and receives 22 seats.

In my previous post, I noted that Kantar’s scenario poll has Bennett’s party with 25 seats, compared to Likud with 23, and the Eisenkot-Lapid-Gantz joint party with 22 seats.

Snap Scenario Poll Analysis: It seems clear that both Lapid and Gantz have a lot to lose if Bennett returns to politics. Lapid is accused of being an ineffective opposition leader. Gantz is accused of zigzagging in and out of the coalition. It is likely that Lapid presents Eisenkot with the top slot in some joint faction with Yesh Atid, similar to how Lapid gave Gantz the top slot on the Blue and White ticket in 2019. However, the various attempts to push Eisenkot as an alternative to Bennett have not yet borne fruit, even in the case of a joint Eisenkot-Gantz-Lapid ticket. By and large, the biggest impact of a joint ticket is that it sends Golan and the Democrats back into single digits. During the current war, many Israelis have moved to the right, and Eisenkot, rightly or wrongly, is seen by many as “to the left” of Gantz and Lapid. The only party leaders who have managed to capture seats from the coalition are Bennett and Lieberman. I expect this polling showdown between Bennett and Eisenkot to continue in the coming months.

Who is more suitable to serve as Prime Minister?

40% Netanyahu, 36% other answers, 24% Lapid
38% Netanyahu, 36% other answers, 26% Gantz
38% Netanyahu, 32% Eisenkot, 30% other answers
39% Bennett, 35% Netanyahu, 26% other answers

Snap Analysis: The latest Kantar Poll follows the same trend as polls conducted by Panels, Midgam, Maagar Mochot and Smith. It is quite interesting to see that a joint party of Eisenkot-Gantz-Lapid would only win 22 seats and finish in third place. In the last elections, Lapid won 24 seats and Gantz 12, but following the Saar split, the two parties now hold a combined 32 seats. Additionally, in this scenario Bennett can form a 63-seat coalition with Eisenkot-Golan-Lieberman, without Raam.