Jeremy's Knesset Insider

For the first time during this term, five of the current six leading polling companies released surveys during the course of a week. (I guess they’re as excited as you are that KnessetJeremy is back.) This is a rare opportunity to get the kind of snapshot we usually see during an election season.

With three weeks left to pass the national budget and avoid elections, the average gives the Netanyahu-Haredi-Ben Gvir-Smotrich coalition 56 seats, 5 short of a majority. It should be noted that Opposition Leader Lapid is now averaging less than half of his previous performance two and a half years ago for the first time.

Kantar remains the main pollster of Channel 11, Midgam remains the main pollster of Channel 12, Panels remains the main pollster of Maariv, and Direct Polls remains the main pollster of Channel 14. Channel 13 has been working with “Maagar Mochot” since June (in previous cycles, the channel worked with the late Prof. Camil Fuchs of Dialog). The Truth Machine, a Youtube channel, which recently worked with Smith, has moved to Panels. I would guess that Smith could move to Channel 15 (I24news), which also worked with Mager Makot, or perhaps to one of the other Israeli newspapers.

As usual, Direct Polls are the exception compared to the rest of the field. For example, Direct Polls give Likud 32 seats, while Panels give Likud 22 seats. Direct Polls give Gantz only 7 seats, compared to the 18 seats given by Maagar Mochot. Direct Polls has the Democrats in second place and Yair Golan as the future leader of the opposition. Direct Polls give Lapid only seven seats, and don’t even bother to poll Gideon Sa’ar’s party.

Scenario Polls:

Panels conducted a scenario poll for Maariv in which Bennett’s party received 23 seats compared to 20 for Likud. Lieberman, Deri and Golan received 10 each and the rest were in single digits. In addition, Panels conducted a scenario poll for HaMoked in which Bennett received 22 seats compared to 19 for Netanyahu, 11 for Gantz and 10 for Lieberman. The Reserve Party led by former minister Yoaz Hendel will receive eight seats. Lapid will drop to only seven seats in the poll. Idan Roll’s party will receive 0.7% of the vote and Smotrich will also fall below the threshold. In addition, Panels conducted a scenario poll for the Truth Machine in which Bennett will receive 24 seats compared to 21 for Likud, 13 for Gantz and Eisenkot led by Yesh Atid will receive 14 seats. Bennett would be able to form a coalition in all of these scenarios.

Maagar Mochot’s scenario poll has Naftali Bennett’s new party with 25 seats, a joint Eisenkot-Lapid-Gantz ticket with 24 seats, and Likud with 23 seats. No other party would receive double digits. Bennett would be able to form a 64-seat coalition without the Arab parties.

Midgam conducted a scenario poll for Channel 12 in which Bennett and Netanyahu are tied at 24, Lapid third with 11, followed by Golan 10, Gantz 9 and Smotrich below the threshold. Midgam also looked at a joint ticket of Eisenkot-Lapid-Gantz. In this scenario, Likud remains in first place with 24 seats, the joint ticket win 23 and Bennett drops two seats and receives 22 seats.

In my previous post, I noted that Kantar’s scenario poll has Bennett’s party with 25 seats, compared to Likud with 23, and the Eisenkot-Lapid-Gantz joint party with 22 seats.

Snap Scenario Poll Analysis: It seems clear that both Lapid and Gantz have a lot to lose if Bennett returns to politics. Lapid is accused of being an ineffective opposition leader. Gantz is accused of zigzagging in and out of the coalition. It is likely that Lapid presents Eisenkot with the top slot in some joint faction with Yesh Atid, similar to how Lapid gave Gantz the top slot on the Blue and White ticket in 2019. However, the various attempts to push Eisenkot as an alternative to Bennett have not yet borne fruit, even in the case of a joint Eisenkot-Gantz-Lapid ticket. By and large, the biggest impact of a joint ticket is that it sends Golan and the Democrats back into single digits. During the current war, many Israelis have moved to the right, and Eisenkot, rightly or wrongly, is seen by many as “to the left” of Gantz and Lapid. The only party leaders who have managed to capture seats from the coalition are Bennett and Lieberman. I expect this polling showdown between Bennett and Eisenkot to continue in the coming months.

Who is more suitable to serve as Prime Minister?

40% Netanyahu, 36% other answers, 24% Lapid
38% Netanyahu, 36% other answers, 26% Gantz
38% Netanyahu, 32% Eisenkot, 30% other answers
39% Bennett, 35% Netanyahu, 26% other answers

Snap Analysis: The latest Kantar Poll follows the same trend as polls conducted by Panels, Midgam, Maagar Mochot and Smith. It is quite interesting to see that a joint party of Eisenkot-Gantz-Lapid would only win 22 seats and finish in third place. In the last elections, Lapid won 24 seats and Gantz 12, but following the Saar split, the two parties now hold a combined 32 seats. Additionally, in this scenario Bennett can form a 63-seat coalition with Eisenkot-Golan-Lieberman, without Raam.