Today marks the 16th anniversary of Knesset Insider / Knesset Jeremy.
I would like to take this opportunity to share a brief update and note that I expect to resume regular postings following the Passover holiday.
Earlier this week, the Knesset approved the state budget and has now entered recess until May 10. The current expectation is that the next session, beginning May 11, will continue through the last week of July, after which the Knesset will enter an election recess ahead of the October 27 elections.
There are two alternative scenarios, both of which are currently considered less likely. The first is that the Knesset returns from recess and votes to hold snap elections in mid-August. The second is that the Knesset reconvenes briefly, approximately three weeks, to pass key legislation, including the coalition draft bill, before dispersing by the end of May in order to facilitate elections on September 1.
Both alternatives would require a coordinated agreement among multiple parties to secure a majority for setting an earlier election date. At present, the most likely scenario remains that elections will be held as scheduled in 207 days.
Five new polls this week show a race that is simultaneously consolidating and fragmenting. The top of the map is stabilizing. The blocs are not.
The prime ministerial matchup remains binary. Across multiple surveys, the race has consolidated into a Netanyahu vs Bennett frame, with Channel 14 uniquely framing an internal Bennett vs Eisenkot dynamic. Everywhere else, Bennett consistently performs best in direct matchups, while Netanyahu continues to lead comfortably against Eisenkot, Lapid and Lieberman. The anti-Netanyahu Lane is narrowing. The consolidation is real.
The economic mood is soft. In the Zman Yisrael poll, 42% say their economic situation has worsened compared to 20% who say it improved. That is a net negative environment heading into a budget deadline month, particularly for a government advancing economic reforms late in its term.
On the October 7 law, there is rare cross-bloc consensus. In the i24 poll, 84% oppose removing the word “massacre” from the legislation, including 73% of coalition voters. In a polarized system, that level of cross-camp alignment stands out.
Bloc Trends
The bloc map remains competitive but structurally fragile. The Bennett bloc ranges from 56–60 seats in three polls and collapses to 42 in the two Netanyahu-leaning surveys (i24 and Channel 14). The Netanyahu bloc ranges from 49–53 in most surveys and surges to 64–65 in i24 and Channel 14.
This divergence is not typical statistical noise. It reflects turnout assumptions, Arab party configuration, and threshold modeling. Small shifts in participation or list alignment generate dramatically different outcomes.
Eyes on the Threshold
The most volatile variable remains the small parties. Several lists consistently hover at or below the 3.25% threshold. The seat math changes dramatically depending on whether one or two of these lists clear the barrier. A single party failing to pass can swing the bloc map by 4–6 seats instantly. The system is currently within margin-of-error distance of multiple wasted-seat scenarios.
What to Watch Next
The budget deadline is looming. The House Committee has decided there will be no plenum next week due to Purim, compressing an already tight legislative calendar. Failure to pass the 2026 budget by April 1 automatically triggers elections on June 30. The draft law remains the hinge issue for Shas and UTJ support. As we enter the decisive month, both the coalition draft bill and the state budget must move through the system simultaneously.
Even if political agreement is reached internally, the inability to manage the legislative clock could independently trigger an election. The countdown, not the polls, remains the dominant variable.
At the same time, opposition leadership consolidation bears watching. In Channel 12, Bennett leads the question of who should head the opposition bloc at 42%, compared to 19% for Eisenkot. If that gap widens, the consolidation dynamic accelerates.
The coalition’s survival still depends more on internal legislative math than public polling, but the electoral battlefield is increasingly defined.
Israeli Political System at a Decision Point: 38 Days Until the 2026 Budget Deadline
If the coalition fails to pass the 2026 State Budget by April 1, Israeli law triggers an automatic election on June 30, four months earlier than scheduled. With 38 days remaining, polling data and coalition math now intersect directly with legislative survival.
Issue Trends
Budget Deadline and Coalition Constraints
The coalition’s immediate hurdle is the Haredi Draft Law. The legislation must pass with sufficient time before April 1 to secure the support of Shas and at least part of United Torah Judaism for the budget vote. If the draft bill passes, the budget likely passes. If the draft bill stalls, the budget becomes highly uncertain. The countdown is not symbolic. It is structural.
Leadership Consolidation
Across multiple polls, the prime ministerial matchup has consolidated into a two-person frame. Bennett remains the clear alternative to Netanyahu, with other opposition figures structurally squeezed out. The race operates within a binary structure.
Issue Environment
Two dominant voter patterns: Security: ~40% overall priority; over 50% among coalition voters. The Trust Gap: A persistent credibility deficit around October 7 framing. The trust gap is not collapsing the coalition, but it continues to cap its expansion potential.
Bloc Trends
The bloc map is stable, but competitive. Across five recent polls: The Bennett-aligned bloc is in the mid-to-high 50s, peaking at 60. The Netanyahu bloc is 50–52 in four polls. The outlier is Filber with 65.
The structural battleground centers on three variables: Turnout asymmetry. Arab party configuration (unified vs. split). Threshold survival or mergers among smaller lists. Small shifts in any of these variables could reverse the bloc advantage.
Eyes on the Threshold
Several parties consistently poll below the 3.25% electoral threshold. If one party crosses, it could shift 3–5 seats between blocs. If multiple parties fail, wasted votes could reshape the entire map, as seen in 2022. In this environment, survival is not marginal. It is determinative.
What to Watch Next
The primary development outside the Knesset shaping the next 38 days is narrative dominance. Which frame defines the campaign? Security, Cost of Living, Leadership fatigue. Security currently leads, but compressed timelines amplify volatility.
The clock is legislative. The polls are structural. The next month determines whether this becomes a budget crisis or an election campaign.
Across all five polls, Bennett emerges as the clear alternative in the prime minister matchup landscape. In every head-to-head pairing tested, whether against Netanyahu alone or in multi-candidate suitability questions, Bennett consistently places second and well ahead of other opposition figures. Against Netanyahu, he is competitive in direct matchups (often within single digits), and in broader “who is most suitable” questions he is the only opposition figure consolidating meaningful support. No other contender consistently clears the low-to-mid 30s.
At the same time, public distrust surrounding October 7 remains structurally significant. Majorities or pluralities in multiple polls say they do not believe Netanyahu’s version of events leading to October 7. Separate questions about documents submitted to the State Comptroller show similar skepticism. On responsibility, large majorities assign blame to senior security officials, but 63% in one poll also assign responsibility to Netanyahu himself.
On the draft law, a majority (52% in Channel 12) believe its primary purpose is preserving the government rather than drafting Haredim, a politically sensitive finding given the coalition arithmetic.
Among Religious Zionist voters specifically, Smotrich’s party is split evenly: 46% say it represents them; 46% say it does not. That is not consolidation, it is fragmentation.
Taken together: Bennett consolidates the alternative lane, while trust deficits and governance questions remain live issues for the prime minister.
Bloc Trends
The Bennett Bloc remains ahead in most polls. The key variable is Arab party configuration. When Arab parties are modeled as unified, the Arab Bloc reaches double digits and reshapes the math. Bloc totals show the difference between when the parties are united vs separate. When modeled separately, totals shift, tightening the race. Across four of five polls, however, the Bennett-aligned bloc clusters above the Netanyahu Bloc. Only one poll (Filber) shows a decisive Netanyahu Bloc advantage.
Eyes on the Threshold
Threshold volatility remains one of the most consequential moving parts in the bloc math. In the week of Hendel’s party primaries, the party failed to cross the electoral threshold in every poll. Equally notable: the party did not publicly release how many members registered to participate in the primaries, a data point typically used to signal momentum. The absence of both polling viability and organizational transparency raises real questions about its viability.
What to Expect Next
The deadline to pass the state budget is now 46 days away. If the budget is not approved, Israeli law mandates an automatic election for June 30. That ticking clock now overlays the polling environment. Any instability within the coalition, particularly around the draft law or budget committee meetings, could move from theoretical to procedural very quickly. The next six weeks will determine whether this remains a polling story or becomes an election calendar story.
Poll #
Broadcaster / Publisher
Pollster
Dates
Sample Size
Margin of Error
1
Maariv
Lazar / Panels
Feb 11–12, 2026
593
4%
2
Channel 12
Midgam
Feb 12, 2026
508
4.4%
3
Israel Hayom
Kantar
Feb 11, 2026
605
4%
4
Zman Israel
Tatika
Feb 11–12, 2026
500
4.4%
5
Channel 14
Filber
Feb 12, 2026
532
Not Reported
Party
Maariv
Channel 12
Yisrael Hayom
Zman Yisrael
Channel 14
Likud (Netanyahu)
25
25
26
27
35
Bennett 2026
21
20
20
19
10
Joint List
10 (5+5+2%)
12
13
15
13
Yashar (Eisenkot)
12
11
10
8
8
Democrats (Golan)
9
11
9
8
10
Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)
9
9
9
10
8
Shas (Deri)
8
9
9
10
10
Otzma Yehudit (Ben Gvir)
10
9
10
7
7
Yesh Atid (Lapid)
9
7
7
8
5
United Torah Judaism
7
7
7
8
9
Religious Zionism (Smotrich)
2.5%
2.7%
2.7%
0
5
Blue & White (Gantz)
2.5%
1.9%
2.9%
0
2.5%
Miluimnikim (Hendel)
2.3%
2.0%
1.9%
0
–
Bennett Bloc
60
58 / 59
55 / 57
53 / 56
41
Netanyahu Bloc
50
50 / 51
52 / 53
52 / 53
66
Arab Bloc
10
12 / 10
13 / 10
15 / 11
13
Poll
Question
Results
Maariv
Netanyahu vs Bennett
Netanyahu 41%, Bennett 40%, Don’t Know 19%
Maariv
Netanyahu vs Eisenkot
Netanyahu 42%, Eisenkot 38%, Don’t Know 20%
Maariv
Netanyahu vs Lieberman
Netanyahu 46%, Lieberman 30%, Don’t Know 24%
Maariv
Netanyahu vs Lapid
Netanyahu 47%, Lapid 30%, Don’t Know 23%
Maariv
Believe Netanyahu’s Version on Events Leading to Oct 7
The most important development this week is not movement in seat distribution. It is the consolidation of the prime minister race.
In the Channel 12 poll, the head-to-head between Bennett and Netanyahu is a dead tie: 40%–40%, with 18% saying neither and 2% undecided. That is not statistical noise. It is the clearest crystallization yet of a two-person contest.
Netanyahu continues to lead comfortably against other alternatives: 41%–31% vs Eisenkot, 44%–23% vs Lapid, and 43%–22% vs Lieberman.
Channel 14’s suitability question reinforces the pattern. Netanyahu leads overall with 52%, but Bennett is the clear second at 20%, well ahead of Eisenkot (14%), Lapid (6%), Lieberman (6%), and Gantz (2%).
Across pollsters, the structure is consistent: Bennett consolidates the anti-Netanyahu lane while other opposition figures fragment it.
Netanyahu retains a firm personal base, but when the field narrows to one challenger, the race becomes competitive. Leadership questions behave differently from party-seat questions. In binary matchups, volatility shrinks and polarization sharpens. A 40–40 tie signals an electorate split almost exactly in half. That is far less stable than a 4–6 seat mandate gap.
Bloc Trends
Seat arithmetic remains competitive in five of the six polls. With the exception of Channel 14 (Filber), the Bennett Bloc consistently lands in the mid-to-high 50s, while the Netanyahu Bloc remains in the low 50s.
One structural nuance stands out: the Bennett Bloc performs better when Arab parties run separately rather than as a unified Joint List. I provided the bloc totals for both scenarios in the table below.
Eyes on the Threshold
One consistent pattern: Hendel fails to pass the threshold in every poll. He remains below 3.25% throughout, and his voters currently convert to zero mandates. For now, those votes remain structurally wasted.
What to Expect Next
The last time a Knesset completed its full term was 1988. We are roughly eight and a half months from the scheduled end of this term. Because early elections require approximately three months of procedural runway, we are entering a five-month window in which early elections can still realistically be called.
Beyond that, incentives shift. If the government passes the budget next month, the closer the system moves to automatic dissolution, the harder it becomes to justify triggering an early vote. Political actors will increasingly weigh whether collapse is worth it when the clock is already running. The calendar is narrowing. The strategic window is open, but not indefinitely.
Poll #
Broadcaster / Publisher
Pollster
Date
Sample Size
Margin of Error
1
Channel 12
Midgam
5 Feb 2026
500
±4.4%
2
Maariv
Lazar / Panels
4–5 Feb 2026
501
±4.4%
3
Channel 13
Maagar Mochot
4 Feb 2026
651
±3.8%
4
Zman Yisrael
Tatka
4–5 Feb 2026
500
±4.4%
5
Channel 14
Filber
5 Feb 2026
952
Not Published
6
Yisrael Hayom
TrendZone
5 Feb 2026
Not Published
Not Published
Party / Bloc
Channel 12
Maariv
Channel 13
Zman Yisrael
Channel 14
Likud (Netanyahu)
26
25
26
27
34
Bennett 2026
23
23
22
18
11
Joint List
12
12
15
14
13
Shas (Deri)
9
7
9
10
11
Democrats (Golan)
10
10
8
8
9
Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)
8
8
7
10
8
Yashar (Eisenkot)
10
9
6
6
6
Otzma Yehudit (Ben Gvir)
8
8
9
7
7
UTJ
7
7
6
8
9
Yesh Atid (Lapid)
7
7
8
8
4
Religious Zionism (Smotrich)
1.9%
4
4
0
4
Blue & White (Gantz)
1.1%
1.9%
2.1%
4
4
Miluimnikim (Hendel)
1.6%
2.7%
1.3%
0
—
Total Mandates Listed
120
120
120
120
120
Bennett Bloc Total (Bennett 2026, Democrats, Yisrael Beitenu, Yashar, Yesh Atid, Blue & White)
58 or 60
57 or 59
51
54
42
Netanyahu Bloc Total (Likud, Shas, Otzma, UTJ, Religious Zionism)
Jeremy's Knesset Insider 