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Poll on Settlers & Hilltop Youth

Panels conducted a poll for the Knesset Channel that was broadcast Jan 4 2016.

How has “Price Tag” events changed your opinion of settlers?

59% Hurt, 36% Didn’t change, 2% Increased

Are the “Hilltop Youth” a result of the settlement enterprise?

41% No, 39% Yes, 20% Don’t know

Do you believe Judea and Samaria Council leaders when they condemn the “Hilltop Youth”?

41% Yes, 36% No, 23% Don’t know

Are the Judea and Samaria Council leaders responsible for what is called “Hilltop Youth”?

48% Yes, 34% No, 18% Don’t know

What do the settlers need to do to regain your trust?

42% Act against the gangs, 28% We believe in them, 13% Don’t bother, 9% Don’t know, 8% Condemn

Panels conducted a poll for the Knesset Channel that was published Dec 31 2015.

Is it correct to investigate the Prime Minister’s wife Sarah Netanyahu in the Prime Minister Residence case?

66% Yes, 19% No, 15% Don’t know

Should Prime Minister Netanyahu also be investigated by the police in this case?

38% No, 38% Yes, 24 Don’t know

Likud supporters: 62% No, 25% Yes, 13% Don’t know

Is there truth that Sara Netanyahu broke the law or are disgruntled ex-workers out to get her?

48% Truth, 27% Don’t know, 25% Out to get her

Likud supporters: 40% Out to get her, 38% Truth, 22% Don’t know

If charges are filed against Sarah Netanyahu, should Prime Minister Netanyahu resign from his position?

46% No, 39% Yes, 15% Don’t know

How will Minister Chaim Katz’s election as Likud Central Committee Chairman influence Benjamin Netanyahu’s ability to control the Likud movement?

33% Won’t influence, 33% Don’t know, 22% Will make things more difficult for Netanyahu, 12% Will make things easier for Netanyahu

Of the following candidates who could defeat Prime Minister Netanyahu in the Likud Leadership race?

44% No one, 34% Saar, 4% Yisrael Katz, 4% Yaalon, 1% Chaim Katz

Should the position of Israeli Prime Minister be limited to two terms?

56% Yes, 26% No

Likud supporters: 57% No, 37% Yes

Is Prime Minister Netanyahu’s move to make the Likud Leadership Primary early a democratic move?

46% No, 32% Yes, 22% Don’t know

Likud supporters: 52% Yes, 38% No, 10% Don’t know

Is Aryeh Deri’s return to the Interior Ministry appropriate?

68% No, 21% Yes

Panels conducted a poll of 527 people with a 4.3% error margin for Maariv & The Jerusalem Post that was published Jan 1 2016.

Who is your person of the year?

29% Putin, 16% Merkel, 15% Netanyahu, 3% Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, 2% Pope Francis, 2% Obama, 33% don’t know.

What is the country’s biggest problem?

45% wave of terrorism, 33% cost of living & socioeconomic gaps, 8% the diplomatic stalemate, 4% Right-Left relations, 4% international isolation, 2% religious-secular relations, 4% don’t know.

Could a diplomatic agreement currently be reached with the Palestinians?

68% no, 22% yes, 10% don’t know.

What is currently the biggest danger to Israeli security?

47% Palestinians, 24% Islamic State & radical Islam, 13% Iran, 7% Jewish terrorism, 6% Hezbollah, 3% don’t know.

Do you believe the current terrorist wave can be stopped?

65% yes, 28% no, 7% don’t know.

Will Iran keep its commitments from the Iranian nuclear deal?

79% No, 15% don’t know, 6% yes.

What was the most important item on the international agenda in 2015?

50% struggle to stop Islamic State, 25% Syrian refugee crisis, 10% US presidential election, 6% war in Syria and Iraq, 5% Iranian nuclear program, 4% don’t know.

Will there be elections in 2016?

46% Probably Not, 27% Probably Yes, 13%  Don’t know, 9% For sure not, 5% For sure yes

The second public poll of seats since the Knesset Election in March 2015 was conducted by Midgam for Yediot Achranot and was published on Jan 1 2016. It was the last poll conducted in 2015.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

25 [30] Likud

18 [24] Zionist Union

18 [11] Yesh Atid

13 [13] The Joint (Arab) List

12 [08] Bayit Yehudi

08 [06] Yisrael Beitenu

07 [10] Kulanu

07 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

06 [07] Shas

06 [05] Meretz

65 [67] Right-Religious

55 [53] Center-Left-Arab

Note: Midgam was in the middle of the pack in terms of accuracy among the nine major polling companies in predicting the 2015 Knesset results, producing a projection that was off by 19 seats. However, Midgam was among the least accurate in predicting the blocs by giving the Center-Left-Arab bloc three more seats than they would actually win.

Knesset Jeremy Analysis: The most interesting takeaways from this poll is that Herzog and Lapid are now tied and that Bayit Yehudi is pulling seats from Likud.

Scenario Poll: Saar-Kahlon Party

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

21 [30] Likud

18 [24] Zionist Union

18 [11] Yesh Atid

13 [13] The Joint (Arab) List

12 [10] Saar-Kahlon Party

11 [08] Bayit Yehudi

08 [06] Yisrael Beitenu

07 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

06 [07] Shas

06 [05] Meretz

65 [67] Right-Religious

55 [53] Center-Left-Arab

Knesset Jeremy Analysis: In the scenario poll a Saar-Kahlon party would fail to gain any seats from the center and would take away votes from Likud and Bayit Yehudi.

Israel Counter in GOP Debates at 42

Israel Counter up to 42 in GOP Debates+NH Forum compared to one mention in the two on the Democrat side (Debate+SC Forum). Overall Israel was mentioned four times, one each, by four candidates during the CNN Debate.

GOP Events Times
Huckabee 5 5
Cruz 6 5
Rubio 6 4
Fiorina 6 4
Pataki 5 4
Paul 6 3
Bush 6 2
Kasich 6 2
Christie 6 2
Graham 5 2
Trump 5 2
Santorum 6 1
Carson 6 0
Gilmore 1 0
Jindal 5 4 out
Walker 3 2 out
Perry 2 0 out

Dem Events Times
Clinton 3 0
O’Malley 3 0
Sanders 3 0
Webb 1 1 out
Chafee 1 0 out