This post will present the updated Knesset Jeremy average, the various polls published over the weekend, and analyses.
Three weeks from Sunday, the Knesset will enter its summer recess. If during those three weeks, Prime Minister Netanyahu manages to resolve the coalition crisis surrounding the Haredi Draft and the potential ceasefire in Gaza, he will be able to comfortably head out to the opening session after the recess on October 20, 2025. If he succeeds in doing so, this will ensure that elections will be held in 2026, and the main question will be when the elections will be held and what will be the reasoning? If the Knesset votes for early elections in October so the elections can be held as early as January, the elections must be held by October 27, 2026.
Before we get ahead of ourselves and mark three years into the current Knesset term, it’s worth discussing this week’s news, the main electoral development since Bennett registered his party for the next elections. With four polls, we can now better examine the impact of Eisenkot’s departure and the disintegration of what was the National Unity Party.
Although many expect Eisenkot to join an existing party, the anti-Netanyahu bloc currently consists of six parties. Bennett 2026 remains the clear leader of the group, but Eisenkot’s support numbers have eroded some of Bennett’s support and allowed Netanyahu’s Likud to become the largest party. Gantz is the clear loser, finding his Blue and White around the threshold in every poll, or in the case of Channel 13, below it.
The Channel 12 poll from my previous post illustrates that Bennett is not only the largest party in his bloc, he remains the only candidate who can go head-to-head with Netanyahu. Eisenkot’s debut, with an average of seven and a half seats, is disappointing and could put Gantz and perhaps even Lapid in danger of falling below the threshold. One way to unify the votes is the talk about trying to create a single center-left party that would include Eisenkot, Golan, Lapid and Gantz. This scenario has not yet been surveyed in public polls, but it seems unlikely that so many egos would find themselves under one party.
Below is a table of the updated average. Afterwards, I will then analyze the Panels poll.
Updated Knesset Jeremy Average
| Party | TOI/Takita | Channel 12/Midgam | Channel 13/Maagar Mochot | Maariv/Panels | AVG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Likud | 29 | 26 | 25 | 28 | 27 |
| Bennett 2026 | 25 | 22 | 21 | 19 | 21.75 |
| Shas | 10 | 9 | 10 | 9 | 9.5 |
| Democrats | 8 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 9.5 |
| Yisrael Beitenu | 8 | 9 | 11 | 8 | 9 |
| UTJ | 7 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 7.5 |
| Eisenkot Party | 7 | 8 | 9 | 6 | 7.5 |
| Yesh Atid | 6 | 7 | 7 | 9 | 7.25 |
| Otzma | 6 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 6.5 |
| Raam | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Hadash-Taal | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Blue & White | 4 | 5 | 2.40% | 5 | 4.25 |
| RZ | 0 | 2% | 4 | 2.90% | 2.72% |
| Balad | 0 | 2% | 0 | 2% | 2% |
Panels conducted a poll on July 2-3 of 511 respondents and a 4.4% margin of error.
Panels examined five different scenarios. In the main scenario, Eisenkot’s party receives six seats, four from Bennett, one from Lieberman and one from Gantz. Perhaps most importantly, Eisenkot’s entry also pushes one seat from Bennett to Likud. In a scenario where Eisenkot joins Bennett as No. 2, the list gains a seat, but Bennett and Lieberman lose about a third of a seat to Smotrich, allowing him to pass the threshold. Gantz loses two seats while Golan, Lieberman and Ben-Gvir each lose a seat.
In the scenario where Eisenkot joins Lieberman, their list wins 17 seats and comes in third, Smotrich again passes the threshold. If Eisenkot joins Lapid in Yesh Atid so that the party receives 15 seats for third place, the same number of seats would exist if the two had run separately. In the final scenario where Eisenkot does not run, Bennett is only three seats behind Likud, Smotrich is below the threshold, and Gantz sits more comfortably with six seats.
Panels/Maariv Polling
| Party/Scenario | W/Eisenkot | E+Bennett | E+Lieberman | E+Lapid | No Eisenkot |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Likud | 28 | 27 | 27 | 28 | 27 |
| Bennett 2026 | 19 | 25 | 18 | 21 | 24 |
| Democrats | 11 | 10 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
| Shas | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 |
| Yesh Atid | 9 | 9 | 8 | 15 | 9 |
| Yisrael Beitenu | 8 | 8 | 17 | 9 | 9 |
| UTJ | 8 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 8 |
| Otzma Yehudit | 7 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 7 |
| Ra’am | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Hadash-Ta’al | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Blue & White | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 6 |
| Religious Zionism (RZ) | 2.90% | 4 | 4 | 2.60% | 2.60% |
| Balad | 2% | 1.90% | 1.90% | 1.90% | 1.90% |
| Eisenkot Party | 6 | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
The poll also found that half of Israelis support early elections while a third oppose them. The poll asking how the country should deal with Netanyahu’s trial is less clear-cut.
Additional Questions:
| Question | Response | Percent |
|---|---|---|
| Do you support or oppose early elections for the Knesset? | Support | 50% |
| Oppose | 35% | |
| No opinion | 15% | |
| In your opinion, how should the State of Israel handle Netanyahu’s trial? | Cancel the trial | 29% |
| Continue the trial to its conclusion | 25% | |
| Plea deal or pardon if Netanyahu retires from public life | 23% | |
| Plea deal or pardon without conditions | 13% | |
| Don’t know | 10% |
Channel 14 broadcast a poll by Direct Polls. The company did not conduct a poll that included Eisenkot, despite his split from Gantz, but presented Bennett as a scenario poll.
Direct Polls/Channel 14 Poll
| Party/Scenario | w/ Bennett | w/o Bennett |
|---|---|---|
| Likud | 34 | 35 |
| Bennett 2026 | 14 | n/a |
| Yisrael Beitenu | 11 | 14 |
| Democrats | 11 | 17 |
| Shas | 10 | 11 |
| UTJ | 8 | 8 |
| Otzma | 6 | 6 |
| Ra’am | 6 | 6 |
| Hadash-Ta’al | 5 | 5 |
| Yesh Atid | 5 | 7 |
| Blue & White | 5 | 6 |
| Religious Zionism (RZ) | 5 | 5 |
| Balad | 2.20% | 2.50% |
Jeremy's Knesset Insider 