Eyes on the threshold: Smotrich crossed the electoral threshold in two of the six polls (Maagar Mochot and Filber), while Gantz’s Blue & White passed in just one (Tatika). Balad and Hendel’s Miluimnikim failed to cross in any poll.
Bloc Trends: Bloc alignments remained unchanged from last week in the Kantar, Midgam, Filber, and Tatika polls. The Bennett Bloc gained two seats overall, rising from 59 to 61, driven by Bennett 2026’s increase from 19 to 21 seats. The party added two seats in the Tatika and one in the Filber poll.
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Pollster
Ordered by / Published on
Sample Size
Margin of Error
Date
1
Kantar
Channel 11
550
Not given
27.10.25
2
Midgam
Channel 12
504
4.4%
30.10.25
3
Maagar Mochot
Channel 13
Not given
Not given
29.10.25
4
Direct Polls (Filber)
Channel 14
781
Not given
29.10.25
5
Tatika (with Panel Adgenda)
Zman Yisrael
500
4.4%
29–30.10.25
6
Panels Politics (Lazar)
Maariv
501
4.0%
29–30.10.25
Party
Kantar (Ch11)
Midgam (Ch12)
Maagar Mochot (Ch13)
Filber (Ch14)
Tatika (Zman Yisrael)
Panels (Maariv)
Likud (Netanyahu)
27
26
27
35
30
25
Bennett 2026
21
21
23
12
20
21
Democrats (Golan)
11
11
8
10
9
12
Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)
9
9
9
9
10
10
Shas (Deri)
10
9
10
11
10
9
Yesh Atid (Lapid)
10
10
10
6
10
9
Yashar (Eisenkot)
8
8
4
7
4
9
Otzma Yehudit (Ben Gvir)
7
9
9
7
6
7
United Torah Judaism
7
7
7
8
8
7
Hadash–Ta’al
5
5
4
5
4
6
Ra’am (Abbas)
5
5
5
5
5
5
Religious Zionism (Smotrich)
2.3%
2.7%
4
5
–
2.2%
Blue & White (Gantz)
3%
1.6%
1.8%
1.7%
4
1.9%
Balad
2%
1.8%
2.8%
2.4%
–
2%
Miluimnikim (Hendel)
1.8%
1.9%
1.3%
–
–
1.9%
Bennett Bloc
59
59
54
44
57
61
Netanyahu Bloc
51
51
57
66
54
48
Arab Bloc
10
10
9
10
9
11
Poll
Question (translated)
Results
Kantar (Ch11)
Support applying Israeli sovereignty in Judea & Samaria (West Bank)?
This week, the Knesset returned from its summer recess and opened its fourth year of work. The coalition faces several major challenges in the Winter Session, including resolving the Haredi Draft Bill, passing a state budget, and advancing legislation to split the powers of the Attorney General.
The Opposition will note on Monday that while the Knesset will officially mark one year before the scheduled elections on 27 October 2026, it appears unlikely that the government will last that long. The question remains not if, but when the coalition will fall.
With Yossi Cohen dropping out and Yoaz Hendel officially announcing his candidacy, scenario polling has shifted to several potential developments: the possible resurrection of the Joint Arab List, a renewed Smotrich–Ben Gvir alliance, and a large-scale opposition merger. Filber and Direct Polls continue to show the coalition with a clear majority, while other pollsters show the opposition ahead but still short of a majority. Since the Eisenkot–Gantz split, the Arab parties have consistently held the balance of power in most polls.
In head-to-head matchups, Bennett remains Netanyahu’s main challenger. Among coalition voters, Bennett is also viewed as the preferred candidate to lead the bloc against Netanyahu. Gantz failed to cross the electoral threshold in five of the six polls, while Hendel’s Miluimnikim party did not pass in any of the five polls that included it and was omitted entirely from one.
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Source / Commissioned by
Pollster
Date(s)
Sample Size
Margin of Error
Blocs (Netanyahu / Bennett / Arab)
1
i24NEWS
Direct Polls
19 Oct 2025
519
±4.4%
63 / 46 / 11
2
Israel Hayom
Kantar
22–23 Oct 2025
601
±4.1%
51 / 59 / 10
3
Channel 12
Midgam
23 Oct 2025
501
±4.4%
51 / 59 / 10
3.5
Channel 12
Midgam
23 Oct 2025
501
±4.4%
(PM Suitability Poll)
4
Channel 14
Filber
23 Oct 2025
486
N/A
66 / 44 / 10
5
Zman Yisrael
Tatika
22–23 Oct 2025
404
±4.8%
57 / 53 / 10
6
Maariv
Lazar / Panels
22–23 Oct 2025
500
±4.4%
50 / 59 / 11
Party
Direct Polls
Kantar
Midgam
Filber
Tatika
Lazar
Likud (Netanyahu)
34
28
27
36
31
26
Bennett 2026
17
21
21
11
18
19
Shas (Deri)
10
9
9
11
10
9
Democrats (Golan)
10
11
13
12
9
12
Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)
9
10
9
9
10
10
Yashar (Eisenkot)
6
10
7
7
5
9
Yesh Atid (Lapid)
4
9
9
5
7
9
UTJ
8
7
7
8
7
7
Otzma Yehudit (Ben Gvir)
6
7
8
7
5
8
Religious Zionism (Smotrich)
5
2.8%
2.1%
4
4
2.6%
Ra’am (Abbas)
6
5
5
5
5
5
Hadash–Ta’al
5
5
5
5
5
6
Balad
2.6%
2.4%
1.4%
2.3%
0
2.2%
Miluimnikim/Reservists (Hendel)
2.5%
2.3%
1.6%
–
0
2.1%
Blue & White (Gantz)
1.2%
3.1%
2.2%
2.4%
4
2.9%
Blocs (Netanyahu / Bennett / Arab)
63 / 46 / 11
51 / 59 / 10
51 / 59 / 10
66 / 44 / 10
57 / 53 / 10
50 / 59 / 11
Note #1: Percentages indicate below the 3.25% threshold.
Note #2: A Channel 12 scenario poll found that a Joint List of Arab parties would win 11 seats instead of 10, and a joint list of Ben Gvir and Smotrich would win 9 seats instead of 8 for Ben Gvir alone.
Note #3: Another Channel 12 scenario poll showed that an Opposition list combining Bennett, Lieberman, Lapid, Gantz, and Eisenkot would receive 47 seats, compared to 27 for Likud, 12 for the Democrats, 9 for Shas, and 8 for Otzma. The overall bloc balance would remain unchanged.
Note #4: A Maariv scenario poll found that if the Arab parties run together, they would win 12 seats instead of 11. Otzma would also gain one seat, while Likud and Lieberman would each lose one. As a result, the Arab Bloc rises from 11 to 12 seats, and the Bennett Bloc drops from 59 to 58.
Prime Minister Suitability (Midgam/Channel 12)
Matchup
Netanyahu
Opponent
Neither
Don’t Know
vs Bennett
39%
37%
21%
3%
vs Eisenkot
41%
28%
25%
6%
vs Lapid
43%
26%
27%
4%
vs Golan
44%
21%
31%
4%
vs Lieberman
41%
18%
36%
5%
vs Gantz
41%
18%
38%
3%
Coalition Voters – Who Should Lead the Anti-Netanyahu Bloc? (Midgam/Channel 12)
The political crisis continues, with Shas and UTJ still outside the government.
Sep 2: A brief third special session plenum was held as Knesset silence ended.
Sep 3: Most committees resumed work, including a hearing on the Haredi Draft Bill in the Defense & Foreign Affairs Committee.
Sep 4: Eisenkot called on Gantz to drop out if he remains below the electoral threshold in the polls.
How It Played Out in the Polls
Bennett remains the leading contender against Netanyahu in both Knesset seats and Prime Minister suitability.
When running separately, Eisenkot, Cohen, and the Reservists generally act as spoilers, usually remaining in the single digits.
Benny Gantz’s Blue & White party is at an all-time low for the 25th Knesset, reaching a maximum of four seats and failing to pass the electoral threshold in five of the 12 polls this week.
Smotrich fails to pass the threshold in three polls, negatively affecting the Netanyahu bloc’s numbers.
This week, both Lapid and Eisenkot fail to pass the threshold in one poll each.
What to Expect Next
A fourth special session plenum is expected this week.
Discussion on consolidation within the Bennett bloc may occur to avoid parties falling below the threshold.
Increased scrutiny is expected on figures such as Cohen and Hendel (Reservists) regarding their positions on joining a potential Netanyahu government.
Jeremy's Knesset Insider 