Jeremy's Knesset Insider

Panels conducted a poll of 851 people with a 3.4% margin of error that was published by Makor Rishon on December 20 2019. The poll was conducted Dec 18.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

38 [33] Blue & White (Gantz)
34 [32] Likud (Netanyahu)
14 [13] The Joint List – Hadash-Taal-Raam-Balad (Odeh)
08 [09] Shas (Deri)
07 [08] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)
07 [07] United Torah Judaism (Litzman)
07 [03] HaYamin HeHadash (Bennett)
05 [06] Labor (A.Peretz)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

2.7% [04] United Right List (R.Peretz)
2.1% [05] Democratic Union (Horowitz)
1.6% [00] Otzma (Ben Gvir)

Phase 2 Recommendations:

57 [54/57] Center-Left-Arab Bloc (Nominated Gantz in Phase 2)
56 [55] Right-Religious Bloc (Nominated Netanyahu in Phase 2)
07 [08/11] Pushing Unity Government (Did not nominate)

*Balad which was part of the Joint List withdrew the recommendations of their 3 MKs.

Scenario Poll: Saar leading Likud

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

34 [33] Blue & White (Gantz)
30 [32] Likud (Saar)
14 [13] The Joint List – Hadash-Taal-Raam-Balad (Odeh)
10 [03] HaYamin HeHadash (Bennett)
08 [09] Shas (Deri)
08 [07] United Torah Judaism (Litzman)
07 [08] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)
05 [06] Labor (A.Peretz)
04 [04] United Right List + Otzma (R.Peretz & Ben Gvir)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

2.6% [05] Democratic Union (Horowitz)

Phase 2 Recommendations:

60 [55] Right-Religious Bloc (Nominated Netanyahu in Phase 2)
53 [54/57] Center-Left-Arab Bloc (Nominated Gantz in Phase 2)
07 [08/11] Pushing Unity Government (Did not nominate)

Smith conducted a poll of 800 people with a 3.5% margin of error that was broadcast by Radio 103 FM on December 20 2019.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

35 [33] Blue & White (Gantz)
32 [32] Likud (Netanyahu)
13 [13] The Joint List – Hadash-Taal-Raam-Balad (Odeh)
08 [09] Shas (Deri)
07 [08] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)
07 [07] United Torah Judaism (Litzman)
05 [06] Labor (A.Peretz)
05 [03] HaYamin HeHadash (Bennett)
04 [05] Democratic Union (Horowitz)
04 [04] United Right List + Otzma (R.Peretz & Ben Gvir)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

00 [–-] Others

Phase 2 Recommendations:

57 [54/57] Center-Left-Arab Bloc (Nominated Gantz in Phase 2)
56 [55] Right-Religious Bloc (Nominated Netanyahu in Phase 2)
07 [08/11] Pushing Unity Government (Did not nominate)

*Balad which was part of the Joint List withdrew the recommendations of their 3 MKs.

Scenario Poll: Saar leading Likud

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

33 [33] Blue & White (Gantz)
30 [32] Likud (Saar)
13 [13] The Joint List – Hadash-Taal-Raam-Balad (Odeh)
09 [09] Shas (Deri)
08 [03] HaYamin HeHadash (Bennett)
07 [07] United Torah Judaism (Litzman)
06 [08] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)
05 [06] Labor (A.Peretz)
05 [04] United Right List + Otzma (R.Peretz & Ben Gvir)
04 [05] Democratic Union (Horowitz)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

00 [–-] Others

Phase 2 Recommendations:

59 [55] Right-Religious Bloc (Nominated Netanyahu in Phase 2)
55 [54/57] Center-Left-Arab Bloc (Nominated Gantz in Phase 2)
06 [08/11] Pushing Unity Government (Did not nominate)

Additional Questions:

Who is more suited to serve as Prime Minister?

43% Netanyahu, 38% Saar, 19% Don’t know

Likud voters: 80% Netanyahu, 12% Saar, 8% Don’t know

Kantar conducted a poll of 559 people with a 4.3% margin of error that was broadcast by Channel 11 on December 15 2019. The poll was conducted on Dec 15.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

35 [33] Blue & White (Gantz)
31 [32] Likud (Netanyahu)
13 [13] The Joint List – Hadash-Taal-Raam-Balad (Odeh)
09 [09] Shas (Deri)
08 [08] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)
07 [07] United Torah Judaism (Litzman)
06 [06] Labor (A.Peretz)
06 [03] HaYamin HeHadash (Bennett)
05 [05] Democratic Union (Horowitz)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

00 [04] United Right List (R.Peretz)
00 [–-] Otzma (Ben Gvir)

Phase 2 Recommendations:

59 [54/57] Center-Left-Arab Bloc (Nominated Gantz in Phase 2)
53 [55] Right-Religious Bloc (Nominated Netanyahu in Phase 2)
08 [08/11] Pushing Unity Government (Did not nominate)

*Balad which was part of the Joint List withdrew the recommendations of their 3 MKs.

Scenario Poll: Saar leading Likud

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

34 [33] Blue & White (Gantz)
27 [32] Likud (Saar)
13 [13] The Joint List – Hadash-Taal-Raam-Balad (Odeh)
10 [09] Shas (Deri)
08 [03] HaYamin HeHadash (Bennett)
07 [08] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)
07 [07] United Torah Judaism (Litzman)
05 [06] Labor (A.Peretz)
05 [05] Democratic Union (Horowitz)
04 [04] United Right List (R.Peretz)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

00 [–-] Otzma (Ben Gvir)

Phase 2 Recommendations:

57 [54/57] Center-Left-Arab Bloc (Nominated Gantz in Phase 2)
56 [55] Right-Religious Bloc (Nominated Netanyahu in Phase 2)
07 [08/11] Pushing Unity Government (Did not nominate)

Additional Questions:

For Right-Religious voters:
Do you support taking apart the right wing bloc after the elections?

52% No, 32% Don’t know, 16% Yes

For Center-Left-Arab voters:
Should Gantz have formed a government with the Joint List to avoid elections?

54% Yes, 28% No, 18% Don’t know

*Correction: The above question was originally presented as a question directed at all Israelis as it was when it was originally aired on television. Pollster & Analyst Dahlia Scheindlin pointed out to me the correction made by Kantar that indeed that question was only for the Center-Left-Arab bloc of voters.

Smith conducted a poll of 700 people with a 3.8% margin of error that was published by Maariv on December 14 2019.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

35 [33] Blue & White (Gantz)
33 [32] Likud (Netanyahu)
12 [13] The Joint List – Hadash-Taal-Raam-Balad (Odeh)
08 [09] Shas (Deri)
07 [08] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)
07 [07] United Torah Judaism (Litzman)
05 [06] Labor (A.Peretz)
05 [03] HaYamin HeHadash (Bennett)
04 [05] Democratic Union (Horowitz)
04 [04] United Right List + Otzma (R.Peretz + Ben Gvir)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

00 Others

Phase 2 Recommendations:

57 [55] Right-Religious Bloc (Nominated Netanyahu in Phase 2)
56 [54/57] Center-Left-Arab Bloc (Nominated Gantz in Phase 2)
07 [08/11] Pushing Unity Government (Did not nominate)

*Balad which was part of the Joint List withdrew the recommendations of their 3 MKs.

Note: This is the first poll since the September elections where the right-religious bloc received more seats than the center-left-arab bloc. The reasoning is that the United Right List & Otzma were polled together as a single united list in this poll.

Maagar Mochot conducted a poll of 500 people with a 4.4% margin of error that was published by Yisrael Hayom on December 13 2019. The poll was conducted on Dec 12 after the new election was triggered.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

37 [33] Blue & White (Gantz)
31 [32] Likud (Netanyahu)
14 [13] The Joint List – Hadash-Taal-Raam-Balad (Odeh)
08 [09] Shas (Deri)
08 [08] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)
07 [07] United Torah Judaism (Litzman)
06 [06] Labor (A.Peretz)
05 [03] HaYamin HeHadash (Bennett)
04 [05] Democratic Union (Horowitz)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

2% [04] United Right List (R.Peretz)
1% [–-] Otzma (Ben Gvir)

Phase 2 Recommendations:

61 [54/57] Center-Left-Arab Bloc (Nominated Gantz in Phase 2)
51 [55] Right-Religious Bloc (Nominated Netanyahu in Phase 2)
08 [08/11] Pushing Unity Government (Did not nominate)

*Balad which was part of the Joint List withdrew the recommendations of their 3 MKs.

Scenario Poll: Saar leading Likud

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

33 [33] Blue & White (Gantz)
31 [32] Likud (Saar)
15 [13] The Joint List – Hadash-Taal-Raam-Balad (Odeh)
11 [09] Shas (Deri)
07 [08] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)
07 [07] United Torah Judaism (Litzman)
07 [03] HaYamin HeHadash (Bennett)
05 [06] Labor (A.Peretz)
05 [05] Democratic Union (Horowitz)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

2% [04] United Right List (R.Peretz)
2% [–-] Otzma (Ben Gvir)

Phase 2 Recommendations:

57 [54/57] Center-Left-Arab Bloc (Nominated Gantz in Phase 2)
56 [55] Right-Religious Bloc (Nominated Netanyahu in Phase 2)
07 [08/11] Pushing Unity Government (Did not nominate)

Additional Questions:

Who is more qualified to serve as Prime Minister?

42% Netanyahu, 40% Gantz, 18% Don’t know

If Saar led the Likud who is more qualified to serve as Prime Minister?

36% Gantz, 33% Don’t know, 31% Saar

Who is most to blame for the third elections?

43% Netanyahu, 30% Lieberman, 14% Don’t know, 6% Lapid, 5% Gantz, 2% Haredim

What government do you want to see?

30% Unity, 20% Right, 19% Large Unity w/Right Bloc + Blue & White, 16% Don’t know, 15% Center-Left government

If elections were today would you go out and vote?

59% Yes, 23% Probably, 15% No, 3% Maybe

Does the third election make you reconsider your vote from last time?

60% No, 27% Maybe, 13% Yes