Jeremy's Knesset Insider

News Recap

• Political Crisis: The Haredi parties remain outside of the government, with no resolution on their return.
• Gaza Update: Ceasefire negotiations remain stalled, with no progress on the hostage front. Discussions within the government and security establishment now focus on expanding the war effort into Gaza City and the refugee camps in the middle of the strip.
• Coalition Reshuffle: The second phase of the coalition reshuffle was completed this week. A special Knesset plenum approved two new deputy speakers, and five Knesset committees confirmed new committee chairs, including MK Bismuth replacing MK Edelstein as Chair of the Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee.
• Haredi Draft: MK Bismuth announced that he intends to take time to review the issue before presenting his version of a new Haredi draft bill, delaying any potential committee vote until the end of the summer recess.

How It Played Out in the Polls

• Only three polls were published this week.
• Likud continues to lead, but Bennett 2026 remains a strong second. The Bennett bloc gains momentum in both the Tatika and Lazar polls, while the Netanyahu bloc secures a clear majority only in the Filber poll.
• The Democrats and Shas are now competing for third-largest party, while Yisrael Beiteinu and Yesh Atid are locked in a race for fifth place.
• Blue & White passes the electoral threshold in all three surveys, while Smotrich makes it through in two out of three.

What to Expect Next

• Knesset Silence: While committees continue to meet during the recess, the Knesset will go completely silent between August 13 and September 3, with no committee activity scheduled during that period. Meetings are expected on both August 13 and September 3 themselves.
• Political Crisis: There are no indications that the coalition crisis will be resolved before the Knesset goes silent.
• Gaza Update: With Knesset activity on hold, government attention is expected to shift fully to the question of whether to push deeper into Gaza.
• Coalition Reshuffle: The reshuffle appears largely complete, though a few final committee membership appointments may be made before the silence.
• Polls: Fewer seat projections are expected, with public opinion polling likely to focus on Gaza developments. I don’t plan to post an update next week unless there’s a major political development and will most likely resume coverage at the start of September.

Seats

Blocs:

Additional Questions (Maariv Poll):

News Recap

• The Haredi parties have not rejoined the coalition.
• There is no new Haredi draft bill.
• No Gaza ceasefire deal has been reached.
• The main Knesset event this week was the appointment of MK Milwidsky as Appropriations Committee Chairman. He subsequently resigned as one of the deputy speakers.

How It Played Out in the Polls

• Likud holds a two-seat lead over Bennett 2026 in the Tatika poll, is even with it in the Panels poll, and maintains its usual lead in the Filber poll.
• The Democrats tie or edge out Yisrael Beitenu for third place in each poll this week.
• For the first time since Eisenkot’s departure, Gantz passes the electoral threshold in all polls.
• Smotrich passes the threshold only in the Filber poll.
• The Netanyahu bloc leads in the Filber poll.
• The Bennett bloc reaches 60 seats in the Tatika poll and 61 or more in the Lazar polls.

What to Expect Next

• The Knesset will hold a special plenum session on Monday to approve two new deputy speakers.
• The House Committee will vote on a proposal to appoint five new committee chairs, including Bismoth.
• The Defense and Foreign Affairs Committee will meet to approve Bismoth’s appointment as chair, replacing Edelstein.

Seats:

Blocs:

Additional Questions:

Yisrael Hayom – 20 Years After Disengagement Poll (Poll 5)

Support for Gaza Resettlement by Group

I would be appreciative if you let me know if you like the new format, thanks.

This week saw 10 new polls from four different polling companies, testing five distinct political scenarios.

News Recap:
The Haredi parties have not rejoined the government, and as a result, the Knesset enters its recess after failing to vote on most of its spring session agenda. In a bid to bring the Haredim back, the Likud faction elected MK Boaz Bismuth to replace Yuli Edelstein as Chairman of the Defense and Foreign Affairs Committee. The internal vote broke down as follows:

• 29 votes (70.73%) for Bismuth
• 4 votes (9.76%) for Edelstein
• 8 members (19.51%) abstained, did not vote, or were absent

Meanwhile, Likud MK Hanoch Milwidsky, who abstained in the Bismuth vote, was tapped to replace UTJ MK Moshe Gafni as Chairman of the Appropriations Committee.

How It Played Out in the Polls:
Did Edelstein’s ouster shift public opinion? Netanyahu and Bennett remain neck and neck in the Prime Minister suitability polls. Likud and Bennett 2026 continue to battle for first place. Notably, Bennett now has a path to forming a coalition without the Arab parties in both the Maariv and Maagar Mochot polls.

Golan and Lieberman are neck and neck for third place. Smotrich clears the electoral threshold in 7 of the 10 polls, edging out Gantz, who passes it in 6. Meanwhile, the new Miluim Party is polling strongly—at 7 to 10 seats.

The Eisenkot effect appears to be fading. A party led by Gadi Eisenkot would earn 6 seats according to Panels and 4 seats according to Maagar Mochot. Direct Polls and Filber didn’t even test the scenario. (It’s also worth noting that Filber has split from his previous polling partner at Direct Polls and now operates independently.)

What to Expect Next:
In the coming week, expect the House Committee to approve the appointments of Bismuth and Milwidsky. There’s also chatter about a special plenum session to pass select legislation.

As I predicted, the government survived the Spring Session and is now safe from automatic dissolution until October 20, 2025—effectively ensuring elections will be held in 2026. By law elections must be held by October 27, 2026. If a 2026 budget is not passed by March 31, 2026, elections must be held by June 30, 2026. If the Knesset votes for early elections, Israeli law requires Election Day to occur 3 to 5 months after the law is passed.

Key to understanding the polls below:
Poll #1: The i24NEWS survey was conducted by Direct Polls on July 23, 2025, with 633 respondents. The statistical sampling error is ±3.8%.
Poll #2: The Filber poll for Channel 14 was conducted on July 24, 2025, contacting 568 adults. No margin of error was reported.
Poll #3: The Panels poll for Maariv was conducted between July 23-24, 2025, involving 501 respondents. The maximum sampling error is ±4.4%.
Poll #4: The Maagar Mochot poll for Channel 13 was conducted on July 23, 2025, with a sample of 504 respondents and a statistical margin of error of ±4.4%. Refer to the previous post on Wednesday for additional questions.

Knesset Mandate Distribution (Weekly Polls Comparison)

Prime Minister Suitability + Additional Question

Maariv Poll Question: Was the replacement of Yuli Edelstein with Boaz Bismuth as Chair of the Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee appropriate or inappropriate?

• 52% Inappropriate.
• 24% Appropriate.
• 24% Don’t Know.

It’s been a while since the last Maagar Mochot poll was released, so I’m sharing a special post. There are three scenarios: Eisenkot runs alone, Eisenkot runs with Bennett and Eisenkot runs with Lapid.

In the scenario where Eisenkot runs alone, Bennett 2026 and Likud are tied at 24 seats each. The contest for third place is tight between Golan, Lieberman, and Deri. Eisenkot secures four seats, passing the threshold, while Smotrich does not.

If Eisenkot joins Bennett, Lapid loses three seats, Golan drops one seat, Gantz falls below the threshold, and Smotrich crosses it. In the scenario where Eisenkot joins Lapid, their combined seat total remains the same as if they ran separately; however, Gantz falls below the threshold, and Smotrich passes it.

The Bennett Bloc holds 62 seats in the first scenario, compared to 57 and 58 seats in the other two scenarios.

More analysis and additional polls will be available this weekend.

The Maagar Mochot poll for Channel 13 was conducted on 23 July 2025 among a sample of 504 respondents and has a statistical margin of error of ±4.4%.

Additional Questions:

It is impossible to calculate an average of 11 different polls from five polling companies covering five different types of scenarios, and that is without pointing out the week’s political developments that changed on a daily basis.

News recap: The coalition did not vote on a bill to regulate the recruitment of Haredim. United Torah Judaism resigned from its position in the government and coalition. Shas resigned from most of its positions in the government but retained its positions in the coalition. Both Smotrich and Ben-Gvir are threatening to leave the government if they do not like the ceasefire agreement being formed with Hamas. On the opposition side, Eisenkot took a cheap shot at Bennett during the Calcalist conference. In addition, Hadash-Taal leader Odeh managed to survive the attempt to oust him from the Knesset.

How it played out in the polls: Continuing the trend since Eisenkot’s split from Gantz, in most polls neither Netanyahu nor Bennett manage to reach 61 seats for a stable coalition without an Arab party. Likud remains the largest party in all polls, except for a scenario poll in which Eisenkot is running as Bennett’s number 2. There is no poll or scenario poll that would oust Bennett from the leadership of the opposition bloc. In a head-to-head poll conducted by Kantar, Bennett leads Netanyahu by 39%-35%.

In scenarios where Eisenkot does not run, there is a race for third place between Golan and Lieberman. Both Smotrich and Gantz pass the threshold in most of the six polls. Smotrich does not pass in the Kantar and Gantz in two Direct Polls.

In scenarios where Eisenkot does run, the gap between Likud and Bennett widens (unless Eisenkot runs with Bennett). In four out of the five polls, Gantz does not pass the threshold, he passes in the Maariv poll. Lapid falls below the threshold in the Direct Polls. Smotrich does not pass the threshold in the three Midgam polls.

What to expect: Although the coalition no longer has a majority heading into the last week before the recess, the government is not expected to fall. The no-confidence motions on Monday are the last chance to bring down the government before October 20, and they are expected to be defeated. The voting this week on various bills will be interesting to follow. In addition, we will see whether Defense and Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Yuli Edelstein will submit a bill to regulate the recruitment of Haredim before the recess or whether he will be fired by the Prime Minister.

Possible developments during the recess include a ceasefire agreement with Hamas, the Haredi parties joining the coalition following a new draft law that was agreed upon, Eisenkot’s decision on his political future, the Arab parties agreeing to unite under the Joint List, Likud’s final approval or rejection of a merger with New Hope, and Bennett officially announcing his candidacy for prime minister.

Key to understanding the polls below:
Poll #1: i24NEWS / Direct Polls, 525 people and 4.2% margin of error. Two scenarios – Eisenkot doesn’t run vs Eisenkot runs with Bennett + question on support for dismissing the Attorney General.
Poll #2: Channel 12/Midgam, sample size and margin of error not listed. Three scenarios – Eisenkot runs alone, Eisenkot and Lapid, Eisenkot and Bennett.
Poll #3: Zman Yisrael/TOI/Takiata, 404 people and 4.8% margin of error. One scenario – Eisenkot doesn’t run + question on most influential issue for voters.
Poll #4: Channel 14/Direct Polls, 531 people, margin of error not listed. Two scenarios, neither with Eisenkot, one with Bennett and one without Bennett.
Poll #5: Maariv/Panels, 506 people and 4.4% margin of error. Two scenarios, with Eisenkot and without Eisenkot + 4 questions.
Poll #6: Kantar/Attila Somfalvi, sample size and margin of error not listed. One scenario – Eisenkot doesn’t run + questions on national inquiry commission and suitability for Prime Minister.

Table #1: Polls without Eisenkot

Table #2: Polls with Eisenkot

Table 3: Additional Questions