Israeli Political System at a Decision Point: 38 Days Until the 2026 Budget Deadline
If the coalition fails to pass the 2026 State Budget by April 1, Israeli law triggers an automatic election on June 30, four months earlier than scheduled. With 38 days remaining, polling data and coalition math now intersect directly with legislative survival.
Issue Trends
Budget Deadline and Coalition Constraints
The coalition’s immediate hurdle is the Haredi Draft Law. The legislation must pass with sufficient time before April 1 to secure the support of Shas and at least part of United Torah Judaism for the budget vote. If the draft bill passes, the budget likely passes. If the draft bill stalls, the budget becomes highly uncertain. The countdown is not symbolic. It is structural.
Leadership Consolidation
Across multiple polls, the prime ministerial matchup has consolidated into a two-person frame. Bennett remains the clear alternative to Netanyahu, with other opposition figures structurally squeezed out. The race operates within a binary structure.
Issue Environment
Two dominant voter patterns: Security: ~40% overall priority; over 50% among coalition voters. The Trust Gap: A persistent credibility deficit around October 7 framing. The trust gap is not collapsing the coalition, but it continues to cap its expansion potential.
Bloc Trends
The bloc map is stable, but competitive. Across five recent polls: The Bennett-aligned bloc is in the mid-to-high 50s, peaking at 60. The Netanyahu bloc is 50–52 in four polls. The outlier is Filber with 65.
The structural battleground centers on three variables: Turnout asymmetry. Arab party configuration (unified vs. split). Threshold survival or mergers among smaller lists. Small shifts in any of these variables could reverse the bloc advantage.
Eyes on the Threshold
Several parties consistently poll below the 3.25% electoral threshold. If one party crosses, it could shift 3–5 seats between blocs. If multiple parties fail, wasted votes could reshape the entire map, as seen in 2022. In this environment, survival is not marginal. It is determinative.
What to Watch Next
The primary development outside the Knesset shaping the next 38 days is narrative dominance. Which frame defines the campaign? Security, Cost of Living, Leadership fatigue. Security currently leads, but compressed timelines amplify volatility.
The clock is legislative. The polls are structural. The next month determines whether this becomes a budget crisis or an election campaign.
| Poll | Broadcaster / Publisher | Pollster | Date | Sample Size | Margin of Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Poll 1 | Maariv | Lazar | Feb 18–19, 2026 | 501 | 4.4% |
| Poll 2 | Channel 12 | Midgam | Feb 19, 2026 | 501 | 4.4% |
| Poll 3 | Zman Israel | Taktika | Feb 18–19, 2026 | 500 | 4.4% |
| Poll 4 | Channel 13 | Maagar Mochot | Feb 17, 2026 | Not Published | Not Published |
| Poll 5 | Channel 14 | Filber | Feb 19, 2026 | 1,024 | Not Published |
| Party | Maariv | Channel 12 | Zman Yisrael | Channel 13 | Channel 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Likud (Netanyahu) | 26 | 27 | 27 | 25 | 34 |
| Bennett 2026 | 20 | 20 | 18 | 22 | 11 |
| Joint List (or Raamq) | 10 (5+5) | 12 | 11 (6+5) | 15 | 13 |
| Shas (Deri) | 8 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 10 |
| Democrats (Golan) | 11 | 10 | 9 | 7 | 9 |
| Yisrael Beiteinu (Lieberman) | 8 | 9 | 10 | 8 | 8 |
| Yashar (Eisenkot) | 13 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 9 |
| Otzma Yehudit (Ben Gvir) | 9 | 9 | 7 | 8 | 8 |
| United Torah Judaism | 7 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 9 |
| Yesh Atid (Lapid) | 8 | 7 | 7 | 9 | 5 |
| Blue & White (Gantz) | 2.9% | 2.9% | 4 | 1.6% | 2.1% |
| Religious Zionism (Smotrich) | 2.6% | 2.8% | 0% | 2.4% | 4 |
| Miluimnikim (Hendel) | 1.3% | 1.6% | 0% | 1.3% | – |
| – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Bennett Bloc | 60 | 58 / 56 | 57 / 56 | 55 | 42 |
| Netanyahu Bloc | 50 | 52 | 52 / 51 | 50 | 65 |
| Arab Bloc | 10 | 10 / 12 | 11 / 13 | 15 | 13 |
| Question | Poll | Results |
|---|---|---|
| Use full legal force against violent protests? | Maariv | Yes 69%, No 17%, Don’t Know 14% |
| Netanyahu vs Bennett | Channel 12 | Netanyahu 43%, Bennett 35%, Neither 18%, Don’t Know 4% |
| Netanyahu vs Eisenkot | Channel 12 | Netanyahu 45%, Eisenkot 28%, Neither 23%, Don’t Know 4% |
| Netanyahu vs Lieberman | Channel 12 | Netanyahu 44%, Neither 31%, Lieberman 21%, Don’t Know 4% |
| Netanyahu vs Lapid | Channel 12 | Netanyahu 47%, Neither 29%, Lapid 21%, Don’t Know 3% |
| Most suitable for PM | Channel 14 | Netanyahu 52%, Bennett 21%, Eisenkot 16%, Lapid 5%, Lieberman 4%, Gantz 2% |
| Main issue influencing vote | Channel 12 | Security 40%, Cost of Living 32%, Netanyahu tenure 19%, Don’t Know 9% |
| Coalition voters issue | Channel 12 | Security 53%, Cost of Living 29%, Don’t Know 10%, Netanyahu tenure 8% |
| Opposition voters issue | Channel 12 | Security 32%, Netanyahu tenure 32%, Cost of Living 31%, Don’t Know 5% |
| Remove the word “massacre” from October 7 memorial law? | Channel 13 | No 72%, Yes 10%, Don’t Know 18% |
Jeremy's Knesset Insider 