Jeremy's Knesset Insider

Issue Trends

In the suitability for prime minister polls, former prime minister Naftali Bennett continues to emerge as the principal challenger to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. In a direct head-to-head matchup, Channel 12 places Bennett within one percentage point of Netanyahu. In the multi-candidate Channel 14 poll, Bennett ranks second, holding a 12-point lead over the next closest challenger.

The dominant topic this week was the fallout from revelations of betrayal within Netanyahu’s office, following reports that senior advisers received funds from Qatar. A Maariv poll shows that 60% of respondents with an opinion do not believe Netanyahu’s claim that he was unaware of the payments. A separate Zman Yisrael poll on the severity of the affair finds 52% describing the allegations as “very serious,” with an additional 20% viewing them as serious but not necessarily criminal.

Bloc Trends

The Bennett Bloc reaches 60 seats in both the Maariv and Israel Hayom polls. The Netanyahu Bloc posts its strongest showing at 66 seats in the Channel 14 and i24NEWS polls. Meanwhile, the Bennett Bloc records 58 seats in the Channel 12 and Zman Yisrael surveys.

Likud finishes on 25 seats in five of the seven polls. Bennett 2026 polls between 20 and 22 seats in six of the seven surveys. The Democrats’ 11-seat result in the Channel 12 (Midgam) poll is the only instance this week in which a party other than Likud or Bennett 2026 exceeds ten seats.

Eyes on the Threshold

Smotrich fails to cross the electoral threshold in two of the seven polls, while Hendel’s party clears the threshold in only two polls. As in recent weeks, Blue and White (Gantz) and Balad fail to cross the threshold in any survey. Lapid’s Yesh Atid also falls below the threshold in one poll this week.

What to Expect Next

This was an unusually dense polling week, with seven different polling firms releasing surveys. With less than ten months remaining until the scheduled election on 27 October 2026, attention is increasingly shifting to parliamentary developments. Ongoing Knesset deliberations over the state budget and the coalition draft bill remain potential triggers for an early election.

Poll	Broadcaster / Publisher	Pollster	Fieldwork Dates	Sample Size	Margin of Error
Poll 1	Maariv	Lazar/Panels	Dec 24–25, 2025	500	±4.4%
Poll 2	Israel Hayom	Kantar	Dec 24, 2025	Not stated	Not stated
Poll 3	Channel 12	Midgam	Dec 25, 2025	500	±4.4%
Poll 4	Zman Israel	Tatika	Dec 24–25, 2025	500	±4.4%
Poll 5	Channel 13	Maagar Mochot	Dec 23, 2025	563	±4.1%
Poll 6	i24NEWS	Direct Polls	Dec 17, 2025 (Published Dec 20)	544	±4.1%
Poll 7	Channel 14	Filber	Dec 25, 2025	657	Not stated

Party / Bloc	Lazar/Panels	Kantar	Midgam	Tatika	Maagar Mochot	Direct Polls	Filber
Likud (Netanyahu)	25	25	25	25	25	35	34
Naftali Bennett 2026	21	21	22	20	22	20	12
Democrats (Golan)	10	10	11	10	8	9	10
Yesh Atid (Lapid)	9	8	9	9	9	2.7%	5
Yisrael Beiteinu (Lieberman)	10	9	9	10	10	9	9
Shas (Deri)	9	10	8	10	9	10	10
United Torah Judaism	7	7	7	8	7	9	9
Otzma Yehudit (Ben Gvir)	9	8	8	5	10	8	8
Ra’am (Abbas)	5	5	5	5	4	6	5
Hadash–Ta’al	5	5	5	5	6	5	5
Yashar (Eisenkot)	10	8	7	5	6	5	8
Religious Zionism (Smotrich)	2.9%	3%	4	4	4	4	5
Blue & White (Gantz)	2.2%	2.9%	1.9%	0	2.2%	1.8%	1.1%
Miluimnikim (Hendel)	2.4%	4	1.7%	4	1.4%	3%	–
Balad	1.8%	2.1%	1.3%	0	2.1%	2.6%	2.3%
Bennett Bloc	60	60	58	58	55	43	44
Netanyahu Bloc	50	50	52	52	55	66	66
Arab Bloc	10	10	10	10	10	11	10

Poll	Question	Results
Lazar/Panels – Maariv	Do you believe Prime Minister Netanyahu’s claim that he did not know his advisers received money from Qatar?	Believe: 33% (40% among opinion holders) • Do not believe: 50% (60%) • Don’t know: 17%
Midgam – Channel 12	Suitability for Prime Minister – Netanyahu vs Bennett	Netanyahu: 38% • Bennett: 37% • Don’t know: 25%
Midgam – Channel 12	Netanyahu vs Lapid	Netanyahu: 43% • Don’t know: 35% • Lapid: 22%
Midgam – Channel 12	Netanyahu vs Eisenkot	Netanyahu: 40% • Don’t know: 32% • Eisenkot: 28%
Tatika – Zman Yisrael	Severity of Qatargate allegations	Very serious: 52% • Serious but not criminal: 20% • No problem: 14% • No opinion: 12%
Filber – Channel 14	Suitability for Prime Minister (multi-candidate)	Netanyahu: 52% • Bennett: 25% • Eisenkot: 13% • Lapid: 5% • Lieberman: 4% • Gantz: 1%

Issue Trends

This week’s polling was shaped primarily by economic concerns and the state budget, alongside continued fallout from the Haredi draft debate. Haredi protests against IDF conscription and allegations of intimidation directed at coalition members opposing the current draft bill featured prominently in the public discourse and appear to have influenced voter sentiment.

Bloc Trends

Across the week’s polling, the Bennett Bloc posted modest gains, increasing by two seats in the Zman Israel poll and by one seat in the Maariv poll. In contrast, the Channel 14 poll showed a one-seat increase for the Netanyahu Bloc, coming at the expense of the Arab Bloc.

Eyes on the Threshold

Religious Zionism (Smotrich) and the Reservists (Yoaz Hendel) each clear the electoral threshold in only one poll. Blue and White (Gantz) and Balad fail to cross the threshold in any poll, continuing a multi-week trend. As a result, all four parties remain at high risk, increasing the likelihood of withdrawals or mergers aimed at avoiding failure to enter the Knesset.

What to Expect Next

Polling volume declined this week due to Hanukkah and may remain limited in the coming days. Politically, attention will stay focused on deliberations over the state budget and the Haredi draft bill, both of which are expected to remain central drivers of the campaign narrative.

Publisher	Pollster	Fieldwork Dates	Sample Size	Margin of Error
Maariv	Lazar & Panels	December 17–18, 2025	500	±4.4%
Zman Israel	Tatika	December 17–18, 2025	500	±4.4%
Channel 14	Filber	December 18, 2025	491	Not stated

Party	Bloc	Maariv	Zman Israel	Channel 14
Likud (Netanyahu)	Netanyahu Bloc	25	26	36
Bennett 2026	Bennett Bloc	22	20	11
The Democrats (Golan)	Bennett Bloc	10	10	11
Shas (Deri)	Netanyahu Bloc	9	10	11
Yisrael Beiteinu (Lieberman)	Bennett Bloc	9	10	10
Yesh Atid (Lapid)	Bennett Bloc	9	10	4
Yashar (Eisenkot)	Bennett Bloc	10	6	8
United Torah Judaism	Netanyahu Bloc	7	8	8
Otzma Yehudit (Ben Gvir)	Netanyahu Bloc	9	6	7
Hadash–Ta’al	Arab Bloc	5	5	5
Ra’am (Abbas)	Arab Bloc	5	5	5
(Parties that do not consistently pass the threshold)	—	—	—	—
Religious Zionism (Smotrich)	Netanyahu Bloc	2.1%	0	4
Miluimnikim (Hendel)	Bennett Bloc	3.0%	4	—
Blue and White (Gantz)	Bennett Bloc	2.3%	0	1.7%
Balad	Arab Bloc	1.4%	0	2.4%
Bloc Totals	—	Bennett Bloc 60 / Netanyahu Bloc 50 / Arab Bloc 10	Bennett Bloc 60 / Netanyahu Bloc 50 / Arab Bloc 10	Bennett Bloc 44 / Netanyahu Bloc 66 / Arab Bloc 10

Poll	Question	Results
Maariv	Willingness among opposition voters to include Ra’am in a future coalition to form a government without Likud and Netanyahu	61% support inclusion of Ra’am; 25% oppose; 14% undecided
Channel 14	Suitability for Prime Minister	Netanyahu: 55%; Bennett: 17%; Eisenkot: 15%; Lapid: 7%; Lieberman: 5%; Gantz: 1%

This week’s polling underscores Naftali Bennett’s emergence as the dominant alternative in the national leadership landscape. Voters increasingly identify Bennett as the most credible challenger, and in head-to-head prime-minister matchups he now performs almost on par with the incumbent, well ahead of all other contenders.

Issue Trends

This week’s polling cycle places leadership and economic sentiment squarely at the center of public opinion. In head-to-head matchups for prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu leads Naftali Bennett, yet both perform notably better than the rest of the field. Against Yair Lapid and Gadi Eisenkot, the “Don’t Know” category actually outperforms both challengers, underscoring significant voter hesitation about the current political bench beyond Netanyahu and Bennett.

Among opposition voters, Bennett emerges as the preferred leader, despite not holding a Knesset seat. His advantage over Eisenkot, Liberman, Lapid, and Golan signals both a vacuum in the elected opposition and the resonance of Bennett’s centrist-right positioning with voters searching for an alternative.

Policy sentiment is equally decisive. A clear majority opposes the government’s draft-exemption legislation, and most respondents say its primary purpose is to exempt most Haredim from service rather than increase enlistment. Meanwhile, nearly half say cost-of-living pressure will influence their next vote to the same extent as in 2022, while more than a third say it will play an even larger role, making it a dominant electoral issue moving forward.

Bloc Trends

Across nearly all polls, the Bennett bloc continues to outperform the Netanyahu bloc, reaffirming the competitive nature of the political landscape and the continuing erosion of automatic pro-Netanyahu support. Within the blocs, Avigdor Liberman and Yair Golan show remarkably stable ranges (9–11 seats), Lapid fluctuates more dramatically (4–10 seats), and Eisenkot shows modest, steady performance (5–8 seats). These dynamics illustrate the fluidity within Bennett’s bloc, with no single figure consolidating broad support beyond the leader.

Eyes on the Threshold

The threshold battles remain highly volatile. Benny Gantz fails to cross the electoral threshold in any survey, ranging from a high of 3 percent to a low of 1.2 percent. Bezalel Smotrich passes the threshold in only two polls, peaking at four seats but dropping to as low as 2 percent in others. Hendel has a high of four seats and a low of 1.6 percent, while Balad continues to hover below the threshold, polling between 2.8 percent and 1.3 percent. These margins underscore a crowded and unstable environment at the bottom of the political spectrum, with several parties at risk of wasting votes.

What to Expect Next

With the government budget now approved, political attention, and the polling that follows it, is expected to keep shifting heavily toward cost-of-living issues. In wake of budget talks in Knesset, inflation, wages, and consumer prices are likely to dominate the coming news cycle and voter sentiment.

Pollster	Publisher	Date	Sample Size	Margin of Error
Tatika	Zman Yisrael	10–11 Dec 2025	500	4.4%
Midgam	Channel 12	11 Dec 2025	503	4.4%
Maagar Mochot	Channel 13	5 Dec 2025	—	—
Lazar/Panels	Maariv	10–11 Dec 2025	500	4.4%
Filber	Channel 14	11 Dec 2025	—	—

Party	Zman Yisrael	Channel 12	Channel 13	Maariv	Channel 14
Likud	28	27	23	28	35
Bennett	21	22	19	20	13
Yesh Atid	10	9	9	8	4
Shas	10	9	10	9	11
Yisrael Beiteinu	10	9	10	11	10
Democrats	9	11	10	11	10
UTJ	8	7	6	7	8
Otzma Yehudit	6	8	9	8	7
Ra’am	5	5	4	5	6
Yashar	5	8	6	8	7
Hadash–Ta’al	4	5	6	5	5
Miluimnikim	4	1.6%	4	2.8%	4
Religious Zionism	2.4%	2%	4	2.8%	4
Blue & White	1.8%	2.9%	3%	2.9%	1.2%
Balad	—	1.3%	2.8%	2%	2.5%

Poll	Bennett Bloc	Netanyahu Bloc	Arab Bloc
Zman Yisrael	59	52	9
Channel 12	59	51	10
Channel 13	58	52	10
Maariv	58	52	10
Channel 14	44	65	11

Poll	Question	Result
Channel 12	PM suitability: Netanyahu vs Bennett	Netanyahu 39%, Bennett 33%, Don’t Know 28%
Channel 12	PM suitability: Netanyahu vs Lapid	Netanyahu 43%, Don’t Know 35%, Lapid 22%
Channel 12	PM suitability: Netanyahu vs Eisenkot	Netanyahu 42%, Don’t Know 31%, Eisenkot 27%
Channel 12	Best opposition leader	Bennett 33%, Eisenkot 18%, Liberman 16%, Lapid 13%, Golan 10%, Don’t Know 10%
Channel 12	Cost of living importance	Same 48%, More 36%, Don’t Know 9%, Less 7%,
Channel 13	Draft-exemption bill support	Oppose 57%, Support 29%, Don’t Know 14%
Channel 13	Draft bill purpose	Exempt Haredim 49%, Increase recruitment 38%, Don’t Know 13%
Channel 14	PM suitability (full field)	Netanyahu 53%, Bennett 22%, Eisenkot 10%, Lapid 7%, Liberman 7%, Gantz 1%, Don’t Know 0%