Jeremy's Knesset Insider

The main highlight from this week’s four polls is the battle around the electoral threshold. Gantz and Smotrich each clear the threshold in one poll, while Miluimnikim and Balad remain below it in all surveys. This marks the fourth consecutive week in which Eisenkot fails to reach double digits in any poll. In the prime minister suitability questions, Bennett continues to stand out as Netanyahu’s strongest challenger in both head-to-head matchups and overall rankings.

The Bennett bloc continues to show strong upward momentum, reaching as high as 62 seats in the Maariv poll and 58–59 seats in three other surveys, with the Filber poll standing out as a clear outlier. With the exception of Filber, the bloc consistently polls at or above 58 seats, indicating solid structural support across different polling methods and samples.

The Netanyahu bloc receives 48–52 seats in four of the polls. Excluding the Filber survey, the bloc appears stuck at roughly 50–52 seats, showing no signs of upward movement.

The Arab bloc remains the most stable of all, with minimal variation—consistently between 9 and 11 seats.

A particularly notable data point appears in the Maariv poll, where Bennett’s party ties Likud. Historically, when Bennett’s party draws even with or surpasses Likud, his bloc tends to cross the 61-seat threshold.

Eyes on the threshold: Smotrich crossed the electoral threshold in two of the six polls (Maagar Mochot and Filber), while Gantz’s Blue & White passed in just one (Tatika). Balad and Hendel’s Miluimnikim failed to cross in any poll.

Bloc Trends: Bloc alignments remained unchanged from last week in the Kantar, Midgam, Filber, and Tatika polls. The Bennett Bloc gained two seats overall, rising from 59 to 61, driven by Bennett 2026’s increase from 19 to 21 seats. The party added two seats in the Tatika and one in the Filber poll.